Economic Costs of Brucellosis Update, Spring 2016

Transcription

1 Economic Costs of Brucellosis Update, Spring 2016 Dannele Peck, Bryan Wilson, Trent Roberts, Shane Ruff, Kari Boroff, Mandy Kauffman, Walt Cook, John Ritten, Chris Bastian, Brant Schumaker Funding Sources: Wyoming Wildlife/Livestock Disease Research Partnership, State of Wyoming s Federal Natural Resources Policy Account, State of Wyoming Agricultural Producers Research Grant Program, UW-Ag Experiment Station, Paul Lowham Research Fund, USDA-APHIS Apr 13, 2016 BCT Meeting, Pinedale, WY

2 Cattle Elk Cost of Brucellosis & Prevention in Cattle Brucellosis Management in Elk Wilson (2011) Cost of Brucellosis in Cattle Kauffman (2010) Econ Conseq. of Reduced Elk Numbers: Demand for Hunting Roberts (2011) Prevention Activities: Cost & Breakeven Effectiveness Boroff (2013) Cost of Elk Management Activities Ruff (2013) Cost & Risk of Switching from Cow/Calf to Stocker Kauffman (2013) Epidemiological Risk Model

3 Costs of a Cattle Herd Contracting Brucellosis: Depend on many factors Size of the index herd Number of contact herds involved Quarantine vs. Depopulation Length of quarantine Timing of quarantine Any pastures eligible for quarantine? Price of hay (& other inputs to the quarantine)

4 Questions for Producers to Consider 1) # Head? a) Cow/calf pairs + Repl. heifers + Yearlings 2) What month do you sell open or cull cows? 3) What month do you finish calving? 4) How many months is your winter feed season? Count # months btwn 2) and 3) Subtract # months reported in 4) Multiply by 30 days # Extra Days on Feed 5) Do you have quarantine eligible pasture? How many days could it support your herd?

5 Cost of a Case in Cattle (US$2010) Size of Index Herd 200 bred cows, 40 replc heifers, 140 yearlings 400 bred cows, 80 replc heifers, 280 yearlings 800 bred cows, 160 replc heifers, 560 yearlings Date Detected Jan 1st Jan 1st Jan 1st Number of Contact Herds Quarantine Length 12 months 12 months 12 months Quarantinable Pasture? No No No Extra Days Feeding Hay days 215 Price of Hay $89/ton $89/ton $89/ton Price of Open Heifer $1.08/lb. $1.08/lb $1.08/lb. Spay Yearling Heifers? Yes Yes Yes Total Cost (Prod+Gov t) $70,642 $146,299 $288,540 Avg Cost per Bred Cow $353/cow-calf-yrl $365/cow-calf-yrl $361/cow-calf-yrl Avg Cost per Head $186/head $192/head $190/head

6 Size of Index Herd 200 bred cows, 40 replc heifers, 140 yearlings Higher Hay Price = Bigger Cost US$ bred cows, 80 replc heifers, 280 yearlings US$ bred cows, 80 replc heifers, 280 yearlings Date Detected Jan 1st Jan 1st Jan 1st Number of Contact Herds Quarantine Length 12 months 12 months 12 months Quarantinable Pasture? No No No Extra Days Feeding Hay days 215 days Price of Hay $89/ton $89/ton $154/ton Price of Open Heifer $1.08/lb. $1.08/lb. $2.09/lb. Spay Yearling Heifers? Yes Yes Yes Total Cost (Prod+ Gov t) $70,642 $146,299 $273,583 Avg Cost per Bred Cow $353/cow-calf-yrl $365/cow-calf-yrl $684/cow-calf-yrl Avg Cost per Head $186/head $192/head $360/head Quarantine is MORE expensive when input PRICES (hay) are higher.

7 Bigger Herd = Bigger Cost (assuming12 mo. quar. = 215 extra days feeding) Costs per Cow/Calf/Yrlng (US$2010) Prod + Govt Total Costs (US$2010) $400 $350,000 $380 $360 $300,000 $340 $250,000 $320 $200,000 $300 $280 $150,000 $260 $100,000 $240 $50,000 $220 $ bred + 40 replc yrlngs 400 bred + 80 replc yrlngs 800 bred replc yrlng $0 200 bred + 40 replc yrlngs 400 bred + 80 replc yrlngs 800 bred replc yrlng

8 Shorter Quarantine = Smaller Cost (400 bred + 80 replc yrlngs) Prod + Govt Total Costs (US$2010) Cost per cow/calf/yrlng (US$2010) $160,000 $250 $140,000 $120,000 $200 $100,000 $150 $80,000 $60,000 $100 $40,000 $20,000 $50 $0 215 days extra feeding 75 days 45 days 15 days $0 215 days 75 days 45 days 15 days

9 In Summary Cost of your herd contracting brucellosis? Characteristics and circumstances matter! Time of year detected (closer to start of winter = better) Length of quarantine (shorter = better) Availability of Quarantine Pasture (available = better) Cost of hay (cheaper = better)

10 What can cattle producers do to reduce their herd s risk? Fence haystacks Call G&F to haze elk Adult booster vaccination Altern feeding schedule Spay heifers Delay grazing Hire a rider to haze elk Run steers/spayed heifers Economically, what should producers do?

11 Start Saving if possible Suppose you expect brucellosis once every 20 years. And when it happens, you expect a cost = $146K. Would sure be nice to have $146K when needed! Given 0% interest rate on savings account, Squirrel-away $7300 per yr ($146, years) Given 1% interest rate on savings account, Squirrel-away $6600 per yr Given 2% interest rate on savings account, Squirrel-away $6000 per yr

12 Cost of Prevention Activities Activity (for 400-head herd) Annual Cost (Prod + Gov) Fencing a Haystack $199 G&F Hazing of Elk 329 Adult Booster Vacc (1x) 797 Adult Booster Vacc (2x) 1,017 Spaying Heifers 2,365 Alternative Feeding 2,754 Hiring a Rider 14,194 Delayed Grazing 15,189

13 Benefit of Prevntn Activities? For many, we don t know. Given an activity s cost, how effective must it be to justify? Breakeven Level of Effectiveness The level of effectiveness at which an activity s expected benefit would be just large enough to offset its cost.

14 Breakeven Eff w/ High Risk Activity (400-head herd) Annual Cost BLE (10%, $146K) WGFD Hazing of Elk $199 ~1% Fencing a Haystack 329 2% Adult Booster Vacc (1x) 797 5% Adult Booster Vacc (2x) 1,017 7% Spaying Heifers 2,365 16% Alternative Feeding 2,754 19% Hiring a Rider 14,194 97% Delayed Grazing 15, %

15 Breakeven Eff w/ Lower Risk Activity (400-head herd) BLE (10%, $146K) BLE (1%, $146K) WGFD Hazing of Elk 1% 14% Fencing a Haystack 2% 22% Adult Booster Vacc 1 5% 54% Adult Booster Vacc 2 7% 70% Spaying Heifers 16% 162% Alternative Feeding 19% 188% Hiring a Rider 97% 970% Delayed Grazing 104% 1038%

16 Breakeven Eff w/ Low Risk & Lower Cost Activity (400-head herd) BLE (1%, $146K) BLE (1%, $53K) WGFD Hazing of Elk 14% 37% Fencing a Haystack 22% 62% Adult Booster Vacc 1 54% 132% Adult Booster Vacc 2 70% 190% Spaying Heifers 162% 442% Alternative Feeding 188% 515% Hiring a Rider 970% 2654% Delayed Grazing 1038% 2840%

17 If contract brucellosis, can t spread it So not test-eligible Eliminates risk of quarantine/culling Silver bullet of brucellosis problem??? 50% less profitable than cow-calf-yrlg (on avg) Higher risk of negative profit (43% vs 13%) Transition to stockers in 1 yr is costly & risky

18 Fencing Winter Pastures? Elk-proof fencing is expensive Material = ~$20K per mile; Labor = >$20K per mile Median ranch: ~9 mi; >$360K (lasts 15 yrs) >$24K per yr If you fence ranch A, elk might descend on ranch B Might need to fence all nearby winter pastures to risk

19 Concluding Thoughts Some prevention activities are econ. promising Depending on your level of risk Depending on the cost of quarantine Beware of CURES more costly than the DISEASE! We can narrow the list of worthwhile tools, but not identify the biggest bang per buck.

20 For more info, contact: Dannele Peck Special thanks to: Jim Logan, Bob Meyer, Thach Winslow, Brandon Scurlock, Eric Maichak, Frank Galey, Bruce Hoar, and the Brucellosis Coordination Team Questions? Photo credit: Mandy Kauffman

21 What about Elk-Management Activities? Cost-benefit analysis for reducing seroprevalence in elk Mandy Kauffman, Kari Boroff, DannelePeck, Brandon Scurlock, Walt Cook, Jim Logan, Tim Robinson, Brant Schumaker

22 Elk Management Activities Strain 19 Vaccination Low-Density Feeding (where possible) Test and Slaughter Benefits > Costs?

23

24

25

26 Concluding Thoughts Managing brucellosis in elk: costs > benefits (for most) Prevention activities in cattle more promising (for some) We can narrow the list of econ-worthwhile tools But, we have not identified which of the remaining activities (cow or elk) has biggest bang per buck. Local context and circumstances matter! Our results do not account for geographic spread of brucellosis. Causes? Which mgmt activities help?

27 For more info, contact: Dannele Peck Special thanks to: Jim Logan, Bob Meyer, Thach Winslow, Brandon Scurlock, Eric Maichak, Frank Galey, Bruce Hoar, and the Brucellosis Coordination Team Questions? Photo credit: Mandy Kauffman