National Drought Management Authority DROUGHT MONTHLY BULLETIN, JANUARY 2015 SAMBURU COUNTY JANUARY 2015 EWS PHASE Drought risk Low Medium High x LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL(EAST) LATE ALERT WORSENING PASTORAL(NORTH) EARLY ALERT WORSENING AGROPASTORAL LATE ALERT WORSENING COUNTY LATE ALERT WORSENING Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification The county is at Late Alert with high drought risk. No rainfall was received during the month. The vegetation condition index for the overall county was 42.75 an indication of no drought. The 3 month SPI value was 0.07 which was also within normal. Livestock migration patterns is below normal as it has started early. Water sources have dried up or are drying up quickly. Milk production is below the LTA. This has led to increased risks of malnutrition in children under 5 though the value is still within normal range. The TOT value is also within the normal range an indication of fair livestock prices against stable cereal prices. In view of the current situation, it is necessary to prepare to activate drought contingency plan. Color VCI values Drought Category 3-monthly average 50 Wet 35 to 50 No drought 20 to 35 Moderate Drought 10 to 20 Severe <10 Extreme Drought Biophysical Indicators Value Normal range % of average rainfall 0 80-120 VCI-3month 42.75 Above 35 SPI-3 month 0.07-1 to 1 State of Water Sources N/A 5 Production indicators Value Normal range Livestock Migration Pattern Below Normal Livestock Body Conditions N/A Score 4-5 Milk Production 50 Above Lt 167 Access Indicators Value LTA Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.52 Below 0.67 Milk Consumption N\A Utilisation indicators Value LTA MUAC (pastoral) 18.6 0-19.7 Coping Strategy Index (CSI) NA 1.50 1.02
MEASURING DROUGHT HAZARD 1 METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1 Rainfall Source: Ministry of Agriculture The county did not receive any rainfall during the reporting month. The county remained very hot, dry and dusty 1.2 SPI
The SPI-3month (November 2014-January 2015) for the entire Samburu County was 0.07 which was within normal range. The chart above shows the precipitation levels for the whole county expressed as SPI and comparing with similar period from the year 2001 to 2015. The SPI- 3month for Pastoral Livelihood zone of Samburu East, Samburu North and Samburu West Sub Counties was -0.15, 0.25 and 0.3 respectively which were also within normal ranges as shown by the disaggregated analysis below. 2. AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The VCI-3month (November 2014-January 2015) for the entire Samburu County was 42.75 an indication of no drought. However comparing vegetation with a similar period last year it can be noted that the condition has deteriorated.
The VCI- 3month for Agro Pastoral Livelihood zone of Samburu West and Pastoral LZ of Samburu North Sub Counties was 56.91 and 53.96 respectively which was also an indication of no drought. However it was 29.81 for Pastoral LZ of Samburu East an indication of moderate drought. The disaggregated analysis of VCI at sub-county level is shown below.
From the analysis it can be noted that vegetation in Samburu North and Samburu West sub counties are within very good condition. However VCI in Samburu East indicates moderate drought which is below normal comparing it with similar periods last year. 2.2 Condition of Pasture and Browse The quality and quantity of pasture in Pastoral LZ of Samburu North is fair though condition is deteriorating very fast due to overgrazing. However quality and quantity of pasture in Samburu East and Central is poor. Quality and quantity of browse range from good to fair for the entire county favoring goats and camels Condition of vegetation in dry grazing areas is poor following the poor performance of the rains and as a result the vegetation did not recover properly. 3. HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 3.1 Water resource The main water source for both livestock and household include: traditional river wells, natural rivers, boreholes, pans/ dams and shallow wells. High temperatures resulted to high evaporation rates leading to drying up of water sources such as pans/dams and also caused water table in boreholes to go down. Boreholes have also broken down as a result of operating for long hours. 3.2 Household distances to water Points
Number of communities (N) =31 The average return distance for households to main water sources increased to 5.22 km from 2.95 km last month. The distance was higher than the established long term average by 30 %. This increase was attributed to extreme hot and sunny conditions which brought about high evaporation rates and subsequently led to drying up of water sources. Households walked 4.6 km and 3.6 km in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones respectively. The variation is due to availability of more boreholes in Agro Pastoral LZ compared to Pastoral LZ. Sentinel sites which reported high averages were: Lodungokwe-15 km, Nachola-7 km and Sereolipi-6 km. 3.3 Grazing distances to water Points Number of communities (N) =31
The average return grazing distance for livestock to water sources increased to 9.05 km from 6.12 km last month. The distance was higher than the established long term average by 17%. This increase was attributed to extreme hot and sunny conditions which brought about high evaporation rates and subsequently led to drying up of water sources. Livestock trekked 9.7 km and 4.8 km in Pastoral and Agro pastoral LZ respectively. The variation is due to availability of more boreholes in Agro Pastoral LZ compared to Pastoral LZ. Sentinel sites which reported high averages were: Lodungokwe-19 km, Westgate-14.5 km,laresoro-13.7 km and Nachola-14 km B. MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS I. PRODUCTION INDICATORS I LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION 1) LIVESTOCK MIGRATION PATTERNS Early cattle migrations within, in and out of the county have been reported most of which are not normal. Large numbers of cattle from East Pokot, Marsabit, Samburu Central and Samburu East have migrated towards Samburu North in hotspots such as Marti/Lbukoi, Lesirikani and Waso Rongai mountain ranges in search of pasture and conflicts are likely to occur. In Samburu central livestock migrations from neighbouring Laikipia county have been reported in Lolmolog, Kirimon and Logewan. The residential livestock in Samburu central are moving towards Kirisia hills and Lodokejek. 2) LIVESTOCK BODY CONDITION Body condition for cattle was fair though the trend is likely to worsen as the drought persists. Body condition for shoats ranged from good to fair. This was attributed to fair pasture and browse which favored them 3) Milk Production Milk was unavailable to most households since most livestock have migrated. However some households possessed lactating goats and camels and were able to access milk which was mainly consumed by children. The County produced 50 bottles down from 69.67 bottles and consumed 44 bottles of 750 ml-bottles over the reporting period. The Agro Pastoral LZ and Pastoral LZ produced 92 and 206 bottles 750 ml-bottles respectively. The variation was due to large number of cattle in Pastoral LZ. 4) LIVESTOCK DEATHS AND DISEASES
Major diseases reported for cattle were: FMD in Lodungokwe,Sereolipi, Opiroi and Laresoro and ECF in Opiroi. The major diseases reported for goats were: CCPP in Laresoro, Westgate and Opiroi, Enthrotoxaemia in Nachola and Lodungokwe, Anaplasmosis in West Gate and PPR in Kawop and Nachola. Diarrhea in kids and sheep was also reported in most sentinel sites. II. ACCESS INDICATORS 1) Livestock terms trade(cereal: Meat Price Ratio) Number of Households (N) =336 A pastoralist household needs 0.52 kilogram of meat in exchange for a kilo of cereals (maize). The exchange rate was lower than the established long-term mean average by 23%.The favourable terms of trade was attributed to fair livestock prices and fairly stable cereal prices. Cereal-meat price ratio on average was 0.57 in the Pastoral LZ compared to 0.42 in the Agro pastoral LZ. The difference in purchasing power was attributed to availability of cereals in Agro pastoral LZ.
2) CATTLE PRICES Number of households (N) =336 Average price of cattle fell to Kshs 14,320 from Kshs 16,515 in December though the price was above the long term mean by 15%. The price drop was attributed to deteriorating body condition and also oversupply in the market as pastoralists needed to pay money to pay school fees. Cattle in Agro Pastoral LZ and Pastoral LZ fetched Kshs 9125 and Kshs 16863.6 respectively. The variation was due to better body condition in Pastoral LZ compared to cattle in Agro Pastoral LZ. 3) GOAT PRICES Number of households (N) =336
Average price of a goat fell to 2468.27 from 2552.68 in December. The price drop was above the long term mean by 23 %. The price drop was attributed to deteriorating body condition and also oversupply in the market as pastoralists needed to pay money to pay school fees. Goats in Agro Pastoral LZ and Pastoral LZ fetched Kshs 2681.5 and Kshs 2408.1 respectively. The variation was due to low supply in Agro Pastoral LZ compared to Pastoral LZ. 4) Sheep prices Number of households (N) =336 Average sheep price fell to Kshs. 2195.06 from Kshs 2203.25 in December. The price was above the long term mean by 22%. The price drop was attributed to deteriorating body condition and also oversupply in the market as pastoralists needed to pay money to pay school fees. Sheep in Agro Pastoral LZ and Pastoral LZ fetched Kshs 2425 and Kshs 1837.8 respectively. The variation was due to better body condition in Agro Pastoral LZ compared to Pastoral LZ.
5) PRICE OF CEREALS 5.1 POSHO (Maize Meal) Number of communities (N) =31 Price of posho (locally milled maize) remained almost the same with the previous month fetching an average of Kshs. 48.23 per Kilogram compared to Kshs.48.33 in December. The price was higher than the long-term mean by 6%.The stability of the price was attributed to availability of maize at market level from Meru, Rumuruti and Nyahururu. On average the price per kg was Kshs. 45 and Kshs 49.4 at the Agro Pastoral and Pastoral LZs respectively. Price hike in Pastoral LZ was attributed to added transport costs due to poor road infrastructure. 6) INCOME 6.1. Source of Income Source of Income
Number of Households (N) =336 Sale of livestock remains the major source of income for many households within the two county livelihood zones at 42 % which is a drop from last months 50%. However other activities like casual labour, petty trading and sale of charcoal have seen an increase in their percentages an indication of shift from the usual dependence on livestock. Other sources of income for a majority of households include: remittances, formal employment and sale of wood products. III UTILIZATION INDICATORS 1) MUAC (Nutrition Status) Number of Children (N) =1323 Nutritional status of children below five years worsened with the percentage of those considered at risk of malnutrition (based on monthly MUAC measurements) increasing to 18.6 from 16.48 in December. The increase was attributed to inadeqauate/lack of milk and food and also prevalence of diseases such as diarrhoea reported in most sentinel sites. Percentage of under-fives at risk (MUAC<135mm) was 5.8 and 22.6 in Agro Pastoral LZ and Pastoral LZ respectively. The variation was due to the fact that Agro Pastoral LZ also utilize legumes and vegetables which substitute milk, as they are easily accesed in the markets as compared to their Pastoralists counterparts. Inaddition, inadequate quantity and quality food, poor food handling and poor child care practices contributed to the high percentage of Underfives with MUAC<135mm in the Pastoral LZ. Sentinel site with high MUAC averages were: Kawop-52.3%, Tuum-38%, South Horr- 28.6%, Nachola-25.7 and Lodungokwe -22.5% 2) HEALTH Malaria, RTI and diarrhoea were widely reported in most sentinel sites. These diseases affected both adults and children. Cases of eye infections for children were reported in
Loosuk. Households countered the ailments through medical assistance sought from public health centres/ dispensaries, private clinics and use of local herbs. 3) COPING STRATEGY INDEX The average coping strategy index decreased to 2.33 up from 2.78 in December, an indication that households were coping fairly well despite the drought and also the mechanisms they were employing were working properly. The coping strategy index was 2.6 in the Pastoral LZ compared to 2.1 in the Agro pastoral LZ. The situation was better in Agro Pastoral LZ due to their diversified livelihood The common coping mechanisms included Charcoal burning, Water and firewood vending, Engagement in manual work and Begging from better off relatives and friends. IV. CURRENT INTERVENTIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS NON FOOD INTERVENTIONS Provision of water trucking to communities. Repair of broken down boreholes. Peace building and conflict management supported by the Ministry of Interior and Coordination, Catholic Church, World Vision and NDMA Water and Sanitation interventions Implemented by ACTED, IMC and World Vision. FOOD INTERVENTIONS Protective food ration programme executed by MOH, RAMATI and WFP in two health facilities in Samburu Central. General relief food distribution targeting 72,251 beneficiaries within the county (Samburu North, Samburu East and Samburu Central; Only Three Locations in Kirisia and Two Sublocations in Lorroki) at 50% ration level. Supplementary feeding in 51 health facilities in the county High Impact Nutrition Intervention targeting all under-fives, lactating and pregnant mothers across the County, implemented by UNICEF in partnership with World Vision, IMC, WFP, AMREF and MOH. RECOMMENDATIONS Rapid response teams on water to be put on standby (Borehole rehabilitation, water trucking and fuel subsidy). Provision of relief food to affected communities. Water trucking to schools, dispensaries and communities. Strategically place water tanks to areas where there is concentration of people. Treatment of water to avoid outbreaks of diseases Enhanced surveillance, vaccination and treatment of livestock against reported diseases. Enhance peace building campaigns across the County to calm tensions and ensure peaceful resource sharing.
Enhanced nutrition interventions in Entire County. Control of Malaria, Upper Respiratory Tract Infections and Diarrhoea should be carried out. Wildlife should be restricted in their designated areas to minimize human-wildlife conflict. V) EMERGING ISSUES INSECURITY/CONFLICT/HUMAN DISPLACEMENT The county remained relatively calm with no cases of insecurity reported. However this is likely to change as dry spell persists as warring communities converge together at grazing and drinking points. Cases of livestock predation and destruction of water were reported in most sentinel sites. VI) FOOD PROGNOSIS The county is food insecure and the trend is worsening. Failure of the Long Rains in March- May 2014 led to reduced yields in Agro pastoral LZ. The food stock at household level have been depleted and households forced to purchase food from the markets. The next harvest is expected around September and this is also dependent on the performance of the Long Rains 2015. The lowlands (Pastoral LZ) which are dependent on the Short Rains received below average rains and as a result, pasture and browse failed to regenerate completely. This has led to migration of livestock leaving households with no milk. Livestock prices are low thereby reducing pastoralist s purchasing power. The County and National Government should consider providing relief food to vulnerable households especially in the Agro pastoral LZ as they wait to their next harvesting season