EU Market Situation for Poultry. Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets 23 July 2015

Transcription

1 EU Market Situation for Poultry Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets 23 July 2015

2 uro Exchange rate 3,5 3,0 1 Euro =... US$ / BRZ Real/ BRZ Real USA $ 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 I 2008 I 2009 I 2010 I 2011 I 2012 I 2013 I 2014 I 2015 I source:

3 Futures for Soybeans in US$ct/ Bushel (nearby = 2013 & 2014) Delivery: 01 Nearby 2015 Aug 2015 Nov July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec Feb Mch Apr May Jun July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

4 uro/ Tonn Futures for Feed wheat EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2014 & 2015) Delivery: Nearby 2015 Nov May July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Feb Mrch Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

5 /Tonn Futures for Maize EU (Euronext) (Nearby = ) Delivery: Nearby 2015 Aug Nov July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Feb Mrt Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

6 Euro / tonne Price of Basic Ingredients Soft wheat (EU) Barley (EU) Maïs (EU) Soja (CAF) Hulls (EU) April Juil Oct Apr Jul Oct Apr Jul Oct Apr Jul Oct

7 Change in Poultry slaughter I-IV 2015 compared to same period ,0% 8,0% 4,0% 0,0% 12,8% 12,7% 9,6% 8,3% 7,0% 6,1% 4,4% 3,3% 3,0% 2,9% 2,2% 2,2% 1,8% 1,7% 1,1% 0,9% 0,6% 0,0% 0,0% 3,1% -4,0% -0,2% -0,4% -0,4% -1,0% -2,0% -2,2% -3,8% -5,0% -8,0% PL HU CY RO SE LT AT PT FR IT BG LV BE CZ EI UK NL EE SK SF DE EL SI ES MT DK HR EU

8 Placings of Broiler chicks (1 000 pieces) Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

9 Parameters for the calculation of the estimated production of broilers Parameter National Average Live weight (kg) at Slaughter National Average Carcass yield (%) National Average Mortality (%) National Average Period of rearing (days) BE BG CZ DK DE EE GR ES FR HR IE IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK ,40 2,10 1,90 2,10 2,11 2,39 2,40 2,66 2,02 1,99 2,04 2,60 2,64 2,10 2,44 2,40 2,33 2,55 2,23 1,83 2,44 1,85 2,20 2,20 2,12 2,34 1,91 2,23 68% 73,0% 74,0% 75,0% 70,0% 71,0% 75,0% 70,2% 67,0% 69,4% 71,7% 70,1% 77,0% 74,4% 75,1% 68% 70,1% 74,0% 66,0% 75,0% 69,9% 72,4% 70,5% 72,5% 72,5% 75,0% 69,0% 2,0% 4,3% 4,0% 2,5% 40,0 51* 35,0 35, % (l.w) 4.0% (h.w.) ,5% - 3,0% 6,0% 5,2% 4,2% 3,7% 2,9% 5,0% 3,2% 3,3% 5,0% 2,0% 4,2% 6,5% 3,5% 4,2% 4,2% 2,6% 2,5% 3,9% 3,5% 3,5% 4,8% ,0 43,5 37,7 35,0 36,9 35/46 47,4 37,1 40,0 40,0 41,5 45,0 41,0 35,00 42,0 37,8 41,0 37,7 38,5 37,0 42,0

10 Forecast and Production of broiler (In tonnes) Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

11 uro/ 100kg Evolution of the weekly EU average price for Broiler ,25 /100 kg 175 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: MSs weekly communications Moy

12 Broiler prices in EU, USA and Brazil in uro/ 100kg 200,00 175,00 191,99 182,41 150,00 125,00 100,00 103,08 75, EU = weighted avg of MS prices Broiler 65% US = weekly USDA prices Fresh chicken grade A,Chicago BR = avg of prices in main producing states (Aveworld.com.br) EU broiler US broiler uro BR Broil uro/ (Ave world)

13 Euro/ T (feed) Euro/ 100kg (Broiler) Price development of Compound feed for Broilers, a Broiler Cereal-Feedmix and Broiler price margin broiler/ comp feed (2.7 (2011) (2014)) Cereal-mix Compound feed Broiler Avg. Margin (93,99 /100kg) NB. Comp. Feed 2014 =Forecast as from February Cereal mix and Poultry = Forecast as from June 2015.

14 Remainder uro/ 100kg 100KG Broiler minus feedcost for Broilers feedconversionrate = 2,7 (2011) - 2,4 (2014) Marge Average Marge Broiler 2012 Marge Broiler Marge Broiler 2014 Marge Broiler 2015

15 TRADE

16 Imports of Poultry meat from selected origins May 15 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to -May 14 Brazil ,9% ,3% ,2% ,7% ,8% - 22% Thailand ,2% ,8% ,0% ,9% ,1% + 17% Ukraine 31 0,0% 276 0,0% ,4% ,2% +++ Chile ,2% ,9% ,7% ,1% ,8% - 24% China ,6% ,8% ,2% ,4% ,1% - 17% Argentina ,8% ,6% ,3% ,3% ,9% - 24% Sw itzerland ,1% ,4% ,5% ,5% ,3% - 45% USA 129 0,0% 352 0,0% 193 0,0% 43 0,0% 804 0,2% % Others ,2% ,1% ,9% ,8% ,5% #N/A EXTRA EU % change + 1% - 6% + 3% - 7,0%

17 Tonnes cw 1000 EUR EU Poultry meat Imports IMPORTS of Poultry Meat into EU (Tonnes cwe) IMPORTS of Poultry Meat into EU (1000 EUR) May 13 -May 14 -May May 13 -May 14 -May 15 0 Brazil Thailand Ukraine Chile China Other origins Brazil Thailand Ukraine Chile China Other origins

18 in Tonnes cwe Imports of selected Poultry products FROZEN PREPARED SALTED OTHERS

19 Canada South Africa Russia (up to Apr) South Africa Russia (up to Apr) Canada EU Japan EU Mexico (up to Apr) Japan China + H. Kong China + H. Kong Mexico (up to Apr) Qty in 1000 Tonnes Main Importers of POULTRY Products (up to May) Source : GTA & Eurostat (excl.: live animals) (up to May) 2015 (up to May) 0

20 Exports of Poultry Meat to Selected Destinations May 15 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to -May 14 South Africa ,7% ,2% ,1% ,5% ,4% - 12% Benin ,9% ,8% ,8% ,9% ,9% + 8% Saudi Arabia ,7% ,4% ,9% ,2% ,8% + 10% Philippines ,1% ,2% ,5% ,8% ,4% + 128% Hong Kong ,4% ,8% ,2% ,0% ,9% - 25% Ghana ,9% ,8% ,3% ,8% ,6% + 49% Ukraine ,8% ,2% ,3% ,3% ,2% + 29% Gabon ,8% ,8% ,8% ,0% ,8% + 40% Congo (Dem. Rep.) ,1% ,4% ,0% ,2% ,6% + 37% For.JRep.Mac ,8% ,3% ,6% ,2% ,3% - 1% Russia ,1% ,9% ,7% ,5% 337 0,1% - 99% Other Destinations ,7% ,1% ,0% ,4% ,1% Extra-EU % change + 1% - 0% + 5% + 0,1%

21 Tonnes cw 1000 EUR EU Poultry meat Export EU EXPORTS of Poultry Meat (Tonnes cwe) EU EXPORTS of Poultry Meat (1000 EUR) May 13 -May 14 -May May 13 -May 14 -May South Africa Benin Saudi Arabia Philippines Hong Kong Other destinations * South Africa Benin Saudi Arabia Philippines Hong Kong Other destinations * * countries trading less than Tons * countries trading less than ('000 EUR)

22 Exports of selected Poultry products I n t o n s C W E FROZEN PREPARED FRESH OTHERS

23 in 1000 Tonnes cwe EU Poultry meat Trade Balance IMPORTS EXPORTS May 15 0

24 Thailand EU Turkey (up to Apr) Argentina Thailand EU Turkey (up to Apr) Argentina China + H. Kong China + H. Kong Qty in 1000 Tonnes United States United States Brazil Brazil Main Exporters of POULTRY Products (up to May) Source : GTA & Eurostat (excl. live animals) (up to May) 2015 (up to May) 0

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