AN INITIATIVE OF The Right Lamb Every Time Rob Davidson WAMMCO International Dave Pethick & Kelly Pearce Murdoch Uni & Sheep CRC EVENT PARTNERS: EVENT SUPPORTERS:
The Right Lamb Definition?? Store lamb 32 Trade wt Export wt Processor Consumer 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 Light Export (Middle East) Lamb Feeder (Store) Lamb: Under 18kg -1mm Export (U.S.) Foodservices Lamb: 28-32kg 6-2mm Export (U.S.) Retail Lamb Domestic Foodservices Lamb: 22-28kg 6-15mm Export (E.U.) Retail/ Foodservices Lamb: DomesticTrade Lamb 18-22kg 6-15mm 5 1 15 2 25 FS1 FS2 FS3 FS4 FS5
The Right Lamb Overview Grower confidence Current situation, and how did we get here? What s happening around the world? What to focus on?
Current situation WA drought - seasonal conditions improving Welcome season in east - rebuilding commenced A$ at record levels against US$ National sheep flock at 1-year low Unprecedented lamb and sheep prices Both domestic and export demand maintaining pace
After decade long drought, recovery in East The dry decade (2-29)
After decade long drought, recovery in East The dry decade (2-29) Recovery in 21
The national sheep flock 2 million head up 1.9% to 69 million head in 211 15 up 5% by 215 to 71 million head 1 5 19 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 2 21 31 March until 1999, 3 June from 2 Source: ABS
5 The WA sheep flock Down 15% to 12.4 million head in 211 4 3 2 1 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11f Source: ABS, MLA forecasts 31 March until 1999, 3 June from 2 f = forecast
Interstate transfer 12 1 No. of sheep 8 6 4 29-94,68 21-1,16,562 211-37,288 (up to 1st July) 2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Months
World flocks in decline Australia New Zealand US Argentina million head 2 flock million head 8 flock million head 6 flock millon head 6 flock 175 7 5 5 15 125 6 4 4 1 5 3 3 75 4 2 2 5 25 3 1 1 1885 191 1935 196 1985 21 2 196 1969 1978 1987 1996 25 191 1926 1954 1982 21 1961 197 1979 1988 1997 26 Source: ABS, USDA, FAO, Statistics NZ
Aust. sheep flock and lamb production million sheep and lambs ' tonnes cwt 2 lamb production sheep flock 15 5 4 3 1 2 5 1 Source: ABS 9 91 92 93 94 85 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Change in Australian flock structure breeding ewes lambs rams wethers 1% 12% wethers 3% wethers 8% 6% 4% 2% 47% ewes Ewe proportion of flock 5 6% % 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Source: ABARE, ABS, MLA Ewe & lamb proportion of the flock to continue rising
Lamb production ' tonnes cwt 6 production carcase weight 5 4 3 2 1 kg/head 25 23 21 19 17 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11f 13f 15f 15 Source: ABS, MLA forecasts Carcase weights firm = 21.6kg in 211 f = forecast
Domestic lamb consumption 3 25 2 15 1 5 ' tonnes cwt consumption retail price A /kg retail weight 15 12 9 6 3 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11f 13f 15f Source: ABS, ABARE, MLA forecasts f = forecast
2 15 1 5 Strong export growth exports (' tonnes swt) exports % production % of production 5 4 3 2 1 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11f 13f 15f Source: DAFF volumes, ABS values, MLA forecasts f = forecast
5 Lamb exports to the Middle East ' tonnes swt volume value A$ million 25 4 Up 14% in 211 to 41,9 tonnes (~2.1M lambs) 2 3 15 2 1 1 5 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11f Source: DAFF volumes, ABS values, MLA forecasts f = forecast
5 4 3 2 1 Lamb exports to the USA ' tonnes swt volume value Up 5% to 35,9 tonnes (~1.7M lambs) A$ million 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11f Source: DAFF volumes, ABS values, MLA forecasts f = forecast
What s needed grow & cut the waste More lambs - production improvement more lamb kg/ha Deliver what the customer wants hit specifications Demand & understand processor feedback Reduce defects Genetic improvement growth, muscling, lean meat yield
Grid specifications
Reduce defects
Reduce defects
Reduce defects
Lean meat yield Consumers don t want to buy fat and bone Increase LMY by decreasing fat and bone or increasing muscularity WAMMCO only plant in Australia to pay premium based on carcase LMY
LMY Carcase comp results Ave 2% drop in LMY for every increase in FS
Lean meat yield Fat score 2 Carcase Wt 23. $/kg $6. $/lamb $138 LMY 51.1% Lean tissue 11.75kg Outcome True value/kg $6.
Lean meat yield Fat score 2 Fat score 4 Carcase Wt 23. 23. $/kg $6. $6. $/lamb $138 $138 LMY 51.1% 47.2% Lean tissue 11.75kg 1.85kg Outcome 9g wastage (Fat & bone) True value/kg $6. $5.76
The power of Growth PWWT Merino Maternal Terminal 25 Hot Carcase Weight (kg) 24 23 22 21 2 19 18 17-5 5 1 15 2 PWWT ASBV
PEMD Eye of shortloin weight 7 Eye of Shortloin Weight (g) 6 5 4 3 2 1g PEMD Low PEMD High 1 1 15 2 25 3 35 4 Hot Standard Carcass Weight (kg)
PFAT Eye of shortloin weight 6 Eye of Shortloin Weight (g) 5 4 3 2 6g PFAT Low PFAT High 1 1 15 2 25 3 35 4 Hot Standard Carcass Weight (kg)
Competing retail protein prices Retail price c/kg If we get it wrong they will eat chook!
Take home messages Lamb & sheepmeat $ to remain traditionally buoyant Need more lambs plant efficiency & market demand Attention to detail required even given high prices Focus on improving genetics growth / muscle ++ Provide consumers with the best eating experience