Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Global Monthly Index, >5 = expansion 5 Output Export orders 5 9 http://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/economic-monitoring
Sept ' Dec '5 Sept ' Sept ' Dec '5 Sept ' Bail out / state aid measure Trade defense Trade finance Import tariff Localization requirement Export taxes Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan- Apr- Jul- Index, >5 = expansion 53 Output Average since 5 5 5 Number of measures 5 5 Percent FOMC median Market-based expectations 3 7 Long-run
Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Percent, 3m-o-3m saar Industrial production Retail sales 5 3 - - 5 U.S. dollars per pound.5..3 Exchange rate -year bond yield. Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Percent..8.....8.... Percent..5..5. 3
Percent change in terms of trade Brazil Nigeria South Africa Russia Percent, year-on-year 8 - - - -8 3 5 Index, >5 is expansion 55 5 5 Q3 average Q average - - South Africa Malaysia Brazil Colombia Nigeria Indonesia -3 Russia - - -3 - - Percent change in REER
Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Percent, y-o-y 8 Commodity importers Commodity exporters Commodity importers ex. China - 3 5 US$ billions 3 - - -3 EM equity funds EM bond funds Percentage change 5-5 -5-75 - -7 Energy Metal Agriculture 5
Japan Euro Area Denmark Switzerland Sweden Hungary Denmark Spain France Germany Sweden Net interest income margin rate volume Non-interest charge margin rate volume Non-interest charge Net percent 3 Past six months Next six months - -5-9 Enterprises Households for House Purchase Percentage points Range from -present Pre-NIRP Current Percent 7 5 3 - Latest Pre-NIRP
3 5 Index, Jan = 5 World Euro Area Japan 5 75 5 Basis points Average Median Percent - - - Financial sector CDS Financial sector equities (RHS) -. Index, Q= Euro Area Sweden Japan 5 Switzerland Denmark 3 9 7
Global Economic Prospects - January 7 (forthcoming) Commodity Markets Outlook - Negative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications Commodity Markets Outlook - July : From Energy Prices to Food Prices: Moving in Tandem Global Economic Prospects - June : Divergences and Risks Commodity Markets Outlook - April : Resource Development in an Era of Cheap Commodities Global Economic Prospects - January : Spillovers amid Weak Growth Does Governing Law Affect Bond Spreads? The World Is Not Yet Flat: Transport Costs Matter! Informality in the Process of Development and Growth Unequal Opportunity, Unequal Growth Global Talent Flows Strategic Investment Funds: Opportunities and Challenges Retooling Poverty Targeting Using Out-of-Sample Validation and Machine Learning Economic Integration across Latin America: Evidence from Labor Markets, 99 3 Faraway or Nearby? Domestic and International Spillovers in Patenting and Product Innovation Russian Federation: How Services Contribute to Competitiveness (Percent, y-o-y) (Percent y-o-y) Recent releases: Sept 3, - Oct, Upcoming releases: Oct 3, - Nov, Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Netherlands 9/3/ GDP Q.8 %.3 %.5% Singapore /3/ GDP Q3. % Singapore 9/3/ CPI AUG -.3 % -.% -.7 % China /8/ GDP Q3.7 % Germany 9/9/ CPI SEP.7 %. %. % South Korea // GDP Q3 3.3 % Japan 9/9/ CPI AUG -.5 % -.5 % -. % UK /7/ GDP Q3. % Italy 9/3/ CPI SEP. % % -. % France /8/ GDP Q3.3 % Denmark 9/3/ GDP Q.3 %.%.3 % United States /8/ GDP Q3.3 % Indonesia /3/ CPI SEP 3.% 3.%.8% Belgium /8/ GDP Q3. % Philippines // CPI SEP.3 %.%.8 % Austria /3/ GDP Q3. % Netherlands // CPI SEP. %.3 %. % Eurozone /3/ GDP Q3. % Mexico /7/ CPI SEP 3.%.9%.7% Indonesia /7/ GDP Q3 5.% Brazil /7/ CPI SEP 8.5% 8.% 9.% Malaysia // GDP Q3. % Czech Republic // CPI SEP.5 %. % Japan /3/ GDP Q3.7 % Denmark // CPI SEP. %.3 %. % Greece // GDP Q3 -.9 % Greece // CPI SEP -. % -.7% -.9 % Italy /5/ GDP Q3.8 % Hungary // CPI SEP. % -. % Hungary /5/ GDP Q3.8 % Germany /3/ CPI SEP.7 %. %. % Czech Republic /5/ GDP Q. % Italy // CPI SEP. %. % -. % Netherlands /5/ GDP Q3.8 % Singapore // GDP Q3. %.%. % Poland /5/ GDP Q3 3. % China /8/ GDP Q3.7 %.7 %.7 % Portugal /5/ GDP Q3.9 % United States /8/ CPI SEP.5 %.5 %. % Thailand // GDP Q3 3.5 % Malaysia /9/ CPI SEP.5 % 3 %.5 % Philippines // GDP Q3 7. % 8
(Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized) 5 5 5 Q3 Q Q Q Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Industrial Production, sa World 3..9..5....5.8.8..3...9.. Advanced Economies..5.7 -.. -.. -. -.3. -. -.. -. -. -.3. Emerging Market and Developing Economies Inflation, sa.5 3. 3....3 3.5 3.3.9 3. 3.9 3.7 3. 3.7. 3.5 3.9 Commodity-exporting EMDE. -.3 -.3.3.5. -. -. -...7 -.7 -.8.5.8.9 - Other EMDE.8 5. 5. 5.9.9 5.3 5..7.8.8.7 5.5.8 5. 5...9 East Asia and Pacific 7.5 5.8 5. 7.7 3.3 7. 5.3 5.8 5.3 5. 5.5.3 5.5.. 5.9.3 East Asia excl. China 3. 3. 5. 5.8. 3.5 3.7.3. 5.5 5.5 3.. 5.7.5 5.8 5. Europe and Central Asia.7.5.9..3.5.3... 3..5..3.9 -.. Latin America and Caribbean -.7-3. -. -.5-3..7 -.7-5. -. -.3 -.9 -. -.3-3. -. -.5 -.9 Middle East and North Africa.8.. 9.9. -3.3 3.8.9.. 7...9.3 3.. - South Asia..3.7-8.3. 5..3 -.3.9. 3..5 -...9 -. -. Sub-Saharan Africa... -.. 8.3 -. -.3. -.9.5 -....3.. World....5.3..5.5.5.5.....3.. Advanced Economies.5....3.....5.3....3..3 Emerging Market and Developing Economies 3.3.5.3..5.8.....7..8.7..8.7 Commodity-exporting EMDE 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.3 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.3 3. 3.5 3.5 3.9 3.3 Other EMDE.9.....9....3...8.8..3.9 East Asia and Pacific 3...7...5.3..3.5.3..7..8.9.7 Europe and Central Asia..7.8..7.3.7..5.5..3.3....5 Latin America and Caribbean 3..7..3.7 3.5...3...5 3.5 3. 3.3.9.9 Middle East and North Africa.7.9..8.5.3..7.3.......3. South Asia.8 3.5. 3. 3.5.8. 3.3 3.3 3.3 3. 3.9. 5. 5. 5..5 Sub-Saharan Africa. 3.8.5..5 5....3..5.7.8 3.7.7. 5.9. 3.8.5..5 5....3..5.7.8 3.7.7. 5.9 (Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) 5 5 5 Q3 Q Q Q Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Exports, Nominal, US$, sa World. -.5-5.9 -.9 -.7 3.7 -.5 -. -. -.9-9. -3.7 -. -3.3 -.3 -.8 - Advanced Economies.3 -.3-5. -7. -5.7.8 -. -9.8-9.9-9.3 -. -3.7 -. -. -.8-5.7 - Emerging Market and Developing Economies.9 -.9 -.7-5. -3.3. -3.9-3. -. -5.9 -. -3.8 -.8-7. -.7-8. - Commodity-exporting EMDE -.7 -. -. -. -5.8 5.3 -.8-3.5 -. -.7-3.5 -. -. -. -3. - - Other EMDE 5. -3.7 3. -. -..3-7. -.8-3.9 -. -7.. -. -3.8 -.3 -.8 -. East Asia and Pacific. -3.5.5 -. -5..8-8.3-7.9 -.3-3. -. 5.9-3.9-5.3 -. -.3 -.8 Europe and Central Asia -.9 -.7 -.8-9.3 -. 9. -.5-7.7 -.7 -. -.9-3. -8. -. -3.9-8.5 - Latin America and Caribbean -.8 -.9-8.8 -. -5..5 -.9 -.7 -.5 -. -3.7-9. -5.3 -. -8. -7.9 - Middle East and North Africa -5. -.3-5. -8. - - -5. -. -. -.7 - - - - - - - South Asia. -.7 -.8.5.7 -. -.5-8.9-5. -3.. -.3.9 -. -.3 - - Sub-Saharan Africa -. -7. -.7 -. -38. - -8.7-8.3-9. -. -.7 -. - - - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, sa World. -. -5. -7. -. 9. -3.3 -. -. -.7-5.3-7.5-5.9 -.5-5.3-9.8 - Advanced Economies. -.5 -.3-7. -9.5 7. -. -8.9 -.3-9.7 -.7 -.7 -. -. -.8-8. - Emerging Market and Developing Economies -. -.8 -. -. -.8 3.7-5.5 -.8 -. -5. -9. -8. -9. -3. -5.7 -.5 - Commodity-exporting EMDE -.5 -.9-9.9 -.3-7.5 -. -.9-5.8-7. -8. -5. -3. -3. -9.5-8.3 - - Other EMDE.9 -. -. -3. -5. 9. -.8 -. -7. -3.3 -.8 -.5-7. -.9-5.3 -. 3. East Asia and Pacific -.5-3. -. -. -9.7. -8. -8.7-8.3 -. -. -5.3-8..9 -. -.9. Europe and Central Asia -3.7 -.7-7.8-9..9 9.9-9. -8.5-8. -5. -5. -3.8-3. -.8.5 -. - Latin America and Caribbean -.7-9.9 -.3-5. -5.8 3. -. -. -5.7 -.3-9.9 -. -. -.3-9. -. - Middle East and North Africa 3. -.3-8.8-5. - - -5.5 -.9-9. -3. - - - - - - - South Asia. -3. -. -3. -3..8-8. -5. -3. -.9-3.5-8.9-8.8-9. -7. -. -. Sub-Saharan Africa. -7. -7.5-9.8 - - -. -9.7 -. -8.8 - - - - - - - International Reserves, US$ World -.3-5.8 -. -.7.. -. -. -. -.... -.5... Advanced Economies... -..3. -.3 -..7......5.. Emerging Market and Developing Economies -. -. -3. -3.9 -... -. -. -.8 -..7. -.8.. -. Commodity-exporting EMDE -.5 - -. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Other EMDE.7 -. -. -. -.7.. -.3 -. -. -..8. -.7.5. -. East Asia and Pacific. -.5 -.9 -. -.3.. -.3 -. -.7 -.3..3 -..7. -. Europe and Central Asia -.8-5..3-3..3.9 -. -.9 -.5.8..5. -...3. Latin America and Caribbean. -5. -.7 -..7. -.9 -. -.. -..9. -. -..9 -. Middle East and North Africa -. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - South Asia.3.5 -.8..9..9 -..7 -. -.3.3. -.8... Sub-Saharan Africa -. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 9
(Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period ) 5 5 MRV 5 Q3 Q Q Q Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Interest rates and LIBOR (percent) U.S. Fed Funds Effective.9.3...37.37...3.37.37.37.3.38.39... ECB repo..5.5.5...5.5.5.5........ US$ LIBOR 3-months.3.3.3....37.5...3.3.5.5.7.8.85.88 EURIBOR 3-months. -. -.3 -.9 -.9 -. -.9 -.3 -.5 -.8 -.3 -.5 -. -.7 -.9 -.3 -.3 -.3 US -yr Treasury yield.53...8.9.75..3..77.88.79.8..8.5.3.75 German Bund, yr..5.7.5.3..55.59.5.3..7.. -.9 -.7 -.5.3 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 33 3 3 78 9 3 85 57 3 8 8 387 37 3 357 Asia 3 33 5 7 35 53 8 8 3 3 33 9 9 93 Europe 87 38 35 3 339 35 9 38 338 359 39 38 35 33 9 8 73 7 Latin America & Caribbean 7 559 5 577 5 55 553 595 87 588 559 55 5 9 73 3 5 Middle East 388 7 7 5 555 538 53 5 5 58 55 539 53 55 5 9 93 9 Africa 33 9 5 59 58 8 555 573 5 55 5 9 8 38 Stock Indices (end of period) Global (MSCI) 7 399 38 399 395 399 7 399 375 37 395 3 3 399 7 8 5 Advanced Economies ($ Index) 7 3 58 3 38 53 9 3 5 57 38 7 75 53 73 7 7 77 United States (S&P 5) 59 9 5 99 8 9 93 5 5 97 99 7 7 8 Europe (S&P Euro 35) 7 5 7 35 339 558 7 38 37 35 379 399 339 37 39 388 393 Japan (Nikkei 5) 9 9 7388 887 555 557 99 887 758 5989 555 7 735 557 55 887 5 999 Emerging Market and Developing Economies (MSCI) 95 79 79 79 8 83 8 79 7 7 8 8 87 83 879 89 93 93 EM Asia 57 39 7 8 37 39 5 7 3 8 8 EM Europe 97 59 7 5 3 37 7 88 8 5 9 73 7 EM Europe & Middle East 57 3 5 8 3 3 5 5 7 3 33 3 EM Latin America & Caribbean 78 83 895 83 9 99 83 7 8 9 38 9 359 38 588 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) Advanced Economies Euro Area.75.9.9.9.9.89.93.9.9.9.9.88.89.89.9.89.89.9 Japan 5.89... 5.3 7.9.. 8.37..87 9.57 8.97 5.3.9.3.9 3. Emerging and Developing Economies Brazil.35 3.33 3.55 3.8 3.9 3.5 3.78 3.87. 3.97 3.7 3.5 3.5 3. 3.8 3. 3.5 3.7 China..9.3.39.5.53.37.5.57.55.5.8.53.59.8.5.7.7 Egypt 7.8 7.7 7.8 7.88 8. 8.87 7.9 7.83 7.83 7.8 8.7 8.87 8.8 8.87 8.87 8.87 8.88 8.88 India.3..97 5.9 7.5.9.5.5 7.3 8..95.9.93 7.9 7.8.9.7.8 Russia 38.58.3 3..7 7.8 5.8 5. 7.9 77.3 77.3 9.93.5 5.9 5..3.93.8.3 South Africa.85.77 3.3. 5.83 5.. 5..3 5.79 5.39. 5.3 5.5. 3.79. 3.8 Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate (index)..7. 8..3 7.5 8.3 9..8.7 8..5 7.8 8. 8.9 7.8 8. 9.5 Table E: Commodity Prices 5 5 MRV 5 Q3 Q Q Q Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Energy 8 5 3 5 3 5 55 8 7 5 57 59 57 58 58 58 Non-energy 97 8 8 78 7 8 77 7 75 7 78 8 8 83 8 8 8 8 Agriculture 3 89 88 8 85 9 8 85 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 9 9 Metals and minerals 88 8 5 59 59 57 5 59 3 5 5 59 Memo items: Crude oil, average ($/bbl) 9 5 8 33 5 3 37 3 3 37 8 5 5 5 Gold ($/toz) 7 8 8 7 98 5 7 337 3 37 35 Baltic Dry Index 3 7 975 7 33 3 58 5 39 37 39 8 3 8 77 75 8 89