EU Market Situation for Poultry Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets 23 July 2015
uro Exchange rate 3,5 3,0 1 Euro =... US$ / BRZ Real/ BRZ Real USA $ 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 I 2008 I 2009 I 2010 I 2011 I 2012 I 2013 I 2014 I 2015 I source:http://europa.eu.int/comm/budget/inforeuro/fr/index.htm
Futures for Soybeans in US$ct/ Bushel (nearby = 2013 & 2014) 1.350 Delivery: 01 Nearby 2015 Aug 2015 Nov 2016 1.250 1.150 1.050 950 850 July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2015 Feb Mch Apr May Jun July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
uro/ Tonn Futures for Feed wheat EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2014 & 2015) Delivery: 190 01 Nearby 2015 Nov 2016 2016 May 160 130 100 July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Feb Mrch Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
/Tonn Futures for Maize EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2014-2015) 220 200 180 160 140 Delivery: Nearby 2015 Aug 2015 11 Nov 2016 120 July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Feb Mrt Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Euro / tonne Price of Basic Ingredients 2012-2015 450 350 250 Soft wheat (EU) Barley (EU) Maïs (EU) Soja (CAF) Hulls (EU) 150 50 April Juil Oct Apr Jul Oct Apr Jul Oct Apr Jul Oct
Change in Poultry slaughter I-IV 2015 compared to same period 2014 12,0% 8,0% 4,0% 0,0% 12,8% 12,7% 9,6% 8,3% 7,0% 6,1% 4,4% 3,3% 3,0% 2,9% 2,2% 2,2% 1,8% 1,7% 1,1% 0,9% 0,6% 0,0% 0,0% 3,1% -4,0% -0,2% -0,4% -0,4% -1,0% -2,0% -2,2% -3,8% -5,0% -8,0% PL HU CY RO SE LT AT PT FR IT BG LV BE CZ EI UK NL EE SK SF DE EL SI ES MT DK HR EU
509.602 518.955 469.753 489.276 523.383 521.073 532.407 500.718 524.893 511.272 476.091 529.157 444.966 404.549 371.829 534.245 551.182 545.706 536.027 552.485 513.339 525.981 519.933 494.113 408.070 514.108 477.471 467.057 535.051 495.664 531.949 546.799 549.269 550.299 531.560 524.443 535.845 536.404 515.640 529.144 600.000 Placings of Broiler chicks (1 000 pieces) 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 0 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012 2013 2014 2015
Parameters for the calculation of the estimated production of broilers Parameter National Average Live weight (kg) at Slaughter National Average Carcass yield (%) National Average Mortality (%) National Average Period of rearing (days) BE BG CZ DK DE EE GR ES FR HR IE IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK 2013 2,40 2,10 1,90 2,10 2,11 2,39 2,40 2,66 2,02 1,99 2,04 2,60 2,64 2,10 2,44 2,40 2,33 2,55 2,23 1,83 2,44 1,85 2,20 2,20 2,12 2,34 1,91 2,23 68% 73,0% 74,0% 75,0% 70,0% 71,0% 75,0% 70,2% 67,0% 69,4% 71,7% 70,1% 77,0% 74,4% 75,1% 68% 70,1% 74,0% 66,0% 75,0% 69,9% 72,4% 70,5% 72,5% 72,5% 75,0% 69,0% 2,0% 4,3% 4,0% 2,5% 40,0 51* 35,0 35,0 3.0-3.5% (l.w) 4.0% (h.w.) 30-38 2,5% - 3,0% 6,0% 5,2% 4,2% 3,7% 2,9% 5,0% 3,2% 3,3% 5,0% 2,0% 4,2% 6,5% 3,5% 4,2% 4,2% 2,6% 2,5% 3,9% 3,5% 3,5% 4,8% 37-40 45,0 43,5 37,7 35,0 36,9 35/46 47,4 37,1 40,0 40,0 41,5 45,0 41,0 35,00 42,0 37,8 41,0 37,7 38,5 37,0 42,0
609.994 573.133 649.214 675.908 666.906 692.269 605.228 647.505 671.459 706.405 679.304 733.270 685.149 720.545 652.726 710.874 680.072 733.943 653.853 680.341 621.122 696.588 681.395 689.888 580.752 534.433 647.717 675.008 687.235 629.797 713.844 664.304 696.449 729.033 727.307 705.734 683.893 718.924 696.587 679.792 744.385 706.799 800.000 Forecast and Production of broiler (In tonnes) 700.000 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 0 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012 2013 2014 2015
uro/ 100kg Evolution of the weekly EU average price for Broiler 205 195 185 194,25 /100 kg 175 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: MSs weekly communications Moy. 10-14 2013 2014 2015
Broiler prices in EU, USA and Brazil in uro/ 100kg 200,00 175,00 191,99 182,41 150,00 125,00 100,00 103,08 75,00 11 12 13 14 15 EU = weighted avg of MS prices Broiler 65% US = weekly USDA prices Fresh chicken grade A,Chicago BR = avg of prices in main producing states (Aveworld.com.br) EU broiler US broiler uro BR Broil uro/ (Ave world)
Euro/ T (feed) Euro/ 100kg (Broiler) Price development of Compound feed for Broilers, a Broiler Cereal-Feedmix and Broiler price 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 margin broiler/ comp feed (2.7 (2011) - 2.4 (2014)) Cereal-mix Compound feed Broiler Avg. Margin 2009-2013 (93,99 /100kg) 50 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 NB. Comp. Feed 2014 =Forecast as from February 2015. Cereal mix and Poultry = Forecast as from June 2015.
Remainder uro/ 100kg 100KG Broiler minus feedcost for Broilers feedconversionrate = 2,7 (2011) - 2,4 (2014) 125 115 105 95 85 75 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 Marge Average Marge Broiler 2012 Marge Broiler 2013 10-14 Marge Broiler 2014 Marge Broiler 2015
TRADE
Imports of Poultry meat from selected origins 2011 2012 2013 2014 -May 15 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to -May 14 Brazil 615.832 71,9% 583.449 67,3% 514.339 63,2% 500.569 59,7% 175.646 53,8% - 22% Thailand 155.788 18,2% 197.962 22,8% 228.238 28,0% 250.338 29,9% 114.506 35,1% + 17% Ukraine 31 0,0% 276 0,0% 19.928 2,4% 13.642 4,2% +++ Chile 44.433 5,2% 42.192 4,9% 30.515 3,7% 25.801 3,1% 9.090 2,8% - 24% China 13.874 1,6% 15.698 1,8% 18.145 2,2% 19.703 2,4% 6.953 2,1% - 17% Argentina 15.700 1,8% 13.766 1,6% 10.783 1,3% 10.993 1,3% 3.097 0,9% - 24% Sw itzerland 1.253 0,1% 3.817 0,4% 3.817 0,5% 4.234 0,5% 1.029 0,3% - 45% USA 129 0,0% 352 0,0% 193 0,0% 43 0,0% 804 0,2% + 13044% Others 10.051 1,2% 9.968 1,1% 7.525 0,9% 6.326 0,8% 1.654 0,5% #N/A EXTRA EU 28 857.092 867.203 813.832 837.935 326.422 % change + 1% - 6% + 3% - 7,0%
Tonnes cw 1000 EUR EU Poultry meat Imports IMPORTS of Poultry Meat into EU (Tonnes cwe) IMPORTS of Poultry Meat into EU (1000 EUR) 364.160 350.957 113.401 97.725 326.422 114.506 400.000 350.000 300.000 250.000 200.000 909.549 899.960 912.369 359.060 357.466 415.103 1.000.000 900.000 800.000 700.000 600.000 500.000 221.123 223.869 175.646 150.000 100.000 50.000 458.885 455.197 394.023 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 -May 13 -May 14 -May 15 0 -May 13 -May 14 -May 15 0 Brazil Thailand Ukraine Chile China Other origins Brazil Thailand Ukraine Chile China Other origins
in Tonnes cwe Imports of selected Poultry products 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 0 FROZEN PREPARED SALTED OTHERS
Canada South Africa Russia (up to Apr) South Africa Russia (up to Apr) Canada EU Japan EU Mexico (up to Apr) Japan China + H. Kong China + H. Kong Mexico (up to Apr) Qty in 1000 Tonnes Main Importers of POULTRY Products (up to May) Source : GTA & Eurostat (excl.: live animals) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 2014 (up to May) 2015 (up to May) 0
Exports of Poultry Meat to Selected Destinations 2011 2012 2013 2014 -May 15 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to -May 14 South Africa 94.083 6,7% 131.832 9,2% 158.510 11,1% 203.414 13,5% 72.270 12,4% - 12% Benin 126.213 8,9% 139.817 9,8% 139.247 9,8% 163.793 10,9% 69.720 11,9% + 8% Saudi Arabia 151.520 10,7% 149.310 10,4% 154.775 10,9% 123.559 8,2% 57.564 9,8% + 10% Philippines 30.341 2,1% 30.764 2,2% 35.674 2,5% 57.621 3,8% 43.128 7,4% + 128% Hong Kong 189.151 13,4% 126.072 8,8% 117.152 8,2% 136.088 9,0% 40.483 6,9% - 25% Ghana 68.978 4,9% 69.156 4,8% 75.216 5,3% 56.883 3,8% 26.761 4,6% + 49% Ukraine 81.687 5,8% 103.427 7,2% 75.966 5,3% 80.208 5,3% 24.521 4,2% + 29% Gabon 25.601 1,8% 26.298 1,8% 25.070 1,8% 29.409 2,0% 16.299 2,8% + 40% Congo (Dem. Rep.) 29.972 2,1% 34.231 2,4% 28.625 2,0% 33.723 2,2% 15.373 2,6% + 37% For.JRep.Mac 24.790 1,8% 32.747 2,3% 36.530 2,6% 33.552 2,2% 13.435 2,3% - 1% Russia 115.136 8,1% 113.134 7,9% 95.179 6,7% 68.325 4,5% 337 0,1% - 99% Other Destinations 476.174 33,7% 473.766 33,1% 484.421 34,0% 517.311 34,4% 205.207 35,1% Extra-EU 28 1.413.647 1.430.554 1.426.365 1.503.885 585.096 % change + 1% - 0% + 5% + 0,1%
Tonnes cw 1000 EUR EU Poultry meat Export EU EXPORTS of Poultry Meat (Tonnes cwe) EU EXPORTS of Poultry Meat (1000 EUR) 591.026 584.640 585.096 339.809 313.011 301.931 53.587 54.161 40.483 10.879 18.927 43.128 52.243 57.564 69.720 63.015 81.754 72.270 -May 13 -May 14 -May 15 700.000 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 0 878.488 807.625 857.037 552.257 500.552 502.995 7.699 20.309 10.129 120.429 78.464 101.684 64.838 78.199 78.236 -May 13 -May 14 -May 15 1.000.000 900.000 800.000 700.000 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 0 South Africa Benin Saudi Arabia Philippines Hong Kong Other destinations * South Africa Benin Saudi Arabia Philippines Hong Kong Other destinations * * countries trading less than 27 000 Tons * countries trading less than 59 000 ('000 EUR)
Exports of selected Poultry products 180.000 160.000 140.000 I 120.000n t 100.000 o n 80.000 s 60.000 C W E 40.000 20.000 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 0 FROZEN PREPARED FRESH OTHERS
in 1000 Tonnes cwe EU Poultry meat Trade Balance 1.504 IMPORTS EXPORTS 1.275 1.265 1.414 1.431 1.426 1.600 1.400 1.017 1.101 1.116 1.153 1.114 1.063 1.046 997 997 982 1.016 1.200 1.000 794 858867 891 876 821 857 867 814 838 800 676 614 616 585 600 480 302 277 292 310 371 326 400 200 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 - May 15 0
Thailand EU Turkey (up to Apr) Argentina Thailand EU Turkey (up to Apr) Argentina China + H. Kong China + H. Kong Qty in 1000 Tonnes United States United States Brazil Brazil Main Exporters of POULTRY Products (up to May) Source : GTA & Eurostat (excl. live animals) 1.800 1.600 1.400 1.200 1.000 800 600 400 200 2014 (up to May) 2015 (up to May) 0