World Acadey of Scence, Engneerng and Technology 9 2007 Moblty Analyss of the Populaton of Rabat-Salé-Zeour-Zaer F. Ghat Abstract In ths paper, we present the 2006 survey study orgn destnaton and prce that we carred out durng 2006 fall n the area n the Moroccan regon of Rabat-Salé-Zeour-Zaer. The survey concerns the people s characterstcs, ther dsplaceents behavor and the prce that they wll be able to pay for a traway tcket. The an objectve s to study a set of relatve features to the households and to ther dsplaceent's habts and to ther choces aong publc and prvet transport odes. A coparson between ths survey results and that of the 996 s s ade. A prcng schee s also gven accordng to the tra capacty. (The Rabat-Salé traway s under constructon rght now and t wll be operatonal begnnng 200). Keywords Matrx O/D, Theory of prcng, Urban transport survey. I. INTRODUCTION HE urban oblty and the dsplaceent polces are a T very strong ndcator of the qualty of lfe and of the econoc and socal evoluton of our socety. A better knowledge of the behavours and practces of dsplaceents are of prary portance for the organzaton and the plannng of the transportaton syste. Ths docuent s devoted anly to the publcaton of the results of the 2006 orgn destnaton and prcng survey conducted at the area of Rabat-Salé-Zeour-Zaer. It concerns a descrptve survey study, whose an objectve s to study a set of relatve characterstcs to the households and to the dsplaceents ade durng one day of the 2006 fall season. We also nvestgate people choces aong bus and traway accordng to the dstances to be travelled and to the tckets prces. Ths docuent s dvded nto fve parts. The frst one s related to the characterstcs of the survey and t brefly descrbed the context of ts acheveent and the ternology used. The second part presents the soco-deographc data relatng to the populaton and the terrtory of study. The thrd part s related to the study of the oblty at all the uncpaltes of the regon. We take nto account dfferent paraeters such as household's sze, sex, age, car possesson, drvng lcense ownershp, ode used, the otve for dsplaceents, etc. Ths part contans also a coparson between the current results and those of the 996 orgn destnaton survey. The last part concerns the study of the F. Ghat s wth Ecole Mohaada d Ingéneurs, Rabat, Morocco. traway prcng and recoends a prcng schee accordng to the traway's capacty. Ths part provdes also nforaton akng t possble to read and nterpret people choces related to takng a bus or a traway. II. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE 2006 SURVEY STUDY The 2006 survey study orgn destnaton was perfored on autun at the urban area Rabat-Salé-Zeour-Zaer. We choosed the autun season for the survey snce durng ths season there s soe stablty of dsplaceents and of flow oveents. Drect questons or telephone ntervews were carred out for nhabtants of the survey study area. The an characterstcs recorded by ths survey study are: Orgn and destnaton of each dsplaceent; the ean and the reason of the dsplaceent; ode or odes used for the dsplaceent; buses lnes used f any; choce between bus and traway related to the tnerary travel dstances and to tckets prces. Soe soco-deographc nforaton (nuber of people by household, age and sex) that s essental wth the weghtng and the data expanson was also collected at the te of the survey study. The terrtory of survey study s lted to the urban areas of Wlaya of Rabat-Salé and anly to the dstrcts of the towns of Rabat, Salé, and wth the uncpaltes of Téara Skhrate. For Rabat, we consder the two uncpaltes Touarga and Hassan together because buses do not crculate nsde of the frst one. The uncpaltes of Youssoufa and Souss are gathered under the nae of Youssoufa snce they are served practcally by the sae bus lnes. Skhrate-Téara contans the uncpaltes of An El Aouda, Harhoura, Skhrate and Téara. An El Aouda desgnates ts urban dstrct and also the dstrcts of Mers el Khaïr, An Atk and El Menzeh. The fnal lst of the studed uncpaltes s: TABLE I LIST OF STUDIED MUNICIPALITIES Rabat Salé Skhrate-Téara Agdal Ryad Bab Larssa Harhoura El Youssoufa Bettana Hssane Hassan Hssane Skhrate Souss Layayda Téara Y.El Mansour Tabrquet The 2006 survey study orgn destnaton s based on drect or telephone ntervews. 2
World Acadey of Scence, Engneerng and Technology 9 2007 We consdered seven years groups of age: 0-4, 5-9, 20-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-64 and ore 65 years. People actvtes were classfed nto four groups: worker, student, retred and other. The destnatons are work s place, study s place or other. For each destnaton t s necessary to specfy the uncpalty. The travel reasons stated by the ntervewee were grouped n four categores: work, study, lesure and other. The transport eans used by the ntervewees were grouped n sx categores: Wang, 2-wheels, Car, Tax, Bg tax, Bus and Other. For those usng a car, the drvers are theselves, ther spouse, or others. The travel dstances of dsplaceents consdered are three knds: Less than 5K, Between 5 and 0 k and greater than 0 k. The questonnare s suarsed by the followng table: TABLE II QUESTIONNAIRE CONTENT Household People Dsplaceents Prcng Nuber of people Nuber of cars Nubers of two wheels Habtaton Place before 5 years. Sex Age Drvng lcence Actvty Study or work locaton A nuber of exts Orgn Destnaton Motve Departure te Return te Transport eans Bus lnes used Dstance Correspondence Car's Occupancy Parkng Choce between: Publc or prvate transport eans Bus and Traway related to dstances and travel costs III. STATISTICS OF THE POPULATION OF THE AREA The autooble park n crculaton n Morocco progress wth an average rate of 5.4% per year [6]. On the average 70000 vehcles are added each year between 990 and 2002. Ths rate s exactly twce as large as the rate of populaton ncrease for the sae perod that s 2.7%. The study of the area populaton s a key factor explanng the oblty of ts nhabtants. Ths study s anly based on 994 and 2004 censuses [2], for the deternaton of the forecasts of the populatons and the households for both 996 and 2006 years. The results as well as the annual rate varatons of the populaton and the households for years 996 and 2006 are presented n Table III. They concerned the towns of Rabat, Salé and Skhrate Téara and for the total populaton of the studed area. The ncreasng rate of Rabat populaton s very low copared to those of Salé and Skhrate-Téara. Indeed Rabat underwent an ncrease of 0.%, whereas urban populaton of Salé underwent an ncrease of 3% and that of Skhrate - Téara an ncrease of 64.5% (Table III). These phenoena can be explaned by the portant rural graton to Salé and Skhrate Téara ctes. And also, by the great nuber of Rabat nhabtants who oved to these two ctes. We found that ths ovng state fro Rabat to Salé or/and Skhrate- Téara durng 996 to 2006 perod s caused by the fact that the resdences becae ncreasngly rare n Rabat downtown and ther prces underwent a great ncrease whereas n Salé and Skhrate Téara the prces were prosng. The followng graph shows the populaton evoluton by uncpalty between 996 and 2006: TABLE III POPULATION FORECASTS Muncpalty 996 2006 Increase AGDAL RIYAD 77056 9430 2,04% ELYOUSSOUFIA 9685 2097 0,25% HASSAN 50407 325 -,35% Y. EL MANSOUR 20097 202830 0,3% BAB LAMRISSA 8947 46320 23,0% BETTANA 02346 0337,00% HSSAINE 87603 9354 8,43% LAYAYDA 89753 26666 4,3% TABRIQUET 2053 24206 4,57% AIN EL AOUDA 4430 6980 56,6% HARHOURA 6876 9955 44,77% SKHIRATE 3898 46367 45,36% TEMARA 45846 25450 72,4% As concluson of ths part, we can stated that the ncreasng annual rates about the total populaton of the area related by ths study fro 996 to 2006 and respectvely to those of the ctes concerned are: Total area : 2.06 % Rabat : 0.0 % Salé : 2.74 % Skhrate Téara : 5.0 % IV. STATISTICAL TABLES OF THE RESULTS OF THE SURVEY STUDYS 996 AND 2006 The followng table presents a general descrpton of the resdents oblty n the surveyed area. It s related to the: Nuber of oble people (nuber of people who ove on a labour day); Nuber of dsplaceents perfored by resdents ; Nuber of non oble resdents ; Average nuber of dsplaceents per people". Ths oblty s shown for the 996 and 2006 years by Table IV. We notce that durng ths te the nuber of oble people ncreased by 72%, whch corresponds to 5.5 % as an annual ncreasng. The nuber of dsplaceents s followng practcally the sae evoluton, whle the nuber of non oble people underwent an portant reducton around 9 22
World Acadey of Scence, Engneerng and Technology 9 2007 % each year. The average nuber of dsplaceents per people underwent a lttle ncrease. Ths average changed fro.54 durng 996 to.62 n 2006. TABLE IV MOBILITY FROM 996 TO 2006 General portrat 996 (0 3 ) 2006 (0 3 ) Total % Varaton Yearly % varaton # of oble people 968 66 7,6% 5,5% # of dsplaceents 489 2695 8,0% 6,% # of not oble 404 59-60,7% -8,9% people Average nuber of dsplaceents,54,62 5,5% 0,5% A. Orgn Destnaton Matrces Orgn destnaton atrces are presented bellow for the 996 survey study and for the 2006 one. We notce that the nubers of dsplaceents nsde of the sae uncpalty are the ost portant ones. They are represented by the frst dagonal of the base of the fgure. Ther travel dstances are n general sall. They are saller than the uncpalty's wde. Most of these travels are carred out by wang. B. Dsplaceents Accordng to the Mode Used We explored the dsplaceents respectvely to ther ode as seen n Fgs. 3 and 4. 3% 7% % % 5% 6% Wa 2-wheels Car Sall tax Bg-tax 57% Bus Other Mllers 60 40 Fg. 3 Dstrbuton of 996 dsplaceents accordng to the travelng ode used 20 00 Wa 80 2-wheels 60 3 3% Ca 40 Skhrate Sall tax 20 0 An El Aouda Tabrquet Hssan Larssa 20% 2 60% Bg-tax Agdal-Ryad Hassan Yacoub Mansour Youssoufa Larssa Laayayda Hssane Bettana Tabrquet Téara An Aouda Harhoura Skhrat Y.Mansour Agdal Ryad Bus Othe Fg. Total nubers dsplaceents between the varous uncpaltes n 996 250000 200000 50000 00000 50000 0 Agdal Ryad Hassan Yacoub Mansour Youssoufa Larssa Laayayda Hssane Bettana Tabrquet Téara An Aouda Harhoura Skhrat Yacoub Mansour Agdal Ryad Hssane Larssa An Aouda Tabrquet Fg. 2 Total nubers dsplaceents between the varous uncpaltes n 2006 Skhrat Fg. 4 Dstrbuton of 2006 dsplaceents accordng to the travelng ode used The percentage of nhabtants usng two wheels decreases by 3% fro 996 to 2006. These phenoena can be explaned by the road nsecurty for the two wheels users. In fact, accordng to the Drecton of the Roads and the Road traffc (DRCR) of Morocco; on 2004, 80.7 % of ortal road accdents n aggloeratons are auto-cycle rders. The tendency worsened wth an ncrease of 7.82 % durng 2005. The odal share of the bus was reduced alost by 4%, ths event ay be s the consequence of the bad condton of the buses park and of the bad qualty of the servce offered. On the other hand the travelng car ode ncreased by ganng 9.4% of the dsplaceents n the area. Ths phenoenon s due to the ncrease n the prvate cars park. The percentage of the ode of dsplaceent "other" underwent an portant reducton of 5%. Indeed ths ode ncludes all organzed dsplaceents of the personnel by eployers, dsplaceents not otorzed, nforal odes, carts and other old-fashoned eans of dsplaceents. Ths 23
World Acadey of Scence, Engneerng and Technology 9 2007 fact can be explaned by the reoval of the offcal cars fro ost of the publc adnstratons and by the reducton of the nuber of carts and ther regulaton n Salé and Skhrate Téara. C. Dsplaceents Accordng to the Motve Dsplaceents accordng to the otve for the two survey studes are presented by Fg. 5 and Fg. 6. Shoppng 3 Lesure Stude 48 Fg. 5 Dstrbuton of 996 dsplaceents accordng to the otve Lesure % Others 5 Others 7% Stude 39 Work 43 Work Fg. 6 Dstrbuton of 2006 dsplaceents accordng to the otve Fro these two fgures, we notce that the percentages of the dsplaceents for work underwent a reducton of 0% and those for study a reducton of 9%. We can explan ths decrease by the nsttuton of the contnuous tetable at ost of the publc adnstratons and at several establshents of the prary and secondary educaton. On the other hand the percentages of dsplaceents for lesure and the other otves ncreased. For lesure, we can say that snce the workers and the eployees leave work toward 6h30, they can go out agan for shoppng or for lesure after work. Besdes that, we also note t at the te of the ntervews a large nuber of people say that after work, they ether to go to coffee place, to eet soe frends, or to do shoppng. The reducton of the dsplaceent percentages for work and for studes after the nsttuton of the contnuous tetable should represent alost 45%, f we based ourselves on the percentages of the dsplaceents by otve on 996. However, ths reducton s only 9% because the contnuous tetable s not generalzed everywhere, especally at the prvate and educaton sectors. Accordng to the results of 2006 survey study, the percentage of the workers that adopted the contnuous tetable s 58.6 % and the percentage of the dsplaceents for work done by the workers who follow the contnuous tetable s 4.4 %. Regard to the otve for studes, these percentages are weaker, the percentage of the 33% students that adopted the contnuous tetable s of 6.6 % and the percentage of the dsplaceents done by these sae students s of 9.0 %. V. STUDY OF THE TRAMWAY PRICING A. Choce between Publc and Prvate Transport Durng the ntervew, we asked the followng queston: f you have a prvate ean of dsplaceent whch one wll choose; yours prvate one or the publc transport? Ths queston s gven to have an dea about the attractveness of the traway and the bus. We notce that a large percentage (84 %) of the area's populaton prefers the prvate transport versus the publc one. When the tckets prces for the traway and the bus, the choce ade s practcally 00% for the traway. Ths s evdent as the traway s faster and ore cofortable than the bus. Assung that the traway tcket costs 6 DH and that of the bus costs 4 DH, alost 60 % of the nhabtants of the survey study area choose the traway. We observed only a sall preference towards the traway when the travelled dstance ncreases. Ths can be explaned by the fact that nhabtants are not takng care of te savng carred out by usng the traway nstead of the bus for larger travellng dstances. Fnally n the case, when the traway tcket costs 8 DH and that of the bus costs 4 DH, nearly 20 % of the nhabtants of the area choose the traway. When ther travellng dstance s lower than 5 K, Ths percentage rses slghtly when the dstance ncreases. B. Choce between Two Buses, Two Traways or a Bus and a Traway In the followng tables, we represented the choces of the nhabtants of the survey area when they have to use two eans of transport to travel. These eans are ether two lnes of buses, two lnes of traways, or a lne of traway and a lne of bus. We notce that when the tckets of the traway and the bus are dentcal; the travellers choose two traway lnes. When the tcket of the traway costs two drhas ore than the bus tcket; 44% of the travellers choose 2 traways and alost the sae percentage of the travellers choose 2 buses and nearly 2% choose a traway and a bus. These choces are practcally ndependent of the travelled dstances. When the tcket of the traway costs twce as expensve as the bus tcket; the percentage of the travellers who choose 2 traways s between 20% and 22%. 70% to72% of the travellers chooses 2 bus and only 7% choose one traway and one bus. These choces vary slghtly between 0% and 2% accordng to the travelled dstances. In fact, when the dstance ncreases; the rate of two traways users' ncreases and that of the two buses users decreases. C. Study of the Traway Tcket The next Fg. 7 llustrates the choce between the traway 24
World Acadey of Scence, Engneerng and Technology 9 2007 and the bus accordng to the cost of the traway tcket when the dstance exceeds 0 k. 2 2 22 (,) (,2) (2,2) 2 (,) 00% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 4 6 8 Traway Bus Coût tra Fg. 7 Choce between traway and bus when the dstance s between 5 and 0K Ths graph shows that when the traway tcket costs 6 DH the share of dsplaceents by traway s 60 % and that of the bus s 40 %. To deterne the convenent cost to apply for the traway tcket n order to axse the traway copany benefts, t would be nterestng to copare the share of dsplaceents between the traway and the bus. For ths purpose, we studed frst the travel deand on the dfferent sectons served by the traway. Second, we deterned the percentage of travellers who we wll be able to assgn to the traway accordng to ts capacty. And fnally, we wll copare ths percentage to the share of dsplaceents by traway revealed by the survey. To ths end, we perfor the followng coputatons: Let desgnate a traway lne T and c the capacty of all ts vehcles. We shall assue that the traway passes by zones, 2,.. and that dj are the dsplaceents deands fro zone towards zone j. The da s the total dsplaceent deand that could be carred out by the lne T on the outward journey n drecton of, 2... In the opposte sense dr denote the return deand by that lne. da = = d j j = + + d = / 2 We suppose that half of the deand of dsplaceents expressed nsde a zone wll take the drecton on the outward trp and the other half wll take the other drecton. Thus for each the deand of dsplaceents to go nsde zone s d /2 and t s equal to that one of the return nsde zone. We also suppose that all the travellers cong fro the zone wll catch the tra at ts frst stop at that zone; those who wll end ther trp at zone wll alght the traway at ts last zone stop, and those whose destnaton s at j zone wll alght at the frst j zone stop. These assuptons splfy the lne of the traway, whch can be ade up just by two knds of sectons or arcs: arc nsde a zone or arc between zones and zone +. Arc nsde zone wll be noted (,) and that between zone and zone +wll be noted (,+) for =,2... Thus the traway lne wll have just two stops at each zone. They wll be noted and 2 for =, 2,. Fg. 8 Splfed path of a lne of traway The traveller nubers or the traway deands fro zones towards zone wth the outward trp s dat,,, where dat s: dat = d / 2 + d for < dat = d /2 k = + l= The traveller's nuber or the deand of the traway fro zone towards + zone wth the outward journey s dat + = + k = + l= where dat + s: dat d for < We can see that dat dat + = dat - d /2 Let * dat = Sup { dat } Where dat * represents the axu nuber of travellers on all the arcs of the traway lne wth the outward journey. If the traway vehcles accoplsh r outward journeys and r returns; ts capacty for one day s rc for both drecton. The percentage of the deands for dsplaceents that the traway can support wth the outward journey noted pda s 00 % f dat * /r c, and t s less than 00 % f dat * /r > c Next, we wll deterne pda when dat * /r > c. For that, we wll proceed as the followng way: Begnnng by =0, = +, = sup (0, dat - rc) Here, we assue that the nubers of dsplaceents nsde of the sae uncpalty are the ost portant ones. They are represented by the frst dagonal of the base of the fgure. Ther travel dstances are n general sall. They are saller than the uncpalty's wde. Most of these travels are carred out by wang. The non supported dsplaceents by the traway are proportonally dstrbuted to the values of the deands sectons (, j) for j =,.. to. We calculate the non supported dsplaceents between zones and J whch s pan j. pan = *(da /2)/dat and pan k = *da k /dat for k> So that,the non supported deand on the secton (, ) s: da * da k = + = pan k 2 dat k = 2 dat k = d k wll be replaced by d k - pan k for k =,2.. and d by d - 2*pan. We calculate: j dat = d / 2 + d for j =2.. so that dat wll be replaced by : k = j+ l= dat - pan k k= j+ Then we wll replace by + and we proceed as before untl =. Fnally the total deand not supported by the traway to 25
World Acadey of Scence, Engneerng and Technology 9 2007 the outward journey s: = = The percentage of the deands for dsplaceents whch the traway can support wth the outward journey s pda = (da - dna) /da By the nuber of dsplaceents not supported by the traway wth the return back travel s: dnr = dnr The percentage of the deand for dsplaceents whch the traway can support wth the return back travel s: pdr = (dr - dnr) /dr The followng flow chart wll deterne the nuber of dsplaceents not supported by the traway to the outward journey: dna =0 non Fn dat= d/2 = non d j dat = + 2 dj, dna=0, =,2.. j=,2.. j k = j+ l= dat>rc d =0, j=0 =+ = Fg. 9 Flow chart of the deternaton of the dsplaceents not supported by the traway on one way Fnally, the percentage of the total deand for dsplaceents that the traway can support s gven by: [ pda * da + pdr * dr] pd = da + dr Accordng to 2006-survey study results the fgure 7 shows that f the traway capacty can support just 60% of the passengers, t wll be proftable to set up the tcket cost of the traway at 6 DH level. On the other hand f ths traway capacty supports just 20% of the passengers, t would be advantageous to fx the cost of the traway tcket at 8 DH. The followng fgure shows the choce accordng to the cost of the traway tcket between 2 traways, 2 buses or a traway and a bus when the dstance exceeds 0 k. no j=j+ dna = dat -rc j= j= no pan j = dna *d j /dat dj = dj panj 00% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 0% 0 4 6 8 2Traway Traway cost Fg. 0 Choces between 2 traways, 2 buses or a traway and a bus accordng to the traway tcket for dstance> 0 k Fg. 0 shows well that the prce of the tcket of the traway tcket as 6 DH represents a crtcal pont. Beyond ths threshold, the attracton of the traway s lower than that of the bus. If the capacty of the two lnes of the traway akes t possble to support 40% of the passengers, t would be advantageous to set the cost of the traway tcket at 6 DH. If the capacty of the traway akes t possble to support just 20 % of the passengers, t wll be ore advantageous to set the cost of the traway tcket at 8 DH. We can also represent the traway recept accordng to the traway capacty and see whether t would be advantageous to ncrease ths capacty or not. VI. CONCLUSION Nowadays, the oblty anageent s a ajor poltcal stake. By ths study, the polcy of oblty n the area of Rabat-Salé-Zeour-Zaer wll have a large vson of nhabtant's dsplaceents and a coparson between 2006 stuaton of oblty and that of 996. The no exstence of relable and coplete data on oblty n Morocco for a long te had let the decders akng decsons on the bass of older deas, or receved suggestons, rather than on real facts. These surveys n partcular show the portant rate of dsplaceents between the habtaton and work or school whch s between 72 and 90 %. It also llustrates the strong proporton of the populaton, whch was at 28 % on 996 and that underwent an portant reducton durng 2006 of alost 9 %. The current tendency found s a hgher ncrease n the urban dsplaceent deands wth a an trend towards prvate transport. It s necessary to hand over clear objectves wth transport on coon runnng wthn the fraework of urban developents and ground occupatons. Intally, t s necessary to set the share of urban dsplaceents, whch ust be supported by publc transport. The part of transport by bus s very low, 7 % on 996 and t decreased to 3 % on 2006. Ths suggests that ths sector ust becoe ore effectve to offer to the custoer a better servce, n quantty and qualty. It s also necessary to set the share of urban dsplaceents whch ust be supported by publc transport. Ths share s to be deterned accordng to condtons of copleentartes wth the prvate car. The goal s beng nzng the congestons, and to optzng the use of the exstng nfrastructures. We studed the traway prcng accordng to a trp that need just one traway or bus lne and the trp that 2 Traway + bu 26
World Acadey of Scence, Engneerng and Technology 9 2007 needs two eans of publc transport lne. Fnally, ths study akes t possble to deterne the cost of the traway tcket accordng to the capacty offered by the traway lne. REFERENCES [] Banque ondale, Etudes éconoques de la banque ondale sur le Moyen-Orent et l'afrque du nord Tunse, Washngton, D.C. 997 [2] RGPH, Recenseent général de la populaton et de l'habtat 2004, Drecton de la Statstque Rabat Maroc 2004 [3] M..L. Hazelton, Soe coents on orgn destnaton atrx estatondeande. Transportaton Research Part A 37 (2003) pp.8 822 [4] H.P. Lo and C.P. Chan, Sultaneous estaton of an orgn destnaton atrx and lnk choce proportons usng traffc counts. Transportaton Research Part A 37 (2003) pp.77 788 [5] A.D. May, A.F. Jopson and B. Matthews Research challenges n urban transport polcy, Insttute for Transport Studes, Unversty of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK Transport Polcy 0 (2003) pp. 57 64 [6] A. Bezard le secteur autooble au Maroc. Fche de synthèse, Assocaton Marocane pour l Industre et le Coerce de l Autooble AMICA sson éconoque 2003. 27