World Egg and Poultry meat Production, Trade, and Supply. Present And The Future. Dr. Edward Gillin, Chief Basic Data Branch Statistics Division FAO

World Egg and Poultry meat Production, Trade, and Supply Present And The Future Dr. Edward Gillin, Chief Basic Data Branch Statistics Division FAO Egg production, trade and supply Present and perspectives When addressing the subject of international poultry and egg development, aspects of production, trade and supply must be discussed. The poultry industry in South Africa is currently undergoing significant difficulties, as cheaper products are being imported, mainly from the United States. During the 9s, imports from the United States have risen from a few hundred tons to approximately 35, MT last year. This trend is expected to continue in the next few years. As in the last decade, China and Brazil will also continue to export their products to South Africa and be strong contenders for this market, should U.S. exports decrease. The world-wide industry is made up of both the egg industry and the poultry meat industry. These are, of course, two very different industries which face different elasticities of demand and cross-elasticities. Eggs have no competition. There are almost no broiler companies which produce eggs, and vice-versa. 1. Egg production- Current situation Using FAO's statistics, between 1961 and 2, annual world egg production rose by 1

more than 3.5 times to reach about 55 million tons (all eggs not just hen eggs); about 6 % are hatching eggs. This large, rather linear, increase was due to the rapid expansion in egg production of developing countries. Starting from a low base of 3.8 million tons in 1961, developing countries achieved an 4 Trend of annual egg production, 1961-2 ' metric tons 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 Developed Countries increase of egg production almost 1-fold, with growth mainly in Asia. This trend was seriously influenced by the development of egg production in China, from 1.6 million MT in 1961 to 22.3 million MT in 2, with an annual growth rate of about 8 percent. 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 Developing Countries 1995 1997 1999 Trend of annual egg production, 1961-2 ' metric tons 25 2 15 1 5 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 China 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 On the other hand, developed countries increased their production by only 1.6 per cent annually. In the year 199 the contribution of developed and developing countries to the world egg production was approximately equal (49.1% developing countries and 5.9% developed countries). 2

million metric tons 6 5 4 3 2 1 World egg production structure, in period 199-2 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 Developed Countries Developing Countries By the year 2 egg production of developed countries represented only 34% of total world egg production; the decrease of their contribution in the last 1 years thus being a reality. In term of absolute figures, annual egg production of developed countries was constantly less than 2 million MT. Out of the total quantity of eggs produced by developed countries in the year 2 (18484 thousand MT), 67% of production came from Europe and North America. Countries of the former Soviet Union contributed 16% of the global production figures. Western Europe 3% Egg production in developed countries The year 2 Africa 2% Asia 14% Eastern Euro 8% Africa 5% Latin Amer & Caribbean 14% Egg production in developing countries The year 2 Oceania % North America % USSR, Former Area of 16% Oceania 1% North America 29% Asia 81% In the same year, Asian countries alone contributed 81% of total egg production of developing countries. In fact, egg production of Asian developing countries (36261 thousand MT) was double that produced in developed countries in 2. During the last 1 years the growth of annual egg production recorded a significant decrease from 35 thousand MT in 1994 to only 2 thousand MT in 1997. 3

' metric tons 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Growth in world egg production, in period 1991-2 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 The regional breakdown over the decade shows the spectacular growth of egg production in Asia (223.2%). In North & Central America, Africa and South America egg production indexes in 2 against 199 were between 121% and 127%, which could be considered as a moderate growth rate. During the same period, total egg production in Europe recorded a negative trend (-14.6%). Eggs primary Production (Mt) Year 199 1995 2 Production Index 2/199 % Asia 1457 26383792 32382273 223.2 Africa 155636 1775547 1977197 127.1 Europe 11125 9595261 95699 85.4 North & C. 5779496 6411476 7467374 129.2 America Oceania 245813 2142 266876 18.6 South 2253369 265566 272814 121.1 America World 37553973 4732667 54327959 144.7 In the period 199-2, the major contributors to the growth of annual egg production were: China (+13987 thousand MT), United States of America (+977 thousand MT), Mexico (+ 624 thousand MT), India (+621 thousand MT), Turkey (+45 thousand MT) Brazil (+168 thousand MT). The share of output produced by these countries represented about 7% of total world egg production in the year 2. 4

Country 199 2 Production Country Production (thousand (thousand metric tons) metric tons) Production growth (2-199) (thousand metric tons) China 8172 China 22161 +13989 USA 434 USA 511 +977 Russia 2641 Japan 258 +89 Japan 2419 Russia 1877-764 India 1161 India 1782 +621 Brazil 1256 Mexico 1634 +625 Mexico 19 Brazil 1424 +168 Germany 985 France 15 +164 Ukraine 944 Germany 88-15 France 886 Turkey 79 +45 Total 2357 Total 38172 +16169 Share of world Share of world production 62.6 production 7.3 96,4 The contribution of these first ten producers to the increase in world egg production represented 96.4% of total growth; China with +13989 thousand MT (83.4% of world egg production growth) being the absolute leader for this period. Only in the last three years (1998-2), egg production in the Far East increased by 1815 thousand MT, this evolution being seriously influenced by the egg quantities produced in China, India, Iran, Myanmar and Indonesia. In North America, the production growth was influenced by the trend recorded above all in Mexico. Indonesia Myanmar Paraguay Colombia Iran India Mexico China Increase in egg production, 1998-2 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 ' metric tons 13 14 15 16 17 18

USSR, Former Area of Oceania North America Near East Latin Amer & Caribbean Europe Africa Far East Regional growth in egg production 1998-2 5 1 15 2 ' metric tons On the other hand in some countries as the United Kingdom, Thailand, Japan, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Denmark, Belarus, Finland, Estonia egg production recorded a negative trend in the last three years. Countries recording significant decrease in egg production, in 1998-2 Es to nia Finland Belarus Denmark Hungary Slovakia Czech Republic Japan Thailand Unite d Kingdo m -6-5 -4-3 -2-1 ' metric tons In these countries alone the total decrease in egg production between 1998 and 2 was 22 thousand MT. 2. The forecast of egg production for the year 215 According to FAO studies world egg production is forecast to reach 72 million MT (today it is 55 million) by 215. Again, as in the past most of the increase will 6

originate in the developing world. Production in developed countries is expected to increase from current levels of 18 million MT to only 2 million MT in the next 15 years. In many developed countries, food saturation or over-consumption has meant that growth has halted. While production in developing countries, based on revised growth rates, may reach at least 52 million metric tons making a world total of 72 million tons in the year 215-31% above current production. Estimated egg production increase, The Year 215: 2 Metric tons China + 5 Mexico + 2 31 India + 814 Brazil + 472 World + 17 19 Between now and the year 215 China s egg production will increase 23 % (from the expected production of 22 million MT in 2) (although this depends on the availability of feed and feed prices). Together with the increase forecast for India this will dwarf the increase of Brazil and Mexico There are potential areas of growth in some African countries, (given income growth and an end to civil strife). Even greater potential exists in Central and South America (the requirement once again being prosperity). In these regions there is a large market particularly in Chile and Mexico and to a lesser extent Costa Rica, Colombia and Venezuela. In the Middle East, Iraq is trying to get back on its feet while Iran will continue to show strong consumer demand. Iran is now self-sufficient in eggs and exporting around $1million (plus $55 million of egg pasta in 1997 and $25 million in 1999). Iran is the largest wheat importer in the world, and also imports animal feed. The wheat and eggs are transformed into egg pasta which is exported to its neighbours. The future will see continued production and consumption growth in India (the egg surplus is expected to dry up there), as well as the large Asian populous countries of Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines, Turkey and, of course, Iran. The oil producers, with cheap energy, will continue to be growth areas. In North Africa, particularly Egypt, expansion is anticipated. Libya will become a growing market for egg consumption; Saudi Arabia's large exportable surplus will most 7

likely disappear. 3. Egg imports and exports During the remainder of this decade the outlook for the international egg trade is somewhat bleak, it is likely to remain a buyer's market. Leading Importers of Shell Eggs, in 1999 Leading Exporters of Shell Eggs, in 1999 Switzerland Canada It aly Bangladesh Belg ium-luxemb o urg Singapore France Russian Federation Netherlands China, Hong Kong SAR Germany 5 1 15 2 25 3 ' metric tons Turkey Spain China, Mainland Malays ia France United States of America Germany Belgium-Luxembo urg Belarus Netherlands 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 4 45 5 ' metric tons Including intra European trade, in 1999, the major importers of eggs were: Germany, Hong Kong, Netherlands, Russian Federation, France and Singapore. Top 1 egg importing countries 1994 1999 thousand eggs thousand egg 1999/1994 % Germany 575 6165 +2 Netherlands 1178 1755 +8 Japan 1696 172 = Hong Kong 1691 1529-2 France 1185 15 +5 Italy 9 132 +3 Belgium 722 974 +6 United Kingdom 697 891 +5 Canada 551 88 +1 Denmark 183 489 +22 Some of these countries make up the largest egg exporters in the world: the Netherlands, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy and Canada. 8

Top 1 egg exporting countries 1994 1999 thousand eggs thousand 1999/1994 % eggs Netherlands 7876 8523 +2 Belgium 1948 2989 +9 United States 2251 194-3 France 1298 18 +7 Germany 1233 1436 +3 Spain 167 8 +37 China 647 77 +4 Turkey 164 65 +32 Italy 381 624 +1 Canada 295 396 +6 In the last five years Germany has been the biggest importer of egg and egg products, 46% (in 1995), which went up to 49% (in 1997). From the total eggs imported, most went to the domestic market, the rest were re-exported. Egg importing countries (including egg products, excluding hatching eggs) 1% 6 1 3 3 3 5 5 6 8% 6% 14 13 13 14 13 11 11 12 9 1 11 11 8 1 1 9 4% 2% 46 49 47 45 % 1995 1997 1998 1999 Germany France Netherland Hong Kong Japan Canada Others Some 14% of world egg imports are imported annually to Japan, Hong Kong (12%), Netherlands (11%), France (9%) and Canada (6%). 9

The biggest exporter of eggs and egg products is the Netherlands, approximately 45% of egg exports come from this country. Egg exporting countries (including egg products, excluding hatching eggs) 1% 8% 6% 6 7 9 9 7 8 11 8 8 13 12 7 16 15 15 14 4% 48 43 45 46 2% % 8 9 7 9 3 6 5 6 1995 1997 1998 1999 China France Netherland US Belgium Germany Others In fact, the egg external market is being concentrated into fewer hands, mainly western European countries. Outside the EU there are only two major buyers - Japan for egg products and Hong Kong for shell eggs; and the latter market will be taken by China. 1 8 6 4 2 Export of eggs, liquid and dry eggs thousand metric tons 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Eggs Liquid,Dried Eggs i n Th e S h e l l 1998 1999 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 1 3 15 81 199 imports Trade in liquid egg products 2 1 4 7 18 73 6 13 7 5 1 2 15 13 8 84 81 8 1995 1998 199 exports 1995 1998 Europe Asia N/C-America Overing The export of liquid and dry eggs represent only 15% of total egg exports. European countries are both the biggest exporters and importers of liquid egg products. Some Points to Note: 1. Domestic margins are everywhere depressed. 2. The market is being concentrated into fewer hands. 1 3 5

3. For Western Europe, there are regulatory problems, which could cost 5.7 billion Euros up to 212 to remove cages. 4. There is also the view that operations may be moved out of high cost areas to other locations to save costs and avoid regulations. 5. The world trade in shell eggs is very small indeed, due to the nature of the product; many shell eggs are dumped in order to raise domestic prices. If 1% of eggs are exported, domestic prices could rise by as much as 5%. 6. Outside the EU there are only to major buyers: Japan for egg products and Hong Kong for shell eggs; the latter market will shortly be taken by China. In summary, the outlook for the year 215 is for a world egg market with considerable exportable surplus production, dominated by USA, Europe, China, followed with some distance by Thailand, Malaysia and maybe Turkey which will have export egg surplus. Sub Saharan Africa could be a net exporter of eggs depending on events in Nigeria but Latin America is forecast to be a net egg importer. South Africa could potentially be an exporter of eggs in 15 to 3 years time. 4. Egg supply and consumption Forecasts made for developing countries in the past, have proved far too conservative. In terms of total egg production in developing countries in the year 2, output exceeded 35 million MT, mainly because of the rapid expansion of China s industry. Egg output in China was roughly equivalent to the same figure for the total world output just a decade earlier. Translated into consumption, the developed countries are consuming 227 eggs per caput per year, while the poorer developing countries are at about half this level, i.e. 118 eggs per caput per year. The world per caput level is 142 eggs per caput per year, or 2 percent more than at the beginning of the decade (cf. poultry). There are only 3 countries in the world where egg consumption is rising; in the others it is either stable or falling. Most notably it continues to rise in China; in North Africa, in Egypt it is stable and still rising in Libya; in South America, it is rising again in Mexico and Colombia, but falling in Brazil. Consumption growth was evident in the relatively strong performing economies of Turkey and India, but stable in Saudi Arabia, after peaking five years ago. The largest consumers of eggs in 1998 were: Japan, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Brunei Darussalam, Slovakia, Denmark and France. The lowest level of egg consumption was recorded in: Djibouti, Chad, Guyana, Tajikistan, the Central African Republic, Burundi, Haiti, Rwanda, Somalia, Angola and 11

Mongolia. Seven of the lowest ten countries are in Africa. Table 8: Regional supply of eggs (kg/person/year) World Africa Asia Europe North & Central Oceania America 1989 6.3 2. 4.4 13. 11.9 8.3 6.7 199 6.4 2.1 4.6 12.8 11.7 8.3 6.6 1991 6.5 2.1 5. 12.6 11.9 7.5 6.9 1992 6.5 2.1 5.3 12.9 11.9 6.6 6.7 1993 6.7 2.1 5.7 12.4 11.9 7.4 6.6 1994 7.2 2.1 6.5 12.3 12. 7.5 6.8 1995 7.4 2.1 6.9 12. 11.8 6.3 7. 1996 7.8 2. 7.7 11.9 11.8 7.3 6.7 1997 7.7 1.9 7.5 12. 12.1 7.5 6.7 1998 7.8 2.1 7.7 12.1 12.5 7.5 6.6 South America Egg supply in 1998 Highest level of egg supply Lowest level of egg supply Kg/year/per son Kg/year/pe rson Japan 19.4 Djibouti.5 Czech 18.2 Chad.5 Republic Netherlands 18.1 Guyana.5 Brunei 17.2 Tajikistan.4 Darussalam Slovakia 17.1 Central.4 African Republic Denmark 15.6 Burundi.4 France 15.6 Haiti.4 Malta 15.1 Rwanda.3 Belize 15.1 Somalia.3 Hungary 15. Angola.3 Belarus 14.9 Mongolia.1 Recent (1999) data confirms the reversal continues: Brazil and Germany are down; USA, France, China and India are up, Russia is flat. 12

Consumption growth is evident in the strong performing economies of Turkey and India but declining in Saudi Arabia. The consumption decline in Oceania seems to have been reversed. It has decreased in North America. Table 6: Annual growth rate of egg consumption during 1993 to 1998 Annual growth rate World 4.26 Developed.16 countries Africa 6.27 Asia -.92 Europe -.29 North&Central 1.67 America Oceania 1.51 Developing 7.46 countries Africa 1.74 Asia 9.1 North&Central 2.55 America Oceania 3.33 South America 1.47 FAO predicts little growth in demand for eggs during the next few years in developed countries. Some of this has to do with the fact that industry is unwilling to promote itself and universally less than 1% of sales is spent on promotion. The U.S. spends just.4% of the value of its sales on promotion - next to nothing. In many of these countries one can see negative income elasticities for eggs. In addition to that, food saturation and general over-consumption will change consumption patterns. According to FAO, growth may be less than 1 percent (a low.1% p.a.) during the period between now and the year 215). The real growth in demand for table eggs will occur in developing countries driven by economic factors such as income growth and population growth. 13

Poultry meat production, trade and supply 1. Poultry meat production Turning to the more vibrant poultry meat sector, which, according to FAO classifications, includes chicken, turkey, goose meat and other meats such as fowl and pigeon, it is important to remark that between 1961 and 2 this agricultural sector recorded a spectacular evolution. Total world poultry meat production reached 66 million tons in 2, more than 7 times the 1961 level. Consumption, or rather supply, in 2 was about 1.8 kgs. per caput per year. With the presence in Europe in 2 of foot and mouth disease and BSE (mad cow disease), consumption of poultry is expected to rise. There is, however, real public concern for all types of meat and the market may not be as strong as some expect. The attitude of consumers may be a more important factor than disease. The supplies that are reaching the market to meet expected demand may push prices down and put pressure on the industry. Additional production is easily achieved: supply is very elastic and both Brazilian and Thai suppliers export to Europe to meet demand. In economic theory, this is like a hog cycle, with growth in demand resulting in decrease in prices. In the year 2, poultry meat quantities produced by developing countries was about 16 times more than their poultry meat production in 1961. Trend of annual poultrymeat production, 1961-2 4 35 ' metric tons 3 25 2 15 1 5 1961 1964 1967 197 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2 Developed Countries Developing Countries On the other hand, developed countries increased their production about 5 fold. The evolution of poultry meat production is strongly correlated with the trend of chicken meat production; turkey, duck, goose meat and other kinds of poultry meat represent only about 15% of total poultry meat production. 14

Graph 11. World Chickenmeat and Poultrymeat Output 7 - million metric tons 6 5 4 3 2 1 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 Chicken Meat Poultry Meat About 86% of poultry meat is chicken meat and this percentage has been more or less unchanged during the last 4 years, so the other poultry sectors are doing well, too. Last year, chicken meat output amounted to about 56.6 million MT. The United States of America, the European Union and China are, and will continue to be, the world s leading producers, accounting for more than half (56%) of the total world production. Total poultry meat production 2 metric tons Chicken meat 56 6 Duck meat 2 768 Goose meat 1 98 Turkey meat 4 745 Total poultry meat 66 39 Unlike egg production, developed countries dominated poultry meat production, up to 1996. Starting with 1997, poultry meat production of developing countries exceeded poultry meat quantities produced by developed countries. 15

Graph 12. W orld Chick enmeat Output million metric tons 6 5 4 3 2 1 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 Developed Countries Total World In the year 2, developing countries produced 3 million MT more than developed countries. The trend of total poultry meat production was influenced by consumer behaviour, which has shown a very clear preference for poultry over other meats. Taking into account the period 1993-2, the share of poultry meat in total world meat production increased by 4.4%. For example, in North America the share of poultry meat production has increased during the decade from 37% to 42%. Given the strong world growth of poultry meat production, its share of the value of production of both poultry meat and eggs rose from 37% in 1961 to 53% in 1991. The value of all poultry meat production surpassed the value of egg production for the first time in 1984. Poultry meat now accounts for about 73% of the total of poultry and eggs: poultry has doubled in value relative to the base of poultry and eggs. Throughout the 199s, the fastest growth has been in the Far East and the Near East regions. In the Far East, egg production expanded 9.2% during the 199s, while poultry meat production grew about 9.4% p.a. In the Near East, the respective growth rates were equal to about 5% for both eggs and poultry. In other words, these two regions had simultaneous growth rates of the two industries. In many countries, however, investors have preferred to put funds into poultry rather than eggs. This has occurred mainly in developed countries. Of the developing countries, bot China and India are the exceptions in that their egg markets have been growing rapidly. 16

During the past decade, egg production growth was nil in Europe, and 2.4% in North America and Oceania. On the other hand, poultry meat production grew at a positive but slow 1.4% p.a. in Europe and an impressive 4-5% in North America and Oceania. N.B.: Eggs are a single homogeneous commodity whereas poultry is branded: the two face very different elasticities of demand and cross elasticities. Poultry meat production as a percentage, in 1993 and 2 Poultry meat production Metric tones Percentage of total meat production 1993 2 1993 2 TOTAL World 19254481 231996181 24.9 28.5 Developed 1859121 1497846 26.3 3.2 countries Africa 1324771 1323756 29. 34.1 Asia 61477 5149 28.8 3.2 Europe 54898281 51934468 19.3 22. North &Central 3434742 41633613 38.8 42.2 America Oceania 4585 4946533 12. 14. Developing 9119536 12717721 23.5 27. countries Africa 762244 929999 21.7 24.1 Asia 6658835 87112941 2.6 22.9 North &Central 4762717 6269144 35.9 45. America Oceania 13868 119611 13. 13.7 South America 1847536 2448626 3.7 38.2 By regions, the highest share of poultry meat production (45%) was recorded in the developing countries from Central America. Below this world average share are Oceania, Europe and the developing countries from Asia. In the last decade the biggest poultry meat quantity was produced in 1995, when the annul growth was more than 3.8 million MT. For 2 the estimation figures show an annual growth of total world poultry meat production by only 1.4 million MT. 17

' metric tons 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Graph 15. Annual Growth in World Poultrymeat Output 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 Between 1998 and 2, poultry meat production increased in all regions with the exception of Europe where the trend was negative (-77 MT). In Latin America and the Caribbean, North America and the Far East, poultry meat production increased by more than 4.3 million MT. USSR, Former Area of Oceania North America Near East Latin Amer & Caribbean Europe Africa Far East Graph 16. Regional growth in poultry meat production 1998-2 -2 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 ' metric tons An important contribution to the total world growth of poultry meat production was given by: China, Philippines, Indonesia, Mexico, Peru, Brazil, Myanmar, Vietnam and Dominican Republic. Five out of nine are Asian economies. 18

Dominican Republic Countries Recording Fast Percentage Growth of Poultry Production, 1998-2 China P hilippines Indones ia Mexico Peru Brazil Myanmar Viet Nam 25 5 75 1 125 15 175 % In the year 2, 55% of poultry meat output of developed countries was produced in North America; Western European countries contributed with 27%. The majority of poultry meat production of developing countries (94% in 2) was produced in countries from Asia (59%) and Latin America and the Caribbean (35%). USSR, Former Area of 4% Oceania 2% Poultry meat production in developed countries, in 2 Western Africa Asia Europe 1% 5% 27% Eastern Europe 6% Latin Amer & Caribbean 35% Poultry meat production in developing countries, in 2 Oceania % North America % Asia 59% North America 55% Africa 6% 19

2. Poultry meat imports and exports The total world poultry meat trade recorded more or less the same trend as production. The exports of poultry meat increased during the last decade by 35%, of which 34% was chicken meat. Graph 18. Chickenmeat Exports ' m etric tons 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Chicken M eat Poultry M eat During the 199s, world chicken meat trade grew very strongly, at 1%. In the year 1999 the total poultry meat exports accounted for 8 million MT of which chicken meat alone represented more then 6 million MT. There are, however, about 1¼ million MT of product which is double counted trade with Hong Kong is shipped on to China and the former USSR countries ship their products on to Russia. The external poultry meat market is concentrated in few hands; in 1999, the quantities exported by the leading exporters (United States of America, France, Brazil, Hong Kong, Netherlands, China, Thailand, Belgium and the United Kingdom) represented 91% of total poultry meat exports. 2

Graph 19. Leading Exporters of Fresh/Frozen Poultrymeat in 1999 Denm ark Germany United Kingdom Be lg iu m -Lu xe m b ou rg Thailand Ch in a, Ma in la n d Ne th e rla n d s China, Hon g Kong S AR Brazil France United States of America Total 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ' metric tons The future will likely see a continuation of growth in production of poultry meat and its trade dominated, with few exceptions, by the United States of America, but production growth will be stronger in developed countries, where there will be market gains for eggs as consumption of the latter stagnates. There is, however, a limit to how much meat humans can consume so the U.S.A. has to export its product; in addition, the U.S. poultry industry faces strong internal competition from the pork industry, although not so much from beef. Graph 2. Leading Importers of Fresh/Frozen Poultrymeat in 1999 Belgium-Luxembourg France Russian Federation Netherlands Mexico Saudi Arabia United Kingdom Germany Japan China, Mainland China, Hong Kong SAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 ' metric tons In 1999, the leading importers of fresh and frozen poultry meat were: Hong Kong, China, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Netherlands, Russian Federation and France. 21

3. Poultry meat supply and consumption During 1989-1998, poultry meat consumption increased by 2.8 kg/person/year; in 1998 the total world average was 1.1 kg/person. The regional distribution of poultry meat consumption shows that the biggest consumers are North and Central America. In 1998, each person in these countries consumed 35.1 kg. Regional supply of poultry meat (kg/person/year) World Africa Asia Europ e North & Central America Oceani a South America 1989 7.3 3.2 3.2 15.1 27.5 18.6 11. 199 7.6 3.2 3.3 15.9 29. 19.1 11.8 1991 7.9 3.2 3.7 15.8 3.3 19.1 13.3 1992 8.2 3.3 4. 14.4 31.2 2.3 14.6 1993 8.5 3.2 4.4 14.1 32. 2.8 15.4 1994 8.8 3.3 4.7 14.7 32.7 21.3 16.7 1995 9.4 3.5 5.2 15. 32.8 21.5 19.3 1996 9.4 3.5 5.3 15.2 33.5 21.7 18.6 1997 9.9 3.7 5.7 15.5 34.4 22. 2.4 1998 1.1 3.7 5.9 15.7 35.1 23.9 2. The lowest levels of poultry meat supply have been constantly recorded in Africa (3.7 kg/person in 1998) and Asia (5.9 kg/person in 1998). Per caput poultry meat consumption is expected to rise in all regions, except perhaps slightly in the U.S. World poultry meat production will exceed 94 million MT by 215 against 66 million MT today. China will be the source of ⅓ of the increase between now and 215. Forecast of increasing of poultry meat production -thousand metric tons - Production Estimated Average 1995/97 Forecast 215 growth production World 5616. 93672.4 37566.4 All developing 27247.1 53416.7 26169.6 sub-saharan 95.2 2145.7 124.5 Africa Latin America 8836.9 15624.6 6787.7 Near East/North 2875.7 5991.4 3115.7 22

Africa East Asia 13588. 25832.9 12244.9 South Asia 141.3 3822.1 278.8 Developed countries 28858.9 4256.4 11397.5 The next 15 years will likely see a continuation of growth in production and trade of poultry meat. The increase in production will continue to be broadly based across both developed and developing countries but with large increases in the developing world. In developed countries, poultry meat production will continue to increase. Major growth will be in USA (+ 5 million MT), Brazil (+1.3 million MT), India (1.6 million MT), Mexico (+.7 million MT) and Iran (.7 million MT) respectively, Indonesia (1.3 million MT) and Turkey (.5 million MT). Production growth is expected to be strong in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria and Guatemala. The big limitation on production growth will be feed prices. Traditional exporters will continue supplying at current levels but it can count on Brazil (exports have doubled in the past 5 years and they will likely rise another 5% in the 14 years ahead) and USA becoming more significant. So therefore the leading poultry exporters in 215 will be both USA and Brazil (Latin America), followed by Europe (mostly intra-european trade), Thailand, Malaysia, Chile and India. Eastern Europe will become a strong exporter also with rapid export growth as some West Europe operations are moved East. South Africa will be viewed as an interesting market for the USA, Brazil and perhaps Thailand. Countries which demonstrate potential (import markets) are mostly scattered throughout the developing world; they include Chile, Peru, Mexico, Pakistan, Iran, Indonesia, Philippines, Nigeria, Algeria and countries in Eastern Europe, as well as Japan. Japanese imports could double in the next 14 years. China and Thailand will probably cater to the Japanese market. CONCLUSION In the period 2-15 the demand for eggs in the world is expected to grow by 1.9 percent with developing countries growth at 2.6 percent. In juxtaposition to this, the corresponding figures for the world poultry industry is 2.6 % p.a. and 3.5 % p.a. for developing countries, respectively It should be remembered that the growth in egg and meat production all depends on the availability and price of feed. For years growing quantities of the world s food 23

supplies are processed into feed. About half of all cereals now are being fed to animals. This growth in feedstuffs for animals has shown up in large increases in imports into developing countries. It is one of the main factors behind the rapid increase in developing countries net cereal imports. The general mechanism which drives the growth of the cereal feed sector can be simply stated: growth of incomes increases demand for livestock products; the latter causes production to rise, with the bulk of the additional production in most countries coming from the pig and poultry sectors. Unlike the case of ruminant animals sector in developing countries, substantial increases in pig and poultry depend heavily on the expansion of grain-fed production systems. [This general pattern would translate into the use of cereals as feed growing faster than the volume of livestock output. Moreover this pattern is less pronounced or entirely absent in those countries with relatively high shares of cattle/sheep sector in the total growth of the livestock production and ample grassland and other non-grain feed resources.] Feed is going to be the key consideration in future; Canada, India and Thailand are well placed in this regard. Iran and other Middle East countries, for example, is not well placed. In addition to that, food saturation and general over consumption will change consumption patterns. Lastly, there s a move in the industry away from the marketing or exporting of whole birds to exporting portions and this will, over time, move into an even more sophisticated industry where the cooked product is exported. Already China is exporting cooked foods and meats to busy Japanese households. (Chicken kebabs could be traded rather than birds). This gives hope to developed countries, which have the technology - that by moving into the sophisticated end of the market they can export their poultry meat; this, of course, will have direct benefit to the returns on the home market 24

Filename: Egg Poultry Production.doc Directory: C:\Documents and Settings\tempelman\Local Settings\Temporary Internet Files\OLK258 Template: C:\Documents and Settings\tempelman\Application Data\Microsoft\Templates\Normal.dot Title: l Dr Ted Gillin, economist with the Food & Agdculture Organisation of the United Nations presents a detailed look at how the world's egg and poultrymeat industries have grown during the 198's along with predictions for the year 2 Subject: Author: FAO Keywords: Comments: Creation Date: 1/1/21 4:38 PM Change Number: 4 Last Saved On: 8/6/23 11:35 AM Last Saved By: Tempelman, Kim-Anh Total Editing Time: 7 Minutes Last Printed On: 8/6/23 11:36 AM As of Last Complete Printing Number of Pages: 24 Number of Words: 4,868 (approx.) Number of Characters: 24,589 (approx.)