Evaluating the net effects of climate change on tick-borne disease in Panama. Erin Welsh November 18, 2015
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1 Evaluating the net effects of climate change on tick-borne disease in Panama Erin Welsh November 18, 2015
2 Climate Change & Vector-Borne Disease Wide-scale shifts in climate will affect vectors and the pathogens they transmit Largest gap is the lack of knowledge of what determines current vector & pathogen distributions Overarching goal is to characterize current biology of a vector-borne disease system and model how it s going to change
3 Background Ticks in Panama Over 40 species of ticks in Panama Several tick species carry pathogens of public health importance Rickettsia rickettsii (Spotted Fever Rickettsiosis)
4 Background Tick Ecology Obligate blood-feeders with multi-stage life cycle Ticks spend majority of life off host (up to 98%) Off-host mortality is caused primarily by: Desiccation (temperature, humidity, life stage) Pathogenic fungi Photo courtesy of K. Bartowitz
5 Background Panama Monthly Average Precipitation 2014 Field Season Ongoing 2015 Field Season Dry: December to May Wet: May to December Climate change in Panama: Adapted from Overall reduced precipitation, though specific predictions vary
6 Precipitation Gradient A Proxy for Future Climate Change San Lorenzo NP Soberanía NP Camino de Cruces NP Spotted Fever Rickettsiosis cases Study Site San Lorenzo NP Soberanía NP Camino de Cruces NP Annual Precipitation 3200mm 2500mm 1900mm
7 Research Questions What are the relative contributions of certain abiotic and biotic factors in determining tick and pathogen distributions in Panama? Abiotic: temperature, humidity, rainfall, vapor pressure deficit Biotic: terrestrial vertebrate abundance How may climate change impact future tick distributions and tick-borne disease risk in Panama?
8 Methods 1. Drag sampling Measure relative abundance of ticks Overall abundance, life stage, species diversity Sampled weekly at each site 2. Survival enclosures Nymphs and adults placed in mesh bags 3. Camera traps 4. Pathogen screening Tick Bomb!
9 Seasonal Abundance Results - Larvae Tick density not associated with average weekly rainfall, p=0.3544
10 Seasonal Abundance Results - Nymphs Tick density negatively associated with average weekly rainfall, p<0.0001
11 Seasonal Abundance Results - Adults Tick density negatively associated with average weekly rainfall, p=0.003
12 Species Composition Across Sites
13 Temporal Variation in Abundance - Dry Density (nymphs/m 2 ) Dry Wet Week
14 Temporal Variation in Abundance - Medium Density (nymphs/m 2 ) Dry Wet Week
15 Temporal Variation in Abundance - Wet Density (nymphs/m 2 ) Dry Wet
16 Survival Enclosures Measured survival of communities of nymph and adult ticks across isthmus Local enclosures Monitored survival weekly Measured temperature and humidity Photo courtesy of A. Gardner
17 Nymph vs Adult Survival Nymphs experience higher mortality compared to adults Hazard Ratio=2.257 p<0.0001
18 Survival between sites Nymphs No difference p= Adults Higher mortality at dry site p= Hazard Ratio=1.862
19 Summary Abundance & Survival Adult and nymph tick abundance at the dry and medium sites were negatively associated with rainfall Significantly fewer nymphs at wet site; no difference in larval abundance Suggests something is happening to reduce recruitment Nymphs had higher mortality than adults Adults at dry site had higher mortality than adults at medium site
20 Camera Trapping Estimate relative abundance of small- to medium-sized terrestrial vertebrates across sites Deploy 9 camera traps per site (27 total) in 3x3 grid
21 Camera Trapping Preliminary Results Tamandua mexicana Odocoileus virginianus Cuniculus paca Leopardus pardalis Dasyprocta punctata Dasypus novemcinctus Canis latrans Pecari tajacu
22 Pathogen Detection Pathogens in Panama: Rickettsia rickettsii (Spotted Fever Rickettsiosis) Spotted Fever Group Rickettsiae (R. amblyommii, R. rhipicephali, R. felis, R. parkeri, others) Ehrlichia chafeensis (human ehrlichiosis) Ehrlichia canis (canine ehrlichiosis) Anaplasma marginale (anaplasmosis) Anaplasma phagocytophilum (anaplasmosis) Used PCR followed by reverse line blot (RLB) hybridization to screen for pathogen presence Focused on Rickettsia and Ehrlichia
23 Pathogen Detection Preliminary Results Total of 162 ticks screened (150 Amblyomma, 12 Haemaphysalis) 31 ticks positive for pathogen presence (19.1%) 20 ticks positive for Spotted Fever Group Rickttsiae (12.3%) 9 ticks positive for Ehrlichia canis (5.6%)
24 Next Steps: Structural Equation Model
25 Next Steps: Structural Equation Model
26 Acknowledgments University of Illinois Allan lab Carla Cáceres Jeff Brawn Allison Hansen Illinois Distinguished Fellowship isee & NRES: Warren Lavey and Dr. Holly Rosencranz Research Award NSF IGERT Explorer s Club Exploration Fund Grant Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute Owen McMillan Zoe Zilz Jamal Gaddis Riva Letchinger Salvatore Anzaldo Peter Marting Ummat Somjee STRI Short-Term Fellowship
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