Page 1 Circulatin: NFU Hrticulture and Ptates Bard Date: 06/11/16 Ref: Labur Prviders Survey 2016 Q1-Q3 Cntact: Amy Gray Tel: 02476 858 628 Labur Prviders Survey 2016 A seasnal labur mnitring tl fr Hrticulture and Ptates Intrductin Fllwing the ablitin f SAWS in December 2013, the NFU established a labur mnitring tl t gather evidence n the supply and demand f seasnal wrkers in the hrticulture and ptates sectr. The riginal survey was designed t cllect data thrughut the peak summer grwing seasn. Hwever, fllwing cnsultatin with the labur prviders, it was agreed that, frm January 2016, the survey wuld be changed t cllect year-rund data and prvide quarterly reprts. The questins were als mdified t better reflect the end requirements fr effective lbbying and generate a better respnse rate. A panel f respndents have been invited t input recruitment data n a mnthly basis. The survey is cmpleted by retrspectively at the end f each quarter t prvide data n a mnth-by-mnth basis. The data will frm an evidence base fr assessing whether r nt the mnthly supply f seasnal labur is sufficient t meet the needs f the sectrs that are being supplied. The data als allws the NFU t establish trends and spt any shrtfalls n the hrizn befre they have an impact n the supply chain. This tl will als enable us t build a natinal picture f the level f turnver, cuntry f rigin f verseas wrkers and sectrs supplied. Cntents Key results fr January 2016... 1 Key results fr February 2016... 4 Key results fr March 2016... 5 Key results fr Q1 2016... 6 Key results fr April 2016... 7 Key results fr May 2016... 8 Key results fr June 2016... 9 Key results fr Q2 2016... 10 Key results fr July 2016... 11 Key results fr August 2016... 12 Key results fr September 2016... 13 Key results fr Q3 2016... 14 Trend analysis frm Q1 t Q3 2016... 16 Key A2 cuntries = Bulgaria and Rmania. A8 cuntries = Czech Republic, Estnia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Pland, Slvakia, Slvenia.
Page 2 Executive Summary January t September 2016 The results frm the first three quarters f the NFU Labur Prviders Survey 2016 shw a dramatic change in labur availability within the space f 9 mnths and clearly shw the deteriratin in the ability t btain and maintain EU labur in the hrticulture sectr. Over the curse f 2016 we have mved frm a landscape where, in quarter 1 (Q1), 100% f prviders reprted being able t recruit the right numbers f wrkers. But in quarter 2 (Q2), 13% f respndents were unable t meet the demands f the sectrs they were supplying, rising t 47% in quarter 3 (Q3). Indeed, fcussing n just August and September 2016, 60% f respndents were unable t meet the labur demands f the sectrs that they were supplying. Labur prviders became increasingly unable t meet their recruitment targets in the cuntries frm which they were surcing seasnal labur ver the curse f the year. The survey fund that in Q1, there was ver-recruitment f 13%, but in Q2 and Q3 labur prviders were 4.7% belw target in each quarter. Cnsidering that recruitment targets are based n bth the predicted labur requirements in the UK and past experience f what levels f recruitment are feasible at different times f year, the fact that labur prviders were unable t meet their targets is unlikely t be due t unrealistic expectatins f the recruiters: rather that there was a shrtage f uptake. The number f returnees being recruited has drpped ver the curse f the year. In Q1, 69% f seasnal wrkers were returnees frm previus years. This fell t 29% in Q2 and t 10% in Q3. Furthermre, the percentage f recruited emplyees that did nt arrive rse frm 2% in Q1 t 8% in Q3. In additin, the number f emplyees that vluntarily left early rse frm 5% in Q1, t 16% in Q2 and t 27% in Q3. Therefre thse emplyed and remaining until the end f the cntract perid fell frm 92% in Q1 t 62% in Q3. These statistics emphasise the need fr substantial trial f a Seasnal Agricultural Permit Scheme fr nn-eu wrkers in the 2017 seasn. The Q4 survey will be circulated t labur prviders in January 2017.
Page 3 January 2016 Respndents t the survey cllectively recruited 2,310 seasnal wrkers n hrticultural farms during January 2016. This is 12.1% mre seasnal wrkers than the respndents had riginally intended t recruit. 1,591 (68.9%) f seasnal wrkers recruited were returnees frm previus seasns. The average turnver rate fr the ttal number f seasnal wrkers recruited fr January was 11.4%. 1.3% f the seasnal wrkers recruited did nt arrive. 8.6% f the seasnal wrkers recruited vluntarily left emplyment early. 1.4% f the seasnal wrkers recruited were dismissed frm their jbs. 76.8% f the seasnal labur frce recruited fr January was surced frm A2 cuntries, with 21.7% cming frm A8 cuntries and 1.5% frm the UK. 83.3% f respndents said that supply f seasnal wrkers was sufficient t meet demand and 16.7% saying that supply was tightening. 100% f respndents were able t meet the demands f the sectrs that they were supplying.
Page 4 February 2016 Respndents t the survey cllectively recruited 2,977 seasnal wrkers n hrticultural farms during February 2016. This is 15.3% mre seasnal wrkers than the respndents had riginally intended t recruit. 1,829 (61.4%) f seasnal wrkers recruited were returnees frm previus seasns. The average turnver rate fr the ttal number f seasnal wrkers recruited fr February was 9.2%. 2.5% f the seasnal wrkers recruited did nt arrive. 4.9% f the seasnal wrkers recruited vluntarily left emplyment early. 1.8% f the seasnal wrkers recruited were dismissed frm their jbs. 64.3% f the seasnal labur frce recruited fr February was surced frm A2 cuntries and with 35.7% cming frm A8 cuntries. 66.7% f respndents said that supply f seasnal wrkers was sufficient t meet demand and 33.3% saying that supply was tightening. 100% f respndents were able t meet the demands f the sectrs that they were supplying.
Page 5 March 2016 Respndents t the survey cllectively recruited 4,193 seasnal wrkers n hrticultural farms during March 2016. This is 13.5% mre seasnal wrkers than the respndents had riginally intended t recruit. 3,096 (73.8%) f seasnal wrkers recruited were returnees frm previus seasns. The average turnver rate fr the ttal number f seasnal wrkers recruited fr March was 5.2%. 1.3% f the seasnal wrkers recruited did nt arrive. 2.6% f the seasnal wrkers recruited vluntarily left emplyment early. 1.3% f the seasnal wrkers recruited were dismissed frm their jbs. 64.9% f the seasnal labur frce recruited fr March was surced frm A2 cuntries, with 33.5% cming frm A8 cuntries and 1.6% frm the UK. 83.3% f respndents said that supply f seasnal wrkers was sufficient t meet demand and 16.7% saying that supply was tightening. 100% f respndents were able t meet the demands f the sectrs that they were supplying.
Page 6 Key results fr Q1 2016 Respndents t the survey cllectively recruited 9,480 seasnal wrkers n hrticultural farms during Q1 2016. This is 13.7% mre seasnal wrkers than the respndents had riginally intended t recruit. 6,516 (68.7%) f seasnal wrkers recruited were returnees frm previus seasns. The average turnver rate fr the ttal number f seasnal wrkers recruited fr Q1 was 8%. 1.7% f the seasnal wrkers recruited did nt arrive. 4.8% f the seasnal wrkers recruited vluntarily left emplyment early. 1.5% f the seasnal wrkers recruited were dismissed frm their jbs. 67.6% f the seasnal labur frce recruited fr Q1 was surced frm A2 cuntries, with 31.3% cming frm A8 cuntries and 1.1% frm the UK. 77.8% f respndents said that supply f seasnal wrkers was sufficient t meet demand and 22.2% saying that supply was tightening. 100% f respndents were able t meet the needs f the sectrs that they were supplying. The fllwing cmments have been made by labur prviders in relatin t seasnal labur supply (Quarter 1):- The beginning f ur intake fllwing a successful marketing and recruitment campaign ver the winter. Based n previus years we have seen a large increase in the numbers f peple leaving befre the end f their cntract, we have in the mst part been able t replace them but this has bviusly resulted in greater administratin pressure in surcing new wrkers in shrt time frames. We struggled t supply wrkers with a very gd/gd level r written and spken English. The typical applicant nw is frm mre rural areas with a lwer level f educatin. Overseas recruitment in the A2 cuntries is buyant, the lcal branches in the UK are struggling t meet demand.
Page 7 April 2016 Respndents t the survey cllectively recruited 2,062 seasnal wrkers n hrticultural farms during April 2016. This is 3.1% fewer seasnal wrkers than the respndents had riginally intended t recruit. 601 (29.1%) f seasnal wrkers recruited were returnees frm previus seasns. The average turnver rate fr the ttal number f seasnal wrkers recruited fr April was 15.9%. 4.5% f the seasnal wrkers recruited did nt arrive. 11% f the seasnal wrkers recruited vluntarily left emplyment early. 0.4% f the seasnal wrkers recruited were dismissed frm their jbs. 79.4% f the seasnal labur frce recruited fr April was surced frm A2 cuntries, with 14.1% cming frm A8 cuntries, 6.1% frm the UK and 0.4% f unknwn rigin. 40% f respndents said that supply f seasnal wrkers was sufficient t meet demand and 60% said that supply was tightening.
Page 8 May 2016 Respndents t the survey cllectively recruited 3,562 seasnal wrkers n hrticultural farms during May 2016. This is 3.8% fewer seasnal wrkers than the respndents had riginally intended t recruit. 952 (26.7%) f seasnal wrkers recruited were returnees frm previus seasns. The average turnver rate fr the ttal number f seasnal wrkers recruited fr May was 29.4%. 7.4% f the seasnal wrkers recruited did nt arrive. 20.5% f the seasnal wrkers recruited vluntarily left emplyment early. 1.5% f the seasnal wrkers recruited were dismissed frm their jbs. 89.1% f the seasnal labur frce recruited fr May was surced frm A2 cuntries, with 14.1% cming frm A8 cuntries, 0.4% frm the UK, 0.1% frm ther cuntries (nt UK, A2 r A8) and 0.4% f unknwn rigin. 40% f respndents said that supply f seasnal wrkers was sufficient t meet demand and 40% said that supply was tightening. Hwever, 20% f respndents said that supply f seasnal labur was nt sufficient t meet the demands f the sectrs that they were supplying.
Page 9 June 2016 Respndents t the survey cllectively recruited 3,070 seasnal wrkers n hrticultural farms during June 2016. This is 6.7% fewer seasnal wrkers than the respndents had riginally intended t recruit. 1,007 (32.8%) f seasnal wrkers recruited were returnees frm previus seasns. The average turnver rate fr the ttal number f seasnal wrkers recruited fr June was 20.7%. 5.1% f the seasnal wrkers recruited did nt arrive. 14% f the seasnal wrkers recruited vluntarily left emplyment early. 1.3% f the seasnal wrkers recruited were dismissed frm their jbs. 74% f the seasnal labur frce recruited fr June was surced frm A2 cuntries, with 23.9% cming frm A8 cuntries, 1.8% frm the UK, and 0.3% f unknwn rigin. 40% f respndents said that supply f seasnal wrkers was sufficient t meet demand and 40% said that supply was tightening. Hwever, 20% f respndents said that supply f seasnal labur was nt sufficient t meet the demands f the sectrs that they were supplying.
Page 10 Key results fr Q2 2016 Respndents t the survey cllectively recruited 8,694 seasnal wrkers n hrticultural farms during Q2 2016. This is 4.7% fewer seasnal wrkers than the respndents had riginally intended t recruit. 2,560 (29.4%) f seasnal wrkers recruited were returnees frm previus seasns. The average turnver rate fr the ttal number f seasnal wrkers recruited fr Q2 was 23.1%. 5.9% f the seasnal wrkers recruited did nt arrive. 15.9% f the seasnal wrkers recruited vluntarily left emplyment early. 1.3% f the seasnal wrkers recruited were dismissed frm their jbs. 81.5% f the seasnal labur frce recruited fr Q2 was surced frm A2 cuntries, with 15.9% cming frm A8 cuntries, 2.2% frm the UK and 0.3% f unknwn rigin. 40% f respndents said that supply f seasnal wrkers was sufficient t meet demand and 46.7% said that supply was tightening. Hwever, 13.3% f respndents said that supply was nt sufficient t meet demand. 33.3% f labur prviders supplying seasnal wrkers t the field vegetables/brassicas sectr culd nt meet the needs f this sectr. 40% f labur prviders supplying seasnal wrkers t the sft fruit sectr culd nt meet the needs f this sectr. The fllwing cmments have been made by labur prviders in relatin t seasnal labur supply (Quarter 2):- We have struggled with large numbers f ur wrk frce leaving befre their end f their cntract which meant we then had t very quickly try and find replacements. I feel like a number f participants are just using us as a base until they find alternative accmmdatin and wrk that is nt s physically demanding. We struggled t supply wrkers with a very gd/gd level r written and spken English. The typical applicant nw is frm mre rural areas with a lwer level f educatin. Overall we were able t meet the demand frm ur grwers but feedback frm the cuntries we recruit frm is that finding mtivated wrkers is getting mre difficult.. Despite wrking with JCP and prmting jbs in UK lcal recruitment was minimal and n UK natinals.
Page 11 July 2016 Respndents t the survey cllectively recruited 1,139 seasnal wrkers n hrticultural farms during July 2016. This is 0.1% mre seasnal wrkers than the respndents had riginally intended t recruit. 161 (14.1%) f seasnal wrkers recruited were returnees frm previus seasns. The average turnver rate fr the ttal number f seasnal wrkers recruited fr July was 57.9%. 7.7% f the seasnal wrkers recruited did nt arrive. 42.9% f the seasnal wrkers recruited vluntarily left emplyment early. 3.3% f the seasnal wrkers recruited were dismissed frm their jbs. 89% f the seasnal labur frce recruited fr July was surced frm A2 cuntries, with 11% cming frm A8 cuntries. 60% f respndents said that supply f seasnal wrkers was sufficient t meet demand and 20% said that supply was tightening. Hwever, 20% f respndents said that supply f seasnal labur was nt sufficient t meet demand.
Page 12 August 2016 Respndents t the survey cllectively recruited 1,277 seasnal wrkers n hrticultural farms during August 2016. This is 1.2% fewer seasnal wrkers than the respndents had riginally intended t recruit. 109 (8.5%) f seasnal wrkers recruited were returnees frm previus seasns. The average turnver rate fr the ttal number f seasnal wrkers recruited fr August was 38%. 10.6% f the seasnal wrkers recruited did nt arrive. 26.4% f the seasnal wrkers recruited vluntarily left emplyment early. 1% f the seasnal wrkers recruited were dismissed frm their jbs. 81.8% f the seasnal labur frce recruited fr August was surced frm A2 cuntries, with 17.2% cming frm A8 cuntries and 1% cming frm ther cuntries (nt UK, A2 r A8). There were n respndents (0%) that said that supply f seasnal wrkers was sufficient t meet demand whilst 40% said that supply was tightening. Hwever, 60% f respndents said that supply f seasnal labur was nt sufficient t meet the demands f the sectrs that they were supplying.
Page 13 September 2016 Respndents t the survey cllectively recruited 1,466 seasnal wrkers n hrticultural farms during September 2016. This is 10.8% fewer seasnal wrkers than the respndents had riginally intended t recruit. 105 (7.2%) f seasnal wrkers recruited were returnees frm previus seasns. The average turnver rate fr the ttal number f seasnal wrkers recruited fr September was 22.2%. 4.9% f the seasnal wrkers recruited did nt arrive. 16.2% f the seasnal wrkers recruited vluntarily left emplyment early. 1.2% f the seasnal wrkers recruited were dismissed frm their jbs. 82.6% f the seasnal labur frce recruited fr September was surced frm A2 cuntries, with 16.8% cming frm A8 cuntries, and 0.5% frm ther cuntries (nt UK, A2 r A8). There were n respndents (0%) that said that supply f seasnal wrkers was sufficient t meet demand whilst 40% said that supply was tightening. Hwever, 60% f respndents said that supply f seasnal labur was nt sufficient t meet the demands f the sectrs that they were supplying.
Page 14 Key results fr Q3 2016 Respndents t the survey cllectively recruited 3,882 seasnal wrkers n hrticultural farms during Q3 2016. This is 4.7% fewer seasnal wrkers than the respndents had riginally intended t recruit. 375 (9.7%) f seasnal wrkers recruited were returnees frm previus seasns. The average turnver rate fr the ttal number f seasnal wrkers recruited fr Q3 was 37.9%. 7.6% f the seasnal wrkers recruited did nt arrive. 27.4% f the seasnal wrkers recruited vluntarily left emplyment early. 1.8% f the seasnal wrkers recruited were dismissed frm their jbs. 84.2% f the seasnal labur frce recruited fr Q3 was surced frm A2 cuntries, with 15.2% cming frm A8 cuntries and 0.5% frm ther cuntries (nt UK, A2 r A8). 20% f respndents said that supply f seasnal wrkers was sufficient t meet demand and 33.3% said that supply was tightening. Hwever, 46.7% f respndents said that supply was nt sufficient t meet demand. 33.3% f labur prviders supplying seasnal wrkers t the field vegetables/brassicas sectr culd nt meet the needs f this sectr. 33.3% f labur prviders supplying seasnal wrkers t the utdr salads sectr culd nt meet the needs f this sectr. 33.3% f labur prviders supplying seasnal wrkers t the ptates sectr culd nt meet the needs f this sectr. 50% f labur prviders supplying seasnal wrkers t the prtected salads sectr culd nt meet the needs f this sectr. 75% f labur prviders supplying seasnal wrkers t the sft fruit sectr culd nt meet the needs f this sectr. 50% f labur prviders supplying seasnal wrkers t the tp fruit sectr culd nt meet the needs f this sectr. The fllwing cmments have been made by labur prviders in relatin t seasnal labur supply (Quarter 3):- We had great difficulty in recruiting sufficient numbers and we als suffered greatly frm emplyees leaving after nly 2 r 3 weeks f emplyment which then left us trying t recruit replacements at very shrt ntice. This is the first year since 2008, just befre the SAWS wrk card allcatin was increased that we have failed t fill the seasnal labur requirements f sme f ur
Page 15 grwers due t a shrtage f labur. This has nly revealed itself since the result f the referendum. The media in Eurpe is reprting the utcme f the referendum quite negatively, including sme f the xenphbic attacks, and there is a feeling that wrkers will nt be made welcme cmpared t ther cuntries. This is affecting initial levels f interest. The value f the pund will inevitably have sme effect as ther cuntries start t lk mre financially attractive than they were befre cmpared t the UK. We struggled t supply wrkers with a very gd/gd level r written and spken English. The typical applicant nw is frm mre rural areas with a lwer level f educatin. The cst and availability f travel was extremely restrictive t supply and wrkers requested a minimum 3 weeks ntice t cnsider leaving existing jbs which made the peak urgent vacancies impssible t fill.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nv Dec % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nv Dec % Page 16 Trend analysis frm Q1 t Q3 2016 Recruitment targets There has been a declining trend in the ability f labur prviders t meet their recruitment targets between Q1 and Q3. Labur prviders were able t recruit 13.7% mre wrkers than riginally planned in Q1, but 4.7% fewer wrkers than riginally planned fr bth Q2 and Q3. 20 15 12.1 10 Recruitment target achievement (% recruitment based n what labur prviders wanted t recruit) 15.3 13.5 5 0 0.1-1.2-5 -10-15 -3.1-3.8-6.7-10.8-20 2016 % Returnees frm previus seasns The number f returnees frm previus seasns has decreased frm 6,516 in Q1 t 375 in Q3 (-85.9%) In Q1, 68.7% f recruited wrkers were returnees which fell t 29.4% in Q2 and 9.7% in Q3. % Returnees 80 68.9 60 61.4 73.8 40 29.1 26.7 32.8 20 14.1 8.5 7.2 0-20 -40 2016
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nv Dec % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nv Dec % Page 17 Turnver rates The percentage f recruited wrkers that did nt reach the end f their cntracted wrk perid (either because they did nt arrive t take up their rles in the UK, vluntarily left emplyment early r were dismissed) rse frm 8% in Q1 t 23.1% in Q2 and 37.9% in Q3. 70 60 % Turnver 57.9 50 40 30 20 11.4 10 9.2 5.2 15.9 29.4 20.7 38 22.2 0 2016 Nn-arrivals The percentage f recruited wrkers that did nt arrive in the UK t take up their psitins quadrupled frm 1.7% in Q1 t 5.9% in Q2 and 7.6% in Q3. 12 % Did nt arrive 10.6 10 8 7.4 7.7 6 4.5 5.1 4.9 4 2 1.3 2.5 1.3 0 2016
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nv Dec % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nv Dec % Page 18 Vluntarily left emplyment early The percentage f recruited wrkers that vluntarily left emplyment early increased nearly six-fld frm 4.8% in Q1 t 15.9% in Q2 and 27.4% in Q3. % Vluntarily left early 50 45 42.9 40 35 30 26.4 25 20 15 8.6 10 5 4.9 2.6 11 20.5 14 16.2 0 2016 Was dismissed befre reaching the end f their cntract The percentage f recruited wrkers that were dismissed befre reaching the end f their cntract changed very little, fluctuating frm 1.5% in Q1 t 1.3% in Q2 and 1.8% in Q3. 3.5 % Dismissed 3.3 3 2.5 2 1.4 1.5 1 0.5 1.8 1.3 0.4 1.5 1.3 1 1.2 0 2016
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nv Dec % Page 19 Cuntry f rigin The percentage f seasnal wrkers surced frm A2 cuntries in 2016 increased frm 67.6% in Q1 t 81.5% in Q2 and 84.2% in Q3. The percentage f seasnal wrkers surced frm A8 cuntries in 2016 decreased frm 31.3% in Q1 t 15.9% in Q2 and 15.2% in Q3. The percentage f seasnal wrkers surced frm the UK in 2016 fluctuated frm 1.1% in Q1 t 2.2% in Q2 and 0% in Q3. The percentage f seasnal wrkers surced frm ther cuntries (nt UK, A2 r A8) in 2016 was minimal, with 0% in Q1, 0% in Q2 and 0.5% in Q3. The percentage f seasnal wrkers surced whse cuntry f rigin was unknwn in 2016 was minimal, with 0% in Q1, 0.3% in Q2 and 0% in Q3. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % breakdwn f natinalities f labur surced 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.4 0.10.4 0.1 0.2 0 0 1 0 0.5 0 1.5 0 1.6 0.4 1.8 0 0 0 6.1 11 14.1 17.2 16.8 21.7 14.1 23.9 35.7 33.5 89.1 89 76.8 79.4 81.8 82.6 74 64.3 64.9 Unknwn natinality Other natinals UK natinals A8 natinals A2 natinals 0% 2016
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nv Dec % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nv Dec % Page 20 Did supply meet demand? The number f respndents saying that the supply f seasnal wrkers was sufficient t meet demand decreased frm 78% in Q1 t 40% in Q2 and 20% in Q3. 100 83.3 80 60 40 % labur prviders saying that supply f seasnal labur was sufficient t meet demand 66.7 83.3 40 40 40 60 20 0 0 0-20 -40 2016 The number f respndents saying that the supply f seasnal wrkers was tightening fluctuated frm 22% in Q1 t 47% in Q2 and 33% in Q3. % labur prviders saying that supply f seasnal labur was tightening 70 60 60 50 40 33.3 40 40 40 40 30 16.7 20 16.7 20 10 0 2016
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nv Dec % Page 21 The number f respndents saying that the supply f seasnal wrkers was nt sufficient t meet demand increased frm 0% in Q1 t 13% in Q2 and 47% in Q3. % labur prviders saying that supply f seasnal labur was nt sufficient t meet demand 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 0 0 0-10 -20 20 20 20 2016 60 60