LAMB CROP BEEFLAMB ( ) BY FARMERS. FOR FARMERS. Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service P17028 November 2017

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1 0800 BEEF ( ) BY FARMERS. FOR FARMERS Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service P17028 November

2 Contents Compare Your Lambing Percentage Online 2 Lambing Calculator 2 Executive Summary 3 Overview 4 Seasonal Conditions 4 Lamb Growth Rates 4 Early Drafting Pattern 4 Early Schedule Comment 4 Region Reports 6 Ewes to Ram 6 Ewe Lambing Percentage 6 Hoggets to Ram 7 Lambs from Hoggets 7 Total Number of Lambs 7 Lambing Date and Spread of Lambing 8 Lambing Weather 8 Lamb Survival 8 Feed Situation 9 Lamb Growth Rates 9 Early Drafting Pattern 10 Number and Weights in First Quarter Oct Dec 10 Early Schedule Comment 10 General Comment 11 Lamb Processing First Quarter Oct Dec 12 Full Season Outlook 12 Ewe Lambing Dates by Region 13 Region Contacts: Economic Service Managers 14 Beef + Lamb New Zealand Limited also referred to as B+LNZ, B+LNZ Economic Service and the Economic Service. All rights reserved. This work is covered by copyright and may not be stored, reproduced or copied without the prior written permission of Beef + Lamb New Zealand Limited. Beef + Lamb New Zealand Limited, its employees and Directors shall not be liable for any loss or damage sustained by any person relying on the forecasts contained in this document, whatever the cause of such loss or damage. Beef + Lamb New Zealand PO Box 121, Wellington 6140, New Zealand Phone: Fax: econ@beeflambnz.com Contact: Rob Davison: Executive Director Andrew Burtt: Chief Economist Rob Gibson: Senior Agricultural Analyst Ben Hancock: Senior Agricultural Analyst 1

3 Compare Your Lambing Percentage Online Data collection and benchmarking are key drivers of improved farm profitability. You can see how your business matches up at the click of a mouse. Lambing Calculator The lambing percentage calculator was the first of our interactive tools designed to put your farm s performance in context. Use it for a clear understanding of where your farm stands among a broader group, region or farm type. Once you know where you are, you ll be better placed to know where you re going so, if you need to, you can take appropriate action to change your course. Visit beeflambnz.com/data-tools/lambingcalculator to calculate your lambing percentage compared with the All Classes average and with farms in your region or farm type. 2

4 Executive Summary Lamb Crop +1.9% The number of lambs tailed in spring was up 1.9 per cent (436,000 head) on the previous spring to 23.7 million head. This season s lamb crop was influenced by a record ewe lambing percentage and more lambs from hoggets, which offset a decline in breeding ewe numbers. North Island +4.9% North Island lamb numbers increased 4.9 per cent (551,000 head) to 11.7 million head. This was due to good weather and breeding ewe condition at both mating and lambing, and an increased number of lambs from hoggets. South Island -1.0% South Island lamb numbers decreased 1.0 per cent (115,000 head) to 12.0 million head. The decrease was underpinned by Southland where fewer ewes were mated, the lambing percentage was slightly lower and there were fewer lambs from hoggets. Ewes to Ram -1.9% The number of breeding ewes at 1 July decreased 1.9 per cent on 2016 to 17.8 million. Decreases occurred across all regions except Marlborough-Canterbury but the most significant decrease was in Taranaki-Manawatu (-3.6%) in response to strong mutton prices and culling of old ewes to take advantage of those prices. Lambing Percentage 127.2% The ewe lambing percentage for spring was per cent, up 4.4 percentage points on This increase was underpinned by the North Island due to good climatic conditions and ewe condition at mating and lambing for most regions. This season was a record lambing percentage, up 1.8 percentage points on spring 2014, which at per cent was previously the highest recorded lambing percentage. North Island 128.0% The North Island ewe lambing percentage at per cent was up 8.6 percentage points from per cent last spring. This is a record lambing percentage due to good climatic conditions and ewe condition at mating and lambing for most regions. South Island 126.4% The South Island ewe lambing percentage at per cent was up 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous spring. An overall lift in lambing percentage for most regions except Southland contributed towards this increase. Lambs from Hoggets +7.0% The number of lambs from hoggets totalled 1.07 million, up 7.0 per cent on The number of lambs from hoggets increased in all regions except Southland and was largest in North Island regions. Export Lamb Slaughter +0.1% The -18 export lamb slaughter is estimated to remain similar to at million head. This is due to more replacement lambs being kept to maintain flock numbers. How We Collect the Data This paper summarises the results from a field survey carried out to estimate the lamb crop for spring. The Survey covers over 500 commercial sheep and beef farms, which are a statistically representative sample of the commercial sheep and beef farms in New Zealand. Beef + Lamb New Zealand s Economic Service Managers based throughout New Zealand collect farm information at various points during the year. The Lamb Crop Survey is used to measure breeding ewe performance (lambing percentage), lambs born, lamb survival, early drafting and supply expectations for the season. 3

5 Overview Seasonal Conditions Lambing Weather Lambing weather was wet but with no adverse weather events for North Island regions. In the South Island, lambing conditions were mostly favourable with the exception of a snow event in the high country during November. Lamb Growth Rates Mixed North Island regions had lower than normal lamb growth rates due to lack of sunshine, more lambs, and cool damp weather. South Island regions had slow growth rates in northern parts, but were doing well in southern South Island regions overall. Early Drafting Pattern Similar or later North Island regions were expected to draft later due to the effect of lower growth rates. South Island drafting dates overall are expected to be similar to last year. Early Schedule Comment Strong market demand for lamb was reflected in schedule prices, which were also influenced by a lack of lambs available for processing. The limited supply of lambs was due to low lamb growth rates and farmers holding lambs until they reach acceptable weights for processing. 4

6 Table 1 Estimate of -18 Lamb Crop Unit Note Northland- Waikato-BoP East Coast Taranaki- Manawatu North Island Marlborough- Canterbury Otago Southland South Island NEW ZEALAND Ewes to Ram (000) 1 2,486 4,527 2,281 9,295 3,600 3,156 3,024 9,780 19, Ewes to Ram (000) 2 2,440 4,394 2,089 8,923 3,465 3,004 2,745 9,215 18,137-18e Ewes to Ram (000) 3 2,370 4,305 2,014 8,689 3,475 2,977 2,657 9,109 17, Lambs from Ewes (000) 1 3,136 5,692 2,690 11,519 4,369 3,873 3,849 12,090 23, Lambs from Ewes (000) 2 3,074 5,092 2,490 10,657 4,124 3,692 3,799 11,615 22,272-18e Lambs from Ewes (000) 3 3,131 5,442 2,552 11,125 4,153 3,718 3,642 11,513 22, Ewe Lambing % (%) % 125.7% 117.9% 123.9% 121.3% 122.7% 127.3% 123.6% 123.8% Ewe Lambing % (%) % 115.9% 119.2% 119.4% 119.0% 122.9% 138.4% 126.1% 122.8% -18e Ewe Lambing % (%) % 126.4% 126.7% 128.0% 119.5% 124.9% 137.1% 126.4% 127.2% Lambs from Hoggets (000) Lambs from Hoggets (000) e Lambs from Hoggets (000) , Total Lambs Tailed (000) 1 3,286 5,967 2,825 12,080 4,550 3,953 3,988 12,490 24, Total Lambs Tailed (000) 2 3,240 5,352 2,592 11,185 4,304 3,812 3,969 12,085 23,270-18e Total Lambs Tailed (000) 3 3,308 5,753 2,675 11,736 4,333 3,840 3,797 11,970 23,706 Notes 1 Statistics New Zealand ewe numbers and lamb numbers 2 Statistics New Zealand ewe numbers, Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service Lamb Crop Survey 3 Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service Livestock Numbers Survey, Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service Lamb Crop Survey e Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service Estimate 5

7 Region Reports Ewes to Ram Decreased 2.9 per cent compared with 2016 to 2.37 million. This continues the downward trend as farmers move away from sheep and continue to look towards other land use options. The exception to this was farmers on hard hill country where breeding ewe numbers increased. Decreased 2.0 per cent compared with 2016 to 4.31 million. Most of this decrease occurred on finishing farms, while hard hill and hill country farms generally maintained their numbers at similar levels to Decreased 3.6 per cent compared with 2016 to 2.01 million. Procurement pressure, borne from tight supply, caused sheep and lamb prices to soar from April to June. This resulted in a larger than normal number of old ewes being sent for processing. Lamb losses between pregnancy scanning and lambing occurred due to residual effects of facial eczema and high worm burdens. Facial eczema effects were due to a carryover of sub-clinical effects from the previous season s outbreak. Increased 0.3 per cent compared with 2016 to 3.48 million. North Canterbury and Marlborough farms were the main contributors to the lift, rebuilding ewe flocks as weather and feed supplies improved after prolonged drought conditions in preceding years. In Otago, numbers decreased 0.9 per cent compared with 2016 to 2.98 million. Although ewe numbers declined slightly, more ewe hoggets were retained, which points to a stabilising ewe flock. In Southland, numbers decreased 3.2 per cent compared with 2016 to 2.66 million. Ewe numbers have continued to decline in Southland as farmers diversify their farming businesses, particularly towards beef finishing as prices for beef have remained firm. Ewe Lambing Percentage Increased 6.1 percentage points compared with 2016 to per cent. Despite fewer ewes, a higher ewe lambing percentage resulted in an increase of around 68,000 lambs compared with Scanning results showed an improvement on the previous season, which has flowed through to the final lamb crop. Increased 11 percentage points compared with 2016 to per cent. This was the result of good weather conditions during autumn for mating, and benign weather at lambing. This is in contrast to 2016 when there was an extensive facial eczema outbreak. Increased 7.5 percentage points on 2016 to per cent. This was driven by farms in Wanganui, Rangitikei and Manawatu. A large contributor to this was ewe body condition at mating, which was excellent. The number of non-pregnant ewes was similar to Increased 0.5 percentage points compared with 2016 to per cent. Hill country farms were up 4.0 percentage points due to improved ewe condition at mating compared with previous dry years, especially in the north. Good autumn feed on breeding-finishing farms was offset by ewes losing body condition during the wet winter, and increased ewe losses at lambing. The number of non-pregnant ewes was lower than usual in the north, but normal or higher in the south of the region. Otago increased 2.0 percentage points to per cent, while Southland decreased 1.3 percentage points to per cent. Overall, pregnancy scanning results were variable with some farmers reporting significantly lower scanning percentages, while others had very good results compared with In Otago, non-pregnant ewe numbers were down. In Southland, farmer feedback indicated a similar number of non-pregnant ewes to the previous year. Very high pasture growth rates last season negatively impacted on feed quality. This may have also contributed to higher levels of Zeralenone a naturally occurring fungal toxin that preferentially grows on dead litter at the base of pasture in swards at mating, negatively impacting on ewe fertility. Kind weather conditions for most farms during lambing contributed to very good lamb survival. A short period of adverse weather ( a wet weekend ) at the start of lambing in September was mentioned by many farmers. This contributed to the slightly lower lambing percentage, which was more noticeable along Southland s south coast. A short-lived cold front brought snow to much of central and northern Southland, West Otago and parts of the region at higher altitudes in early November. Lambing was finished for most except extensive high country properties where the conditions probably led to some lamb losses over that period. The snow melted quickly and the moisture it brought was welcomed by most. 6

8 Hoggets to Ram Increased on The trend towards mating hoggets continues, with a lift in ewe hoggets mated compared with the previous year. Intensive finishing farms led this increase with 17 per cent more hoggets mated. These farms were heavily affected by the previous autumn s facial eczema outbreak. Increased on Farmers made the most of good growing conditions in autumn, taking the opportunity to mate hoggets that had grown well. This led to an increase in the number of hoggets mated up 11 per cent. A similar proportion of ewe hoggets were put to the ram this season, compared to These were in excellent condition for mating. A similar proportion to Many farms carried additional hoggets into winter but most were destined for processing. Increased hogget mating in northern districts was driven by good feed supplies and stock condition in autumn, plus the desire to maximise income by mating all available animals. The proportion of hoggets mated in both Otago and Southland increased on the previous season as hoggets reached acceptable weights for mating. Lambs from Hoggets Increased 6.6 per cent compared with 2016 to 177,000 head. This represents 5.4 per cent of total lambs born in this region. A good season for pasture growth and well-grown hoggets enabled this year s mating to be an improvement on Increased 20 per cent compared to 2016 to 311,000 head. This was due to good pasture growth and ewe hogget condition at mating, and good lambing conditions for spring. Increased 21 per cent compared with 2016 to 4.6 per cent of total lambs, or 123,000 lambs. Similar to the previous year, estimated at approximately 180,000 lambs, or 4.2 per cent of total lambs. In Otago, a similar number of lambs were born to hoggets as in the previous season. In Southland, although the number of hoggets mated increased, fewer lambs were tailed from hoggets because of a narrow window for mating. This meant rams running with ewe hoggets for one cycle or less leading to fewer hoggets getting in lamb compared with the previous year. Overall, lambs from hoggets as a percentage of lambs from ewes remained similar to the previous season. Total Number of Lambs Increased 2.1 per cent compared with 2016 to 3.31 million head. The higher lambing percentage and increase in the number of hoggets mated offset fewer breeding ewes, leading to a lift in the total number of lambs. Increased 7.5 per cent compared with 2016 to 5.75 million head. This was due to a lift in the number of ewes with multiple lambs, a larger number of hoggets mated and good weather conditions. The impact of these factors offset the negative impact of fewer breeding ewes mated. Increased 3.2 per cent compared with 2016 to 2.68 million head. Breeding ewes bearing twin lambs was reported by farmers in all farm classes and districts reported the number of breeding ewes bearing twins was higher than average. Increased slightly (+0.7%) compared with 2016 to 4.33 million head. In north Canterbury and Marlborough ewe numbers increased, as did the number of those bearing twin lambs. However, reduced lamb survival in those same regions and higher ewe deaths moderated the net effect on total lamb numbers. Otago increased slightly (+0.7%) to 3.84 million, while Southland decreased 4.3 per cent to 3.80 million. In Otago, the number of ewes to ram declined, however better lamb survival and an increase in ewe lambing percentage led to an increase in total lambs. In Southland, the combined effect of fewer ewes mated, a lower ewe lambing percentage and fewer lambs from hoggets led to a decrease in the number of lambs. Otago and Southland each represent 16 per cent of the national lamb crop. 7

9 Lambing Date and Spread of Lambing Lambing dates were the same to slightly earlier than normal, while the spread of lambing was normal. Lambing dates remain unchanged on the previous year, as was the spread of lambing. Spread of lambing was the same as 2016 in all areas except Taranaki where it was more spread. Spread of lambing was near normal but varied widely with many farmers noting abnormal lambing patterns. The number reporting an unusually drawn out lambing was balanced by a similar number with remarkably condensed lambing. Lambing dates were slightly earlier and the spread of lambing was similar to last season in Otago and Southland. Lambing Weather Consistently wet with very few days of sunshine. These conditions created caution amongst farmers in terms of how lambing in general would play out. Some farms whose lambing occurred during wet, cold weather were negatively affected, however these were rather localised. Other farmers in the region noted that they had seen a noticeable increase in bearings (vaginal prolapse) amongst their ewes. The weather was a hindrance to complete tailing in its usual timeframe. No major storms or adverse weather events. Southern parts of Tararua district and locations close to the main ranges suffered from continually wet conditions, which suppressed lamb survivability. A long period of dreary, cool, wet weather over lambing caused concern for all but surprisingly did not contribute significantly to lamb losses. Wet winter weather was a common feature with some districts receiving two to three times normal rainfall from June to August. Soils were saturated and early-lambing farms faced water runoff or ponding with each rain. Conditions improved as soil moisture decreased through the main lambing period from August to October. Short, sharp storm events caused lamb losses for northern farmers lambing at the time, while farms with different lambing dates were unaffected. Weather was more favourable in the south although farms were slow to dry out after winter rain. High country farms received a short-lived cold blast with snow in early November but events of this nature were expected by these farmers. Temperatures were normal or slightly warmer over most of the region as lambing began but cool cloudy days were common in the north from mid-spring. Overall pasture growth was above average. Prevailing weather conditions were favourable for most farmers throughout lambing. There were two exceptions: a cold, wet weekend near the start of lambing in Southland and West Otago, which had the greatest impact along the south coast; and a snow event in the high country in early November. Lamb Survival Mixed farmer reports across the region. Farmers in western parts of the King Country reported survival was lower than normal. This area in particular was negatively affected by some significant rainfall events in late September. In Northland, some farmers reported survival as being better than normal. The balance of the northern North Island reported survival as normal. Better than normal for most of the region, with benign weather for most of the lambing period, which provided good lamb survivability. In southern parts of the Tararua district and further south, lamb survival was more normal. Survival was better than average for all farms and districts. The exception to this was Taranaki. Below average in north Canterbury and Marlborough, but good in high country farms. Ewe deaths reduced lamb survival from pregnancy scanning as lambs were lost in utero. Ewe losses were highest in areas with heavy soils and harsh conditions for ewes grazing winter crops, causing weight loss and increased metabolic problems such as milk fever (hypocalcaemia) and sleepy sickness (ketosis). Farmers reported higher than normal rates of bearings across much of the region. In north Canterbury and Marlborough, spring storms increased lamb losses. Further south, lambing weather was more settled and most farmers reported good lamb survival, although some Canterbury farms on heavy soils suffered losses when lambing occurred on sodden conditions. 8

10 High country farms whom lamb later than other farm classes reported fewer than normal storm events and good lamb survival, although outcomes were yet to be confirmed as tailing was only beginning on most of these farms. Lamb survival was better than last year in Otago and Southland. Ewe deaths were slightly higher than last year in Otago, with bearings often mentioned; and slightly lower than last year in Southland, perhaps as a result of fewer ewes scanned with triplets. Feed Situation Drying out in the far-north, but supplementary feed being made further south. At the start of November farmer optimism was boosted when the grass started growing, and sunshine and warm days prevailed. Some farmers particularly in the far-north reported strong winds during October which caused the area to start drying out, and noted that some rain would be helpful for grass growth. Further south, supplementary feed was being made, and farmers were trying to maintain feed quality. Feed levels were adequate to tight overall. In southern parts, feed was normal to below normal. Western and southern parts (Tararua district and further south) have had a large amount of rain spread over a long period of time. This delayed pasture growth due to low sunlight hours and cooler conditions. Areas closer to the coast and north of Tararua have had good growing conditions and feed levels were better than normal. Feed quality in general was declining, with a lack of recent rainfall limiting pasture growth in most areas. Intensive finishing farms were reporting a better than normal feed situation while others have a more normal feed situation. Cool winds with sun-soaked days in early November combined to dry and harden soils very quickly. Moisture with heat is needed to get pasture growth moving. Above average to excellent feed supplies were reported by farmers throughout the region, with many commenting that they had not seen a better spring. Stock numbers were insufficient to consume the excess feed, so feed conservation began before November in eastern districts. Feed quality and soil moisture were declining by mid-november and these effects were expected to reduce lamb live-weight gains later in spring if they continue, especially on nonirrigated farms. In Otago, feed supply was reported by farmers to be good across much of the region except in Central Otago and Upper Clutha where dry conditions have led to feed levels well back on an exceptional spring last year. In Southland, feed supply was very good with many farmers mentioning that quality is better this season compared with the excessive growth experienced last spring. Rain (or snow) in early November was very timely as soils were beginning to dry out across most of the region before that. Further rainfall events will be required to keep pasture and lambs growing well. Farmers in many parts of the southern South Island continue to consider their options should the season remain drier than desirable. Lamb Growth Rates Similar, or below average. A lack of sunshine from the start of lambing to the end of October has led to growth rates being behind. It is expected however that with sunshine, these lambs will quickly pick up. Constrained in southern areas, due to a higher population density of lambs and a lack of sunshine and heat. In northern areas, it has been better than normal. Low sunlight and cool, damp weather negatively affected lamb growth rates from September to November. In all districts, farmers reported growth rates as being well below normal with tight feed supply. Lamb performance showed a pronounced difference between north and south. In the north, lambs were slow growing in cool, overcast weather, except for Waiau district where lambs had done well. Lamb growth was better further south where conditions were warmer and sunnier, with above normal liveweight gains observed by farmers in most districts south of the Rakaia river. Farmers reported that lambs were doing well across the southern South Island. Weather conditions after lambing were generally warm and sunny, with sufficient moisture for most, except inland areas. Pasture quality was good and lambs were thriving. No animal health issues were reported. 9

11 Early Drafting Pattern Lower in number and carcase weights compared with Farmers intend to stick to their normal drafting pattern. Lower in number compared with This is due to finishing farms having better than average feed conditions, a lift in smaller lambs from ewes bearing multiple lambs, and good in-market price signals from offshore. Good early season store prices also encouraged farmers to sell into that market and there was an increase in ewes sold with lambs at foot due to farmers matching the lift in feed demand with pasture growth rates. Later drafts at lighter weights were recorded due to poor pasture growth and lamb growth rates. The number of lambs available for sale from hill country through Feilding sale yards was behind Most lambs processed early were carried over from the previous season s lamb crop. Merino and Merino-cross lambs (from the previous season) remained popular for finishing due to good returns for fine hogget wool and later maturity, which reduced the risk of adult teeth erupting and the subsequent price downgrade from lamb to hogget. Some farmers were aiming to draft a little earlier than last year from early lambing mobs, but overall, drafting dates are likely to be about the same as last season. Number and Weights in First Quarter Oct Dec Numbers were expected to lift due to a strong schedule and acceptable weights being reached for processing. Early reports from buyers and processors were that finding new season lambs ready for processing was tough due to poor growth rates. However, they expect that by the start of December a lot of lambs will reach desired weights and, with a strong schedule, that farmers would take the opportunity to sell lambs in the first quarter. Down in number on the previous season. Positive price signals and good levels of feed on finishing properties were expected to underpin the store market and encourage farmers to hold lambs to heavier weights. The increased proportion of ewes bearing multiple lambs is expected to cause a decline in the number coming forward for early processing. Carcase weights are expected to drop in the first quarter due to poor growth rates. A similar number (900,000) of lambs is estimated to be processed, Near normal numbers and carcase weights in the south. In northern districts, poorer lamb growth rates was likely to delay drafts or reduce numbers and weights. Early sales could increase sharply if farms dry out quickly. Likely that numbers in early drafts will be higher than last season due to good lamb growth rates and good schedule prices. If weather conditions remain dry, this will be an added incentive to get lambs away earlier. A significant portion of the lambs processed in the first quarter is last season s lambs carried over to this meat production season, to be processed before the eruption of teeth and subsequently being downgraded to hogget. Early Schedule Comment New season lamb schedules were strong compared with the same time last year. Some processors were offering up to $7.50/kg CW, up $2.10/kg CW on the same time last year. Once lambs start flowing through to processors from the start of December, it is expected that prices will drop. The reason for this is more lambs on the ground with farmers wanting to take the good money that is on offer, and processors wanting to balance the books for their Christmas trade contracts. Good early lamb prices of over $7.00/kg CW encouraged farmers whom lambed early to hold lambs until they reach heavier weights, or to sell to finishing farms. Meat companies were reporting a lack of lambs available for processing and buoyant markets had driven up the schedule from $7.00 to $7.30/kg CW. Schedule prices remained around $7.00/kg CW due to plentiful feed and short lamb supply. Farmers were encouraged by minimum price contracts guaranteeing at least $5.90/kg CW until Christmas. Mutton schedule prices hit record levels due to strong international markets and demand for ewes to keep processing plants busy until lamb flow increased. Schedules were strong this spring and reached $7.00/kg CW or more in the south with processors competing for supply amidst strong offshore demand for product. Major companies have signalled schedules will ease in the lead-up to Christmas, but farmers are hopeful that prices will continue to exceed those received last season. Schedule prices for mutton have been very strong, and there have been a few comments that some mobs of old ewes could be weaned early to take advantage of these strong prices. 10

12 General Comment A kind autumn without the same facial eczema issues as the previous year led to ewes being in excellent body condition for mating. However, consistent rain across the region never eased during winter and spring. When it came time for lamb tailing, farmers were craving sunshine to help kick-start pasture growth and subsequent lamb growth rates but adequate sunshine did not arrive until the end of October. Schedules for lambs created positive morale amongst farmers. A few farmers have taken the opportunity to heavily cull ewes with the mutton schedule on offer at around $5.00/kg CW. Wool returns continue to disappoint farmers in the region and this has put a dampener on farmers otherwise positive outlook on the sheep industry. Healthy Rivers/Wai Ora Waikato Regional Council s Proposed Waikato Regional Plan Change 1 continues to be at the forefront of sheep and beef farmers minds, with hearings once again postponed till June Farmers are continuing to farm as business as usual even though the rules of Plan Change 1 are supposedly in force. Exceptionally good weather conditions for mating in autumn and good ewe condition going into lambing contributed to an exceptional, lambing percentage for spring. Weather for most was good for lambing, although wetter than normal is in some areas, with no storms to negatively impact on lamb survival. The potential for lambing to be even better was hindered by three things. First, there was a larger proportion of bearings this spring compared with 2016, which was attributed mainly to high feed intakes in the first trimester of pregnancy for the ewes carrying multiples. Farmers that were able to control feed intakes at this time did not have a problem. Second, two-tooth ewes appear to be the poor performing age group on many farms, which may be a result of facial eczema exposure as lambs in autumn Finally, farmers that run a terminal sire flock, purchasing one-year-old ewes, or cull-for-age ewes, have reported a larger than typical ewe death rate during lambing. The cause of these deaths is largely unknown, although again the lag effect of facial eczema is suspected. A prolonged wet winter and inclement spring weather. Most districts recorded an increased prevalence of bearings leading to ewe deaths. With the exception of poor wool returns, most farmers are comfortable with current sheep and cattle returns. Outstanding spring feed supplies in many areas, however farmer satisfaction with farm performance showed a difference between north and south. In north Canterbury and Marlborough, good ewe condition going into winter was compromised by poorer lamb survival in spring storms and continuing cool weather which reduced lamb numbers and pasture growth rates. Ewe losses were high on many farms, negating the lift in lamb numbers. Lamb losses from spring storms made for patchy results in northern parts where some farms had markedly reduced lambing percentages while those that lambed earlier or later achieved better results. Overall, farmers reported an optimistic outlook thanks to good spring pasture growth and strong prices but concern about a dry summer was mounting as some districts have not received significant rainfall since August or September. Continued dry weather could increase lamb flow for processing or movement of trading lambs to other regions through late spring and early summer. Calving results have been good this season because of favourable weather conditions. There have been several reports of more twins this season. There has been a strong upswing in the number of properties advertised for sale this spring, (both sheep and beef, and dairy) but real estate agents report that this has not been matched by buying interest to date. This may indicate some caution by buyers waiting to see the implications of policy changes by the new government; as well as the potential impact of Environment Southland s Water and Land Plan, which has progressed passed the submissions and hearings stages. Farmers are generally optimistic about prospects for good financial returns this season despite low prices for strong wool. Favourable climatic conditions through spring has meant that farming operations for this time of year are all on target. 11

13 Lamb Processing -18 First Quarter Oct Dec Table 2 Export Lamb Processing Head (000) e = estimate Source: Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service Overall, the number of lambs processed during the first three months of the -18 season is expected to total 4.42 million head, up 2.0 per cent on It is estimated that 23 per cent of -18 s total export lamb processing will occur in the first quarter, which is up on last season. Export Lambs Processed October - December % of Total e e Northland-Waikato-BoP % 24.9% 24.4% % 25.9% 24.8% Taranaki-Manawatu 1, % 22.6% 22.9% North Island 2,626 2,254 2, % 24.3% 23.9% Marlborough-Canterbury 1,524 1,347 1, % 24.7% 25.3% Otago-Southland % 16.3% 18.1% South Island 2,331 2,082 2, % 20.9% 22.1% New Zealand 4,956 4,337 4, % 22.5% 23.0% North Island processing in the first quarter is estimated to be down 2.2 per cent on last season to 2.20 million head. South Island processing in the first quarter is estimated to be up 6.6 per cent on last year to 2.22 million head. The key driver of the increased first quarter processing is a larger lamb crop from record lambing percentage, which offsets fewer breeding ewes compared with Full Season Outlook Export slaughter +0.1% Export lamb slaughter is estimated to increase slightly from million head to million for -18. This is underpinned by a record lambing percentage from fewer breeding ewes, which leads to an overall increase in the number of lambs tailed. North Island -0.6% North Island export lamb slaughter is estimated to decrease 0.6 per cent to 9.23 million head compared with , a decrease of 53,000. South Island +0.7% South Island export lamb slaughter is estimated to increase 0.7 per cent to million head compared with , an increase of 71,000. Carcase weights -0.8% The average export lamb slaughter weight is expected to decrease slightly to 18.5kg, but with the potential to increase if good seasonal conditions persist. Sensitivity These estimates are sensitive to feed availability and prices offered by meat companies. If feed supplies tighten or schedule incentives are offered, the number of lambs processed early will tend to increase. 12

14 Ewe Lambing Dates by Region North Island South Island 1,500,000 1,500,000 Northland/Wai/BoP Tara/Man Marl/Cant Otago/Sthld 1,250,000 1,250,000 1,000,000 1,000, , , , , , , Jul 16-Jul 23-Jul 30-Jul 6-Aug 13-Aug 20-Aug 27-Aug 3-Sep 10-Sep 17-Sep 24-Sep 1-Oct 8-Oct 15-Oct 22-Oct 29-Oct 5-Nov 12-Nov 19-Nov 26-Nov 3-Dec 10-Dec 0 9-Jul 16-Jul 23-Jul 30-Jul 6-Aug 13-Aug 20-Aug 27-Aug 3-Sep 10-Sep 17-Sep 24-Sep 1-Oct 8-Oct 15-Oct 22-Oct 29-Oct 5-Nov 12-Nov 19-Nov 26-Nov 3-Dec 10-Dec Week Week Variation in ewe lambing dates between regions is largely due to differences in pasture availability in response to geographically different climates. This is a management response by farmers to ensure that ewes are lambing when feed availability and weather conditions are typically good to provide lambs with the best possible start. 13

15 Region Contacts Economic Service Managers Sam Stewart Wendy Dewar Stephen Lys Tim Hembrow Esnes Gray Sharyn Price Jenny McGimpsey BEEF ( ) BY FARMERS. FOR FARMERS