Emergence of Zoonotic Diseases and the Link to Land Use Change

Emergence of Zoonotic Diseases and the Link to Land Use Change Presented by Tom Hughes Project Coordinator, EcoHealth Alliance Malaysia Country Coordinator, PREDICT Deputy Chief of Party, IDEEAL MPOC International Palm Oil Sustainability Conference 19-20 August 2014 Photo: T Hughes EcoHealth Alliance Photo: T Hughes EcoHealth Alliance

EcoHealth Alliance EcoHealth Alliance is an international organization of scientists dedicated to the conservation of biodiversity. For more than 40 years, EcoHealth Alliance has focused its efforts on conservation. Today, we are known for our innovative research on the intricate relationships between wildlife, ecosystems and human health. EcoHealth Alliance's work spans the U.S. and more than 20 countries in Central and South America, the Caribbean, Africa and Asia to research ways for people and wildlife to share bioscapes for their mutual survival. Our strength is built on our innovations in research, education and training and our accessibility to international conservation partners. Internationally, our programs support conservationists in over a dozen countries at the local level to save endangered species and their habitats and to protect delicate ecosystems for the benefit of wildlife and humans.

USAID Goal: The early detection and prevention of emerging zoonotic diseases that threaten human health

Zoonotic pathogen Emergence ~ 50% of known human pathogens are zoonotic 75% of emerging human pathogens are zoonotic; most originate in wildlife. Most zoonoses emerge due to human activities Complex process!

Global Aviation Network 10 25000 Copyright 2004 by the National Academy of Sciences Hufnagel, L. et al. (2004) PNAS

2011 Bio-era Economic Impact of Selected Infectious Disease Outbreaks

Nipah Virus Respiratory and neurological disease Infected 265 farm workers (40% mortality) Most cases worked on pig farms

Photo: KB Chua

Global Challenges to Wildlife Surveillance and Response to Emerging Zoonoses There is no single agency responsible for global wildlife disease surveillance Veterinary and wildlife departments often lack expertise in wildlife health/disease Laboratories in many countries are unable to detect/diagnose wildlife pathogens; known or novel zoonoses Inter-ministerial cooperation/communication is often lacking

EPT Malaysia Malaysia has all phases of EPT operational PREDICT working closely with three sectors of government: Wildlife, Livestock, and Human Health Active on both Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo (Sabah) Deep Forest project will asses impact of land use change on viral diversity in wildlife Year 5 activities include surveillance, capacity building, and policy-level coordination

Operationalizing One Health PREDICT Malaysia Regular meetings with the Zoonosis Technical Working Committee PREDICT Country Coordinator, Department of Veterinary Services (DVS), Ministry of Health (MOH) and the Department of Wildlife and National Parks (DWNP) discuss issues related to zoonoses. Regular meetings between PREDICT CC, Sabah Wildlife Department (SWD), and Department of State Health, Sabah (DSHS) to discuss issues related to biodiversity and zoonoses. Developing study with MOH and DWNP of Orang Asli exposure to wildlife viruses Human surveillance with SWD, DSHS and PREVENT in Sabah/Deep Forest.

PREDICT Malaysia DWNP Sampling and Outbreak Response Team EHA trained 30 DWNP officers; DWNP established dedicated, self-sufficient team to conduct active wildlife surveillance and outbreak response. DWNP sampled 706 animals for WDSP (funded by DWNP). PREDICT will support sample testing at DWNP and VRI. Photo: T Hughes EcoHealth Alliance Photo: T Hughes EcoHealth Alliance

Laboratory System Improvements PREDICT Malaysia Improved testing and biosafety protocols for PREDICT labs at DWNP and VRI. DWNP staff working at VRI to screen wildlife samples. PREDICT and IDENTIFY standardizing protocols and SOPs for the PREDICT Laboratory Network Malaysia. (DWNP, VRI, SWD) Photo: T Hughes EcoHealth Alliance Photo: T Hughes EcoHealth Alliance

EHA, SWD & DGFC Collaborations PREDICT Project will integrate wildlife disease surveillance into the public health infrastructure in order to create an early warning system for potential zoonotic disease spillover into domestic animals and humans. Deep Forest project will asses impact of land use change on viral diversity in wildlife and wildlife populations. USFW Great Ape Grant is focused on understanding and mitigating the health threats facing endangered orangutans and Mu ller s gibbons in Sabah. Infectious Disease Emergence and Economics of Altered Landscapes Project will examine how changes in land cover and land-use has affected the incidence of disease over the last few decades. We will calculate the value of damages from past disease outbreaks, and construct a model for expected damages under different land use scenarios, and different severity of outbreaks.

PREDICT Malaysia: Sabah 2013/2014 Capacity Building EHA through PREDICT conducted biosafety training at VRI in Nov. 2012 30 participants (SWD, DGFC, DWNP, and DVS) and biosafety training at SWD Lok Kawi Zoo and the WHGFL Aug. 2013 22 participants (SWD, DGFC, DWNP, and DVS) Sample collection and handling, biosafety, PPE and PAPR demonstrations, chemical spill situational practice, risk assessments for field and lab work, laboratory waste management and biosafety cabinet use. Photos: T Hughes EcoHealth Alliance

PREDICT Malaysia: Sabah 2013/2014 Capacity Building 3 PREDICT training sessions in Sabah: 82 participants from SWD, WWF Malaysia, DGFC, SORC, BSBCC and the Institute for Tropical Biodiversity and Conservation, University Malaysia Sabah. Zoonoses in wildlife; capture and sampling safety, sample handling and storage; PPE and hygiene. Wet labs on PPE use; primate, bat, and rodent handling and sampling. Photo: MH Lee EcoHealth Alliance

PREDICT Malaysia: Sabah 2013/2014 Laboratory System Improvements SWD, EHA and DGFC have established the Wildlife Health, Genetic and Forensic Laboratory that has all the equipment necessary to store samples, run extractions, PCR and analysis on biological samples for disease surveillance. The lab is used to conduct health checks on rescued and relocated wildlife before being released into new areas or sanctuaries, to screen samples for the PREDICT and Deep Forest Project and for genetic research and forensic investigations. Photos: T Hughes EcoHealth Alliance Photo: T Hughes EcoHealth Alliance Photo: T Hughes EcoHealth Alliance

PREDICT Malaysia: Sabah 2013/2014 Capacity Building: lab activities EHA has shared the PREDICT Positive Control with SWD that can be used to screen for 25 different viral families. The Protocols and Positive Control have been used to screen samples collected by EHA, SWD and DGFC at both WHGFL and VRI. Photo: T Hughes EcoHealth Alliance Photo: T Hughes EcoHealth Alliance

PREDICT Malaysia: Sabah 2013/2014 Sabah: PREDICT and Deep Forest Project EHA established Sabah Wildlife Health Unit with SWD & DGFC. The WHU is responsible for leading the physical and diagnostic evaluation of rescued and relocated wildlife across the state as well as conducting sampling trips to trap and sample free ranging wildlife. Photo: T Hughes EcoHealth Alliance Photo: J Lee EcoHealth Alliance Photo: T Hughes EcoHealth Alliance

Summary of Animals Sampled WHU (EHA, SWD, DGFC) has collected 11,291 specimens from 1,144 animals EHA and DWNP have collected 15,656 specimens from 1060 animals in Peninsular Malaysia. DWNP dedicated sample team has collected 4900 specimens from 720 animals in Peninsular Malaysia. To date in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah 3,146 samples from 1,127 animals have been screened for 21 viral families. Screening at CU, DWNP, VRI and WHGFL has found 9 novel viruses and 16 known viruses.

Land use change and EIDs 43% of past EID events are attributable to land use change and agricultural changes, including extractive industries Economic impact: $10-40 billion in potential liability over the next 10 years Potential for intervention?

Government Mandated Operation Shutdown Over 150 known cases of Marburg, 83% case fatality in an outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo 1998-2000 The association between Marburg cases and local gold mines led to closure of one mine for six years

Protestors close operations In the Northern Peruvian Amazon, oil concessions produced on average 70,000 barrels of oil per day Local protests regarding health concerns forced closure of facilities for two weeks in 2006 Resulting production losses of approximately 980,000 barrels (~$63,837,200)

Borneo, Kinabatangan R. USAID EPT-PREDICT: DEEP FOREST Brazil: Amazon basin Bwindi, Uganda

Standardized surveys across three land-use types Pristine forest Fragmented habitats Rural urban centers LDI 1 LDI 4 LDI 10

Valuing Ecosystem Services $$ Economic damages to society from disease outbreaks if we convert the forest Future deforestation scenarios: business-as-usual, increased deforestation, and no deforestation Work with the Palm Oil industry to reduce impact. Bring $$ value of health into carbon offset program (REDD+), a global strategy to reduce CO2 production by trading the value of intact forest

Land use change: issues Evidence links land-use change to public health threats Damages are greater than the cost of infection - trade and commerce - productivity Environmental impact of land-use change has been well documented. What about health impacts?

Land use change: why is it an economic problem? Economics: study of allocation of scarce resources

Land use change: why is it an economic problem? Natural landscapes are limited in supply and valuable

Land use change: why is it an economic problem? Multiple land uses, must understand trade-offs of management decisions

Land use change: why is it an economic problem? Tropical forest landscape Preserve Convert Natural value Agricultural value Which one is better? Cannot say without knowing more!

Questions Are land-use related outbreaks costly enough to alter the management plan of a landscape? - How much land should be converted? - When should land be converted to minimize the cost of an outbreak?

Modeling land use change Model: simplified version of a system a tropical forest landscape Equations to represent the economic value of alternative land uses Land preservation, conversion Equations contain costs and benefits of different land uses

Conversion: Benefits Benefits Meet global demand for goods and services Generate household income Regional/national economic growth

Conversion: Costs Costs Converting land costs money - clearing forest - cultivating field Maintaining land productivity - fertilizer - irrigation Lost ecosystem benefits - Abiotic and biotic services - Naturally derived products - Exposure to disease

Model objectives How much land should be converted to maximize the value of the landscape? When should land be converted?

What does the model do? In every time step - measures what is gained (in $$) by converting land - agricultural gains - and what is lost - ecosystem services (biodiversity, pollination) - production and conversion costs - costs of infection

Should land be converted? Value of preserving Value of converting

Application: Brazilian Amazon Why the Amazon? ecosystem of global importance 20+ years of land use/land cover change data malaria known related to deforestation lots of existing data

How are results produced? Model equations are tailored to a regional landscape - first simulations: Brazilian Amazon - Collect data on - value of economic activity (agriculture, timber concessions, etc.) - ecosystem service production - economic cost of a disease (treatment + prevention + lost work time)

Land conversion (hectares) Application to Brazilian Amazon 90000000 80000000 Total conversion: models and actual 70000000 60000000 50000000 40000000 30000000 20000000 Amazon (actual) model - no outbreak model - outbreak 10000000 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year

Billions Results: economic impact 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 65813.72176 Value of landscape ~ $60 trillion loss 5575.716179 0 Model with outbreak Brazilian Amazon

Conclusions Damages from outbreak can alter land use strategies Very preliminary simulations for a very flexible model. can run model for a variety of land use scenarios Next steps: collect data and run simulations for Sabah

Outreach, capacity building and results integration Launching a Development and Health Unit based in the School of Business and Economics at UMS A stakeholder engagement program is underway to bring industry, govt., academia and others together to increase outreach, disseminate findings, models, tool kits and handbooks Goal is to develop public-private partnerships that use this approach to build more sustainable development

Acknowledgements EcoHealth Alliance: P. Daszak, W. Karesh, J. Epstein, K. Olival, T. Hughes, E. Loh, MH. Lee, J. Lee, A. Tahir, K. Murray, C. Zambrana-Torrelio, M. Rostal Columbia University CII: W. Ian Lipkin, S. Anthony, M. Sanchez, Isa, E. Liang SWD: Dato Ambu, A. Tuuga, J. Shukor, S. Nathan, R. Symphorosa, D. Ramirez, WHU, WRU DSHS: C. Rundi, M. Suleiman, T. William DGFC: B. Goossens, M. Lynn HUTUAN: M. Ancrenaz, I. Lackman Our Work is supported by: USAID Emerging Pandemic Threats: PREDICT USFW Great Ape Grant USAID Infectious Disease Emergence and Economics of Altered Landscapes: IDEEAL EcoHealth Alliance ecohealthalliance.org USAID www.usaid.gov