Global Monthly October 2016

Transcription

1 Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Global Monthly Index, >5 = expansion 5 Output Export orders 5 9

2 Sept ' Dec '5 Sept ' Sept ' Dec '5 Sept ' Bail out / state aid measure Trade defense Trade finance Import tariff Localization requirement Export taxes Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan- Apr- Jul- Index, >5 = expansion 53 Output Average since Number of measures 5 5 Percent FOMC median Market-based expectations 3 7 Long-run

3 Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Percent, 3m-o-3m saar Industrial production Retail sales U.S. dollars per pound.5..3 Exchange rate -year bond yield. Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Percent Percent

4 Percent change in terms of trade Brazil Nigeria South Africa Russia Percent, year-on-year Index, >5 is expansion Q3 average Q average - - South Africa Malaysia Brazil Colombia Nigeria Indonesia -3 Russia Percent change in REER

5 Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Percent, y-o-y 8 Commodity importers Commodity exporters Commodity importers ex. China US$ billions EM equity funds EM bond funds Percentage change Energy Metal Agriculture 5

6 Japan Euro Area Denmark Switzerland Sweden Hungary Denmark Spain France Germany Sweden Net interest income margin rate volume Non-interest charge margin rate volume Non-interest charge Net percent 3 Past six months Next six months Enterprises Households for House Purchase Percentage points Range from -present Pre-NIRP Current Percent Latest Pre-NIRP

7 3 5 Index, Jan = 5 World Euro Area Japan Basis points Average Median Percent Financial sector CDS Financial sector equities (RHS) -. Index, Q= Euro Area Sweden Japan 5 Switzerland Denmark 3 9 7

8 Global Economic Prospects - January 7 (forthcoming) Commodity Markets Outlook - Negative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications Commodity Markets Outlook - July : From Energy Prices to Food Prices: Moving in Tandem Global Economic Prospects - June : Divergences and Risks Commodity Markets Outlook - April : Resource Development in an Era of Cheap Commodities Global Economic Prospects - January : Spillovers amid Weak Growth Does Governing Law Affect Bond Spreads? The World Is Not Yet Flat: Transport Costs Matter! Informality in the Process of Development and Growth Unequal Opportunity, Unequal Growth Global Talent Flows Strategic Investment Funds: Opportunities and Challenges Retooling Poverty Targeting Using Out-of-Sample Validation and Machine Learning Economic Integration across Latin America: Evidence from Labor Markets, 99 3 Faraway or Nearby? Domestic and International Spillovers in Patenting and Product Innovation Russian Federation: How Services Contribute to Competitiveness (Percent, y-o-y) (Percent y-o-y) Recent releases: Sept 3, - Oct, Upcoming releases: Oct 3, - Nov, Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Netherlands 9/3/ GDP Q.8 %.3 %.5% Singapore /3/ GDP Q3. % Singapore 9/3/ CPI AUG -.3 % -.% -.7 % China /8/ GDP Q3.7 % Germany 9/9/ CPI SEP.7 %. %. % South Korea // GDP Q3 3.3 % Japan 9/9/ CPI AUG -.5 % -.5 % -. % UK /7/ GDP Q3. % Italy 9/3/ CPI SEP. % % -. % France /8/ GDP Q3.3 % Denmark 9/3/ GDP Q.3 %.%.3 % United States /8/ GDP Q3.3 % Indonesia /3/ CPI SEP 3.% 3.%.8% Belgium /8/ GDP Q3. % Philippines // CPI SEP.3 %.%.8 % Austria /3/ GDP Q3. % Netherlands // CPI SEP. %.3 %. % Eurozone /3/ GDP Q3. % Mexico /7/ CPI SEP 3.%.9%.7% Indonesia /7/ GDP Q3 5.% Brazil /7/ CPI SEP 8.5% 8.% 9.% Malaysia // GDP Q3. % Czech Republic // CPI SEP.5 %. % Japan /3/ GDP Q3.7 % Denmark // CPI SEP. %.3 %. % Greece // GDP Q3 -.9 % Greece // CPI SEP -. % -.7% -.9 % Italy /5/ GDP Q3.8 % Hungary // CPI SEP. % -. % Hungary /5/ GDP Q3.8 % Germany /3/ CPI SEP.7 %. %. % Czech Republic /5/ GDP Q. % Italy // CPI SEP. %. % -. % Netherlands /5/ GDP Q3.8 % Singapore // GDP Q3. %.%. % Poland /5/ GDP Q3 3. % China /8/ GDP Q3.7 %.7 %.7 % Portugal /5/ GDP Q3.9 % United States /8/ CPI SEP.5 %.5 %. % Thailand // GDP Q3 3.5 % Malaysia /9/ CPI SEP.5 % 3 %.5 % Philippines // GDP Q3 7. % 8

9 (Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized) Q3 Q Q Q Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Industrial Production, sa World Advanced Economies Emerging Market and Developing Economies Inflation, sa Commodity-exporting EMDE Other EMDE East Asia and Pacific East Asia excl. China Europe and Central Asia Latin America and Caribbean Middle East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa World Advanced Economies Emerging Market and Developing Economies Commodity-exporting EMDE Other EMDE East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and Caribbean Middle East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa (Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) Q3 Q Q Q Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Exports, Nominal, US$, sa World Advanced Economies Emerging Market and Developing Economies Commodity-exporting EMDE Other EMDE East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and Caribbean Middle East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Imports, Nominal, US$, sa World Advanced Economies Emerging Market and Developing Economies Commodity-exporting EMDE Other EMDE East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and Caribbean Middle East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa International Reserves, US$ World Advanced Economies Emerging Market and Developing Economies Commodity-exporting EMDE Other EMDE East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and Caribbean Middle East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

10 (Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period ) 5 5 MRV 5 Q3 Q Q Q Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Interest rates and LIBOR (percent) U.S. Fed Funds Effective ECB repo US$ LIBOR 3-months EURIBOR 3-months US -yr Treasury yield German Bund, yr Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets Asia Europe Latin America & Caribbean Middle East Africa Stock Indices (end of period) Global (MSCI) Advanced Economies ($ Index) United States (S&P 5) Europe (S&P Euro 35) Japan (Nikkei 5) Emerging Market and Developing Economies (MSCI) EM Asia EM Europe EM Europe & Middle East EM Latin America & Caribbean Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) Advanced Economies Euro Area Japan Emerging and Developing Economies Brazil China Egypt India Russia South Africa Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate (index) Table E: Commodity Prices 5 5 MRV 5 Q3 Q Q Q Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Energy Non-energy Agriculture Metals and minerals Memo items: Crude oil, average ($/bbl) Gold ($/toz) Baltic Dry Index