Dynamic Models of Infectious Diseases

Dynamic Models of Infectious Diseases

V. Sree Hari Rao Editors Ravi Durvasula Dynamic Models of Infectious Diseases Volume 1: Vector-Borne Diseases

Editors V. Sree Hari Rao Foundation for Scientific Research and Technology Jawaharlal Nehru Technological University Hyderabad, AP, India Ravi Durvasula Raymond G. Murphy VA Medical Centre University of New Mexico School of Medicine Albuquerque, NM, USA ISBN 978-1-4614-3960-8 ISBN 978-1-4614-3961-5 (ebook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-3961-5 Springer New York Heidelberg Dordrecht London Library of Congress Control Number: 2012939115 Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, speci fi cally the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on micro fi lms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. Exempted from this legal reservation are brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis or material supplied speci fi cally for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the Copyright Law of the Publisher s location, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Permissions for use may be obtained through RightsLink at the Copyright Clearance Center. Violations are liable to prosecution under the respective Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a speci fi c statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. While the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication, neither the authors nor the editors nor the publisher can accept any legal responsibility for any errors or omissions that may be made. The publisher makes no warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)

Preface Despite great advances in public health worldwide, insect vector-borne infectious diseases remain a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Diseases that are transmitted by arthropods such as mosquitoes, sand fl ies, fl eas, and ticks affect hundreds of millions of people and account for nearly three million deaths per year globally. Additionally, the impact of insect-transmitted diseases to agriculture exceeds $100 billion annually. Newly emerging patterns of certain vector-borne diseases such as malaria, West Nile encephalitis, tick-borne diseases, and dengue fever underscore the impact of arthropod-borne illnesses. Rapidly expanding patterns of global travel and commerce, coupled with evolution of pathogen resistance, have fueled deadly epidemics of vector-borne diseases in the past 5 years that have affected millions around the world. Currently, the best methods for control of many insect-borne diseases involve the use of chemical pesticides. Such campaigns may, in the short term, yield spectacular results. Malaria was nearly eliminated from the Indian subcontinent; Chagas disease is rapidly being vanquished in some sections of Central and South America. However, insecticide campaigns are hampered in several ways. Environmental toxicity and adverse effects on human health limit the use of many chemical pesticides. Emergence of insect resistance to a wide variety of insecticides has greatly undermined their ef fi cacy. The cost of repeated applications of pesticides is often prohibitive. Therefore, the wholesale elimination of insect pests is neither practical nor probable. Control of these scourges requires integrated efforts directed at advanced surveillance and epidemiology, vector control through novel genetic strategies, epidemic modeling, and greater understanding of human susceptibility to disease. In almost all branches of science, research questions are answered from planned repeated experiments. But for infectious diseases, conducting experiments in communities is not ethical or possible. The retrospect epidemiological data may not help predict the future trends of the disease. Realistic mathematical models of the transmission of infectious diseases add a new dimension of information to assist in public health policy for control of the disease. These models provide a dynamic picture of disease transmission and are useful to predict the future trends of the disease. All models require realistic details and realistic parameter values. For practitioners in v

vi Preface this fi eld to make a real-world difference and in fl uence public health policy, medical experts are to be involved to ensure the realism of model structure and estimation of key parameters. Also, intelligent methods based on IT tools can help study various disease patterns. In Volume 1 of Dynamic Models of Infectious Diseases, we have assembled eight chapters from highly acclaimed international scientists to address several of the major insect vector-borne diseases. A diverse and interdisciplinary group of authors has been selected with expertise in clinical infectious diseases, epidemiology, molecular biology, human genetics, and mathematical modeling. Indeed, we believe this collection of chapters is unique and should provide a valuable perspective to a wide audience. Though diverse in approach, all the authors address critical elements of disease control. Myriad tools, whether in the realm of molecular engineering, genomic analysis, predictive modeling, or information technology to improve surveillance, are presented in this collection to provide the reader with a current understanding of research methods directed at control of vectorborne diseases. Dengue, a global vector-borne disease with propensity for explosive outbreaks, is the subject of Chap. 1 by V. Sree Hari Rao and M. Naresh Kumar. This chapter focuses on evolving tools of mathematical modeling as strategies for mitigation of dengue epidemics. The authors present new predictive models aimed at better characterization of human susceptibility and disease severity. In Chap. 2, Maia Martcheva and Olivia Prosper have presented a detailed discussion on the dynamic mathematical modeling activity of the vector-borne diseases. This work demonstrates that models involving time delays are best suited for a more realistic description of different types of dynamical behaviors associated with the transmission of these diseases. West Nile virus, an emerging vector-borne disease, is the focus of Chap. 3 by Eleanor Deardorff and Gregory Ebel. The spread of West Nile virus by invading species of Culex mosquitoes in the USA has brought much attention to the study of vector-borne diseases, by illustrating the potential of these illnesses to impact highly industrialized regions of the world. The authors discuss the current state of the epidemic in the USA and critical aspects of vector and host biology that determines effectiveness of control measures. Chapters 4 and 5, by Dr. Ravi Durvasula and colleagues, address leishmaniasis and Chagas disease, two vector-borne disease complexes with global impact. Current epidemiology of these diseases and the latest therapeutic approaches are outlined. Evolving paratransgenic strategies from the Durvasula Laboratory aimed at reducing competence of insect vectors to transmit pathogens are presented with a perspective of identifying novel methods for control of disease transmission. Information technology methodologies for monitoring and control of vectorborne diseases in India provide fresh perspectives on two devastating diseases, fi lariasis and Japanese encephalitis, in Chaps. 6 and 7 by U. Suryanarayana Murty et al. Particular focus is given to the impact of these conditions on the Indian subcontinent and novel modeling strategies that have resulted in IT-based tools for surveillance and control of both vectors and disease transmission.

Preface vii Finally, in Chap. 8, the most devastating of insect vector-borne diseases, malaria, is discussed by D.J. Perkins et al. The Perkins Laboratory is widely recognized as a leader in the study of human genetic susceptibility to deadly complications of malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum. In this chapter, current research that dissects the immunological and human genetic underpinnings of malarial infection, with particular emphasis on severe malarial anemia, is reviewed with the aim of better understanding and controlling the impact of this disease in sub-saharan Africa. We have immense pleasure in expressing our appreciation to all those who have directly or indirectly in fl uenced this work. Speci fi cally, we thank all the chapter contributors and the reviewers who untiringly responded to our request by providing useful and thought-provoking reviews. We are grateful to the editorial staff at Springer, New York for their interest, initiative and enthusiasm in bringing out this publication. In particular our special thanks go to Mrs. Melanie Tucker, Editor, and Ms. Meredith Clinton, Assistant Editor, Springer Science + Business Media, New York for their very ef fi cient handling of this manuscript. The fi rst author (VSHR) gratefully acknowledges the research support received from the Foundation for Scienti fi c Research and Technological Innovation (FSRTI) a constituent division of Sri Vadrevu Seshagiri Rao Memorial Charitable Trust, Hyderabad, India. The second author (RVD) acknowledges the continued research support provided by the National Institutes of Health (USA) and the United States Department of Agriculture. Additionally, the support provided by The University of New Mexico School of Medicine and The Raymond G. Murphy Veterans Administration Hospital, both located in Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA, is gratefully acknowledged. Hyderabad, AP, India Albuquerque, NM, USA V. Sree Hari Rao Ravi Durvasula

Contents 1 Predictive Dynamics: Modeling for Virological Surveillance and Clinical Management of Dengue... 1 V. Sree Hari Rao and M. Naresh Kumar 2 Unstable Dynamics of Vector-Borne Diseases: Modeling Through Delay-Differential Equations... 43 Maia Martcheva and Olivia Prosper 3 West Nile Virus: 12 Years in North America... 77 Eleanor Deardorff and Gregory D. Ebel 4 Leishmaniasis: An Update on a Neglected Tropical Disease... 95 Amber Read, Ivy Hurwitz, and Ravi Durvasula 5 Chagas Disease: Global Epidemiology and Evolving Methods for Control... 139 Nicole Klein, Ivy Hurwitz, and Ravi Durvasula 6 Integrated Disease Management of Japanese Encephalitis in India... 169 U. Suryanarayana Murty and M. Srinivasa Rao 7 Filaria Monitoring Visualization System: A New Dimension for Integrated Control of Lymphatic Filariasis... 205 U. Suryanarayana Murty and Jianhong Wu 8 The Global Burden of Severe Falciparum Malaria: An Immunological and Genetic Perspective on Pathogenesis... 231 Douglas J. Perkins, Tom Were, Samuel Anyona, James B. Hittner, Prakasha Kempaiah, Gregory C. Davenport, and John Michael Ong echa Index... 285 ix

Contributors Samuel Anyona Center for Global Health, Department of Internal Medicine, University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque, NM, USA Gregory C. Davenport Center for Global Health, Department of Internal Medicine, University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque, NM, USA Laboratories of Parasitic and Viral Diseases, Centre for Global Health Research, University of New Mexico/Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya Eleanor Deardorff Department of Pathology, University of New Mexico School of Medicine, Albuquerque, NM, USA Ravi Durvasula Center for Global Health, University of New Mexico School of Medicine, Albuquerque, NM, USA Gregory D. Ebel Department of Pathology, University of New Mexico School of Medicine, Albuquerque, NM, USA James B. Hittner Center for Global Health, Department of Internal Medicine, University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque, NM, USA Department of Psychology, College of Charleston, Charleston, SC, USA Ivy Hurwitz Center for Global Health, University of New Mexico School of Medicine, Albuquerque, NM, USA Prakasha Kempaiah Center for Global Health, Department of Internal Medicine, University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque, NM, USA Laboratories of Parasitic and Viral Diseases, Centre for Global Health Research, University of New Mexico/Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya Nicole Klein Center for Global Health, University of New Mexico School of Medicine, Albuquerque, NM, USA M. Naresh Kumar Software and Database Systems Group, National Remote Sensing Center (ISRO), Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India xi

xii Contributors Maia Martcheva Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA U. Suryanarayana Murty Biology Division, Indian Institute of Chemical Technology (CSIR) Govt. India, Tarnaka, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India John Michael Ong echa Laboratories of Parasitic and Viral Diseases, Centre for Global Health Research, University of New Mexico/Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya Douglas J. Perkins Center for Global Health, Department of Internal Medicine, University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque, NM, USA Laboratories of Parasitic and Viral Diseases, Centre for Global Health Research, University of New Mexico/Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya Olivia Prosper Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA Amber Read Center for Global Health, University of New Mexico School of Medicine, Albuquerque, NM, USA V. Sree Hari Rao Department of Mathematics, Jawaharlal Nehru Technological University, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India M. Srinivasa Rao Biology Division, Indian Institute of Chemical Technology (CSIR) Govt. India, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India Tom Were Laboratories of Parasitic and Viral Diseases, Centre for Global Health Research, University of New Mexico/Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya Department of Pathology, School of Health Sciences, Kenyatta University, Nairobi, Kenya Jianhong Wu Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Centre for Disease Modeling York University, Toronto, Canada