European Parliament June 2013 Living with wolves in EU: challenges and strategies in wolf management across Europe LUIGI BOITANI, Chair Large Carnivore Initiative for Europe University of Rome
LCIE, an IUCN/SSC Specialist Group on the European Large Carnivores Bear Wolf Eurasian lynx Wolverine Iberian lynx To maintain and restore, in coexistence with people, viable populations of large carnivores as an integral part of ecosystems and landscapes across Europe
Wolf extermination in Europe 1770 (range in 1960s ) 1927
Wolf distribution in Europe 2006
2013 Karelian Wolf Scandinavian distribution in Europe Central European Lowlands Carpathian NW Iberian Alpine Sierra Morena Italian Peninsula Dinaric Balkan
Main wolf populations in Europe 2013 Scandinavian Karelian Central European Lowlands Carpathian NW Iberian Alpine Sierra Morena Italian Peninsula Dinaric Balkan
European wolf populations Wolf populations 2006-7 2011-12 Trend Iberia 2500 2500 Decrease? Sierra Morena 50 1 pack Decrease Western-Central Alps 120 32 packs (>160) Increase Italian peninsula 800 800 Stable Dinaric-Balkan 5000 4-5000 Stable? Carpathian 3500 3500 Stable Baltic/(Belorussia-Russia) 1000-(5000) 900-1400 Stable? Germany/Western Poland 50 170 Increase Finland-Russian Karelia 200 + 20000 150+? Decrease Scandinavia 130 250-300 Increase
Wolf number/trend in Europe 2012 POPULATION Last size estimate 2005 Scandinavian Sweden: 102-119 (+24 cross-border) Norway: 21 TOTAL: 147-164 Most recent estimate (2010, 2011 or 2012) Sweden: 235-266 (including cross border individuals) Norway: 32-34 TOTAL: 237-300 Trend 2006-2011 Increase Karelian Finland: 205-215 Finland: 150-160 Decrease Baltic Estonia: 110 Latvia: ~300 Lithuania: 355 Poland: 200 ~1000 Central EU Lowlands Germany: 6 Poland: 13 TOTAL: 19 Carpathian Slovakia: 400-600 Romania: 2500 Poland: 290 Czech Republic: ~10 Hungary: 10-25 Dinaric- Balkan Slovenia: 70-100 Croatia: 150-210 Bosnia: 600 Bulgaria: 2,000-3,000 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia : 600-800 Serbia: 750-1000 Greece: 650 Albania: 900-1200 TOTAL: 5000 Estonia: 230±30 Latvia: 300±100 Lithuania: 300±100 Poland: 267-359 ~870-1400 Germany: 14 packs Poland: 17 packs TOTAL: ~170 Slovakia: 1,823 (but likely inaccurate) Romania: 2300-2700 Poland: 209-254 Czech Republic: 2-4 Slovenia: 43 (CI 39-50) Croatia: 168-219 Bosnia: 650 Bulgaria: 1,000 (but official estimate is 2,026) The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia : 267 Serbia: 800±50 Greece: no updated data Albania: 200-250 (likely overestimate) TOTAL: 3000-3500 Stable to increasing Increase Likely stable, but trend assessment hindered by methodological problems Likely stable, but trend assessment hindered by methodological problems
Wolf number/trend in Europe 2012 POPULATION Last size estimate 2005 Italian Peninsula TOTAL: 500-800 Alpine France: 61-130 Italy: no info Swiss: 3 TOTAL: ~100-120 NW Iberian Spain: ~2000 Portugal: ~220-435 TOTAL: ~2200-2500 Most recent estimate (2010, 2011 or 2012) TOTAL: 600-800 France: 200+ Italy: 70 Swiss: 8 TOTAL: 32 packs (>250) No recent estimates of total population size. Only for some regions: Basque Country, Catalona, Castilla-La-Mancha, Madrid. TOTAL: no recent update Sierra Morena TOTAL: 63-77 1 pack detected in 2010, none in 2011 (by wolf howling) TOTAL: no pack Trend 2006-2011 Stable Increase Possible decrease, but trend assessment hindered by lack of updated population estimates. Spain: recent estimates only from small part of range Portugal: decrease of breeding packs from recent surveys conducted in specific areas (Trásos-Montes area, South Douro river area) Decrease or population already extinct
Wolf densities in Croatia (2004) N + = + + = - - = Wolf population density ( N / 100 k m 2 ) 0. 5-0. 75 0. 75-1 1-1. 25 1. 25-1. 5 1. 5-1. 75 1. 75-2 2-2. 5 Croatia Land Sea Island + W E S 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 K i l o m e t e r s
Wolves killed in Croatia 1945-2003 30 27 No. of dead individuals *Round average - width 5 No - of de ad wo lve s 25 20 15 10 5 0 4 6 18 23 20 20 18 16 13 9 9 3 7 17 9 9 10 21 21 19 25 13 13 9 5 18 15 7 22 4 21 11 5 6 11 8 18 17 6 3 6 0 1 0 1 3 3 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 Year 6 7 3 12 7 15 15 9 4 6 10
Wolves in France 2010
Wolves in France 2010
Wolf packs in the Italian Western Alps 2006-2007 2010-2011
Wolf numbers in the Italian Western Alps (1999-2009) N branchi # packs Branchi IT-FR Branchi Torino Branchi Cuneo # wolves 60 N Lupi solitari Regione 50 N Lupi VG N Lupi Orsiera N Lupi VC N Lupi 40 30 20 N Lupi Bardonecchia N Lupi Gran Bosco N Lupi V.Gesso N Lupi V.Varaita N Lupi Val Maira N Lupi Val Grana N Lupi Bassa V.Tanaro 10 N Lupi Alta V.Tanaro N Lupi V.Casotto N Lupi V.Stura Bassa 0 1999-2000 2000-2001- 2002-2003- 2004-2005- 2006-2007- 2008-2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1999-2000- 2001-2002- 2003-2004- 2005-2006- 2007-2008- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 N Lupi V.Stura Alta N Lupi V.Pesio Inizio Inverno Fine Inverno
Habitat suitability for wolves in the Alps
Wolf in Germany Turin 24. May 2010 2000: 1 pack 2009: 7 packs, 3 pairs, 5 singles confirmed wolf presence (single wolves / pairs) area with confirmed reproduction
Wolf litters in Finland 1996-2004 Dispersal
The obsession of numbers Quality of numbers depends on methods and context Numbers are of limited use without an estimate of error Numbers are useless to estimate impact on prey To get reliable numbers costs a fortune so why bother counting animals?? Numbers are good only to set quotas (but only if you have also many other demographic parameters!!!)
The obsession of numbers: a critical difference Population size Populations trend census methods index of abundance
Wolf trends in Europe
Conservation status and legal means 2008 Red List of IUCN (vulnerable) CITES App. II (potentially endangered) 1979 Bern Convention (strictly protected)* 1992 EU Habitat Directive (fully protected)* National laws (* exceptions in Spain, Greece, Finland, )
Wolf recovery depends on a combination of factors Which are the factors involved? the wolf itself (biological adaptability, resilience), change in landuse patterns increase of wild prey conservation efforts
Dispersal of M15 March 2004 February 2005 317 days 1.243 km
Wolf dispersal in the Italian Alps 1999-2010
A flexible and variable diet
Can wolf recovery in Europe be considered a management success? Increases in range and numbers of wolves already occurred in recent history (postwar periods) but were followed by intensive eradication efforts
Can wolf recovery in Europe be considered a management success? Problem #1: fragmentation of management policies Enforcement of the Bern Convention relies on the contracting parties; individual countries may make reservations to the Convention Wolf management at national/sub-national level great diversity of management philosophy and action: full/partial protection, game species, zoning, problem wolf removal, etc.
Transboundary cooperation in the Alps Wolf and Lynx Wolf Alpine Group (WAG) and SCALP
Not all borders are international the case of federal states! e.g. wolf range in Spain
Can wolf recovery in Europe be considered a management success? Problem #2: law enforcement Law is poorly enforced in almost all countries where the wolf is fully protected and poaching is common Laissez-faire management in some countries (Mediterranean); illegal killing replaces active management: benign neglect management system, is it a solution?
Can wolf recovery in Europe be considered a management success? Problem #3: Wolf-livestock interactions persisting (increasing) wolf-livestock conflicts controversial (negative) attitudes ways to deal with the problem are different: - compensation programs - livestock supporting systems (i.e., subsidies) - kind and distribution of livestock differ throughout Europe - ecological and socio-economic conditions are different
LC-livestock conflicts
Attacks in France 1993-2010 1250 Number of attacks to flocks (wolves - France) 1000 750 500 250 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Wolf impact on livestock in Europe (annual estimate, 2012) Bear Lynx Wolf - 2.5-3 mil. - 3500 heads + 1400 reindeer - 5 mil + 3.5 mil incentives - 7-10000 heads + 7-8000 reindeer - 8 mil - 20000 heads 1/2 in Norway ¾ in Norway + prevention costs (e.g. 7 mil in France)
Livestock predation can be a very serious problem to marginal economies
Traditional conflict prevention methods
Prevention of predation: electric fences
Livestock predation management: 4 basic types of action 1) Prevention of predation 2) Mitigation of damages 3) Control (of predators) 4) Research on all + Monitoring and evaluation, of course
Livestock depredation and compensation programs in Italy originally meant to alleviate social conflict not to reduce depredations! currently not effective in reducing the conflict, nor in preventing illegal wolf control In general: Compensation programs (CP): - no comprehensive strategy to reduce the conflict - no incentives to adopt preventive measures - no conditions for reimbursement - complexity of reimbursement procedure
There is no single recipe to manage the wolf-human interface Every local situation has a different management solutions (often more than one) Attempts of applying management solutions developed elsewhere are often bound to failure
Can wolf recovery in Europe be considered a management success? Problem #4: Wolf-human relationship hunting and poaching tolerance and prejudices positions highly polarized coexistence often has an impact on: habitat quality and food availability small numbers, low densities and demographic fluctuations fragmentation and shape of the range
Can wolf recovery in Europe be considered a management success? Problem #5: Large scale (and un-fragmented) factors affecting wolf management Positive: EU policies on Species protection Protected areas Negative: EU policies on human health: milk and meat processing agriculture: set-aside, rural landscape livestock: economic subsidies to heads and market support
Livestock is largely subsidized
Free-ranging dogs and hybridization
Can wolf recovery in Europe be considered a management success? Broad conclusions: It is hardly a success. It is rather a lucky coincidence of biological and historical factors All major conservation issues are not satisfactorily solved (often not even approached) The current positive trend can easily be reversed
The way forward Any chance of success? Little, if implementation is not guided by management plans Some, if implementation is at least by wolf population (Guidelines for population level management plans, LCIE 2007)
European Union Habitats Directive Bern Convention Council of Europe Despite the existence of two pan European bodies management scales for both conservation planning and assessment have remained at national (or sub-national) scales.
Management scale We need to work towards a large scale and more biological approach to management. Requires coordinating the management of all administrative units that biological populations stretch across. This is what we call the population approach and it always requires some form of transboundary cooperation Intra-national borders between provinces, counties, states, protected areas and non-protected areas.. Inter-national borders between countries and between international bodies (e.g. EU and non EU neighbours).
Main wolf populations in Europe 2012 Scandinavian Karelian Central European Lowlands Carpathian NW Iberian Alpine Sierra Morena Italian Peninsula Dinaric Balkan
Guidelines for Population Level Management Plans for Large Carnivores in Europe Large Carnivore Initiative for Europe (John D. C. Linnell, Luigi Boitani, Valeria Salvatori, Manuela von Arx)
WOLF transboundary population management Scandinavian Karelian Baltic A No cooperation at all or very small cooperation Central European Lowlands Carpathian B Some occasional technical cooperation NW Iberian Alpine Dinaric Balkan C Regular technical and/or some management cooperation D Joint management plan for the transboundary population Sierra Morena Italian Peninsula
What future for wolves in Europe? Not just how many wolves, BUT, also What level of wolf-human conflict can Europe tolerate? Where?
Wolf-livestock conflicts An Economic carrying capacity defined by the cost of wolf-livestock conflicts replace natural ecological carrying capacity for wolves in many (eco)-systems with human presence. This may imply limiting the potential ecological role of wolves!!!
LCIE mission: To maintain and restore, in coexistence with people, viable populations of large carnivores as an integral part of the ecosystems and landscapes across Europe (www.lcie.org)
Population level management (More) large carnivores in wider ranges Good science to inform political decisions Management of biological populations Hunting and lethal control can be acceptable to maintain coexistence Conservation with people s support Freedom within frames
A renewed strategy of tolerance
Resources and documents Status, management and distribution of large carnivores bear, lynx, wolf & wolverine in Europe. Kazcensky et al. (Eds) 2013. Large carnivore conservation and management in Europe: the contribution of EC co-funded LIFE projects. V. Salvatori 2013. Towards a population level approach for the management of large carnivores in Europe. Challenges and opportunities. JC Blanco (Ed) 2013. From conflict to coexistence? Insights from multi-disciplinary research into the relationships between people, large carnivores and institutions. JC Linnell 2013. Https://circabc.europa.eu/faces/jsp/extension/wai/navigation/container.jsp www.lcie.org