EU Market Situation for Poultry Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets 23 October 214
Results of the Forecast Group 29 September 214
Thousand Tons 11.592 11.476 11.384 11.838 12.123 12.535 12.945 13.25 13.474 13.718 14.52 14.13 Experts EU Poultry production forecast 13. 11. 9. 214 Broiler +3,3%% 11,53 MioT Turkey -,4% 2,19 MioT Duck +1,7%,46 MioT Total Poultry +2,4% 14,52 MioT 7. 5. 3. 215 Broiler +.5% 11,14 MioT Turkey -.5% 2,9 MioT Duck +.8%,463 MioT Total Poultry +.5% 14,13 MioT
Qty in 1 tonnes Experts EU production forecast of Poultry Meat 214 : 14 51.8 MioT ( + 2.4 %) & 215: 14 13.3 MioT ( +.4 %) 212 213 2 214 215 PL : 175 DE : - 1.1% FR :.3% UK : 1.3% 15 125 ES : 2.1% IT :.1% 1 NL :.6% 75 5 HU : 1.8% 25 BG : 2.% DK : IE : PT : RO : -1.8% SK : 1.5% FI : 3.8% BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK
Qty in 1 tonnes Experts EU production forecast of Broiler Meat 214: 11 53.1 MioT (+ 3.3 %) & 215: 11 14.4 MioT ( +.5 %) 2.4 2.2 2. 212 213 214 215 PL : 1.8 1.6 1.4 DE : -.8% FR :.7% UK :.9% 1.2 ES : 2.% 1. IT :.3% NL :.6% 8 6 4 2 BG : 2.7% DK : IE : HU : 2.9% RO : - 1.4% PT :. % SK : 1.5% FI : 4.3% BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK
Qty in 1 tonnes Experts EU production forecast of Turkey Meat 214: 2 18.9 Th T ( -.4 %) & 215: 2 8.7 Th T ( -.5 %) 212 213 214 215 5 DE : - 2.6% FR : - 2.1% 4 IT :.6% PL : 3 2 ES : HU :.8% UK : 4.9% RO : - 16.7% 1 BG : DK : IE : - 7.7% BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK NL : PT : SK : FI : - 2.8%
Qty in 1 tonnes Experts EU production forecast of Duck Meat 214: 46.1 Th T ( + 1.7 %) & 215: 463.7 Th T ( +.8 %) 212 213 FR :.9% 214 215 2, 1, DE : 1.4% HU :.3%, BG : DK : ES : - 33.3% IE : 11.1% IT : - 9.1% BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK NL : PT : 3.4% SK : UK : 3.5%
1 T Experts EU production forecast of Rabbit Meat 214: 247.5 Th T (- 4.7 %) & 215: 247. ThT ( -.2 %) 212 213 214 215 12, 1, 8, FR : -.6% IT : ES : 6, 4, NL : 2,, BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK
EU Market Situation for Poultry
uro Exchange rate 3,5 3, 1 Euro =... US$ / BRZ Real/ BRZ Real USA $ 2,5 2, 1,5 1, I 28 I 29 I 21 I 211 I 212 I 213 I 214 I source:http://europa.eu.int/comm/budget/inforeuro/fr/index.htm
Futures for Soybeans in US$ct/ Bushel (nearby = 213 & 214) 1.6 Delivery: 1 Nearby 214 Nov 215 215 Mar 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1. July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 214 Feb Mch Apr May Jun July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 9
uro/ Tonn 195 Futures for Feed wheat EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 213 & 214) Delivery: 1 Nearby 214 Nov 215 165 215 Mar 135 15 July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 214 Feb Mrch Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
/Tonn Futures for Maize EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 213-214) 22 Delivery: Nearby 2 214 Nov 215 18 215 Mar 16 14 12 July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 214 Feb Mrt Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Euro / tonne Price of Basic Ingredients 212-214 45 35 25 15 Soft wheat (EU) Barley (EU) Maïs (EU) 5 Soja (CAF) Hulls (EU) April Juil Oct Apr Jul Oct Apr Jul Oct
Euro/ T (feed) Euro/ 1kg (Broiler) Price development of Compound feed for Broilers, a Broiler Cereal-Feedmix and Broiler price 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 margin broiler/ comp feed (2.7 (211) - 2.4 (214)) Cereal-mix Compound feed Broiler Avg. Margin 29-213 (93,99 /1kg) 5 21 211 212 213 214 NB. Comp. Feed 214 =Forecast as from August. Cereal mix and Poultry = Forecast as from October 214.
Remainder uro/ 1kg 1KG Broiler minus feedcost for Broilers feedconversionrate = 2,7 (211) - 2,4 (214) 125 115 15 95 85 75 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 Marge Average Marge Broiler 211 Marge Broiler 212 9-13 Marge Broiler 213 Marge Broiler 214
uro/ 1kg Evolution of the weekly EU average price for Broiler 2 19 18 184 /1 kg 17 1 4 7 1 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 4 43 46 49 52 Moy.9-13 211 212 213 214
Broiler prices in EU, USA and Brazil in uro/ 1kg 2, 184,26 175, 15, 178,59 125, 1, 121,81 75, 1 11 12 13 14 EU = weighted avg of MS prices Broiler 65% US = weekly USDA prices Fresh chicken grade A,Chicago BR = avg of prices in main producing states (Aveworld.com.br) EU broiler US broiler uro BR Broil uro/ (Ave world)
1 p Placings of Broiler chicks (1 pieces) compared to the baseline trend (baseline= monthly avg 21-213) 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 21 211 212 213 214. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 213 513.65 477.485 532.61 549.348 531.591 524.158 535.568 535.52 514.877 529.347 443.434 512.255 214 519 17 491 518 534 852 551 718 542 349 53 863 534 337 356 96 Placings Broiler (baseline= monthly avg 21-213) - Broiler chicks
Forecast in tonnes Forecast and Production of Broilers. In Tonn 75. 9 6. 45. 3. 75 6 45 3 Realised slaughter in 1 T 15. 15 21 211 212 213 214. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 213 58.735 647.721 686.799 629.85 696.547 727.37 75.76 683.619 718.659 695.743 679.332 76.712 214 573 133 675 98 692 147 65 666 76 645 733 432 717 25 75 92 711 944 428 644 Forecast Production Broiler Broiler slaughter
Imports of Poultry meat from selected origins 21 211 212 213 -Aug 14 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to -Aug 13 Brazil 599.759 73,1% 615.837 71,9% 583.45 67,3% 513.537 63,2% 34.724 61,% + % Thailand 149.876 18,3% 155.79 18,2% 197.964 22,8% 228.243 28,1% 163.712 29,3% + 1% Chile 34.43 4,2% 44.434 5,2% 42.192 4,9% 3.516 3,8% 17.893 3,2% - 11% China 9.863 1,2% 13.875 1,6% 15.697 1,8% 18.184 2,2% 13.655 2,4% + 15% Ukraine 2,% 31,% 276,% 9.575 1,7% Argentina 15.795 1,9% 15.7 1,8% 13.766 1,6% 1.783 1,3% 7.77 1,3% + 7% Sw itzerland 673,1% 1.253,1% 3.817,4% 3.814,5% 2.92,5% + 19% Israel 7.219,9% 7.144,8% 6.76,7% 6.36,8% 1.717,3% - 65% Others 3.41,4% 3.37,4% 4.247,5% 1.385,2% 1.334,2% #N/A EXTRA EU 28 82.999 857.1 867.29 813.44 558.59 % change + 4% + 1% - 6% + 1,7%
Tonnes cw 1 EUR EU Poultry meat Imports IMPORTS of Poultry Meat into EU (Tonnes cwe) IMPORTS of Poultry Meat into EU (1 EUR) 554.218 549.49 558.59 6. 5. 1.468.333 1.44.274 1.444.618 1.6. 1.4. 11.643 162.626 163.712 4. 488.687 549.188 587.757 1.2. 1.. 3. 8. 385.416 339.784 34.724 2. 1. 813.126 712.5 71.186 6. 4. 2. -Aug 12 -Aug 13 -Aug 14 -Aug 12 -Aug 13 -Aug 14 Brazil Thailand Israel Chile China Other origins Brazil Thailand Israel Chile China Other origins
in Tonnes cwe Imports of selected Poultry products 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2. 6 26 7 27 8 28 9 29 1 21 11 211 12 212 13 213 14 214 FROZEN PREPARED SALTE D OTHER S
South Africa Russia (up to Apr) Canada South Africa Russia (up to Apr) Canada Japan Japan EU Mexico (up to Jul) EU Mexico (up to Jul) Qty in 1 Tonnes China + H. Kong China + H. Kong Main Importers of POULTRY Products (up to August) Source : GTA & Eurostat (excl.: live animals) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 213 (up to August) 214 (up to August)
Exports of Poultry Meat to Selected Destinations 21 211 212 213 -Aug 14 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to -Aug 13 South Africa 22.7 1,7% 94.84 6,7% 131.832 9,2% 158.481 11,1% 124.82 12,9% + 28% Benin 115.66 9,1% 126.215 8,9% 139.82 9,8% 139.415 9,8% 17.49 11,1% + 13% Hong Kong 151.729 12,% 189.154 13,4% 126.74 8,8% 117.17 8,2% 87.658 9,1% + 16% Saudi Arabia 118.19 9,3% 151.52 1,7% 149.31 1,4% 154.775 1,9% 84.596 8,7% - 22% Russia 245.478 19,4% 115.138 8,1% 113.133 7,9% 95.183 6,7% 67.631 7,% + 9% Ukraine 86.9 6,8% 81.69 5,8% 13.429 7,2% 76.15 5,3% 39.44 4,1% - 26% Ghana 41.66 3,2% 68.979 4,9% 69.157 4,8% 75.125 5,3% 35.894 3,7% - 33% Philippines 15.87 1,2% 3.341 2,1% 3.765 2,2% 35.674 2,5% 34.279 3,5% + 59% For.JRep.Mac 14.323 1,1% 24.792 1,8% 32.748 2,3% 36.531 2,6% 22.246 2,3% - 9% Sw itzerland 29.84 2,4% 29.411 2,1% 29.275 2,% 3.79 2,2% 2.624 2,1% - 2% Congo (Dem. Rep.) 27.749 2,2% 29.973 2,1% 34.232 2,4% 28.6 2,% 19.856 2,1% - 12% Other Destinations 398.518 31,5% 472.361 33,4% 47.784 32,9% 478.856 33,6% 323.515 33,4% Extra-EU 28 1.264.856 1.413.657 1.43.558 1.426.472 967.572 % change + 12% + 1% - % + 1,%
Tonnes cw 1 EUR EU Poultry meat Export EU EXPORTS of Poultry Meat (Tonnes cwe) EU EXPORTS of Poultry Meat (1 EUR) 926.966 958.18 967.572 54.81 519.12 495.817 69.686 62.23 67.631 86.884 94.49 17.49 18.843 84.596 124.82 86.573 75.874 87.658 -Aug 12 -Aug 13 -Aug 14 1.2. 1.. 8. 6. 4. 2. Hong Kong South Africa Saudi Arabia Benin Russia Other destinations * * countries trading less than 4 Tons 1.294.43 742.434 1.4.11 816.992 1.315.12 757.3 117.796 126.69 135.555 137.55 183.965 128.348 99.297 84.84 98.482 -Aug 12 -Aug 13 -Aug 14 1.6. 1.4. 1.2. 1.. 8. 6. 4. 2. Hong Kong South Africa Saudi Arabia Benin Russia Other destinations * * countries trading less than 95 (' EUR)
in Tonnes cwe Exports of selected Poultry products 16. 14. 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2. 6 26 7 27 8 28 9 29 1 21 11 211 12 212 13 213 14 214 FROZEN PREPARED FRESH OTHERS
Thailand Argentina Turkey Thailand Argentina Turkey United States EU China + H. Kong United States EU China + H. Kong Qty in 1 Tonnes Brazil Brazil Main Exporters of POULTRY Products (up to August) Source : GTA & Eurostat (excl. live animals) 2. 1.5 1. 5 213 (up to August) 214 (up to August)
in 1 Tonnes cwe EU Poultry meat Trade Balance 1.6 IMPORTS EXPORTS 1.414 1.431 1.426 1.4 1.275 1.265 1.17 1.11 1.116 1.153 1.114 1.63 1.46 997 997 982 1.16 968 1.2 1. 794 858 867 891 876 821 857 867 813 8 676 614 616 559 6 48 32 277 292 31 371 4 2 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 - Aug 14