Sheep and Goats ISSN: 949-6 Released January 3, 208, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). January Sheep and Lambs Inventory Down Slightly All sheep and lambs inventory in the United States on January, 208 totaled 5.23 million head, down slightly from 207. Breeding sheep inventory at 3.83 million head on January, 208, decreased percent from 3.88 million head on January, 207. Ewes one year old and older, at million head, were percent below last year. Market sheep and lambs on January, 208 totaled.40 million head, up 2 percent from January, 207. Market lambs comprised 94 percent of the total market inventory. Market sheep comprised the remaining 6 percent of total market inventory. The 207 lamb crop of 3.20 million head was down 2 percent from 206. The 207 lambing rate was 05 lambs per ewes one year old and older on January, 207, unchanged from 206. Shorn wool production in the United States during 207 was 24.7 million pounds, down 5 percent from 206. Sheep and lambs shorn totaled 3.44 million head, down 4 percent from 206. The average price paid for wool sold in 207 was $.47 per pound for a total value of 36.4 million dollars, down 3 percent from 37.7 million dollars in 206. Sheep death loss during 207 totaled 23 thousand head, down 2 percent from 206. Lamb death loss decreased 2 percent from 373 thousand head to 367 thousand head in 207. January All Goats and Kids Inventory Down Percent All goats and kids inventory in the United States on January, 208 totaled 2.62 million head, down percent from 207. Breeding goat inventory totaled 2.6 million head, down slightly from 207. Does one year old and older, at.60 million head, were percent below last year's number. Market goats and kids totaled 459 thousand head, down 2 percent from a year ago. Kid crop for 207 totaled.64 million head for all goats, down slightly from 206. Meat and all other goats totaled million head on January, 208, down percent from 207. Milk goat inventory was 380 thousand head, up 2 percent from January, 207, while Angora goats were down 7 percent, totaling 42 thousand head. Mohair production in the United States during 207 was 725 thousand pounds. Goats and kids clipped totaled 33 thousand head. Average weight per clip was 5.5 pounds. Mohair price was $0 per pound with a value of 3.62 million dollars. Sheep and Goats Revisions All sheep and goats inventory and lamb and kid crop estimates for January, 207, were reviewed using official slaughter, import and export data, and the relationship of new survey information to the prior surveys. No revisions were made to goats and kids inventory or kid crop at the United States level. A revision of less than percent was made to sheep and lambs inventory and no change was made to the lamb crop. State level estimates were reviewed and changes were made to reallocate inventory estimates to the United States total.
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Contents Sheep and Lambs Inventory by Class United States: January, 207 and 208... 4 All Sheep and Lambs Inventory United States: January... 4 Wool Production, Price, and Value United States: 206 and 207... 4 Sheep and Lambs Inventory by Class States and United States: January, 207 and 208... 5 Breeding Sheep and Lambs Inventory by Class States and United States: January, 207 and 208... 6 Lamb Crop States and United States: 206 and 207... 7 Market Sheep and Lambs Inventory by Weight Group States and United States: January, 207... 8 Market Sheep and Lambs Inventory by Weight Group States and United States: January, 208... 9 Sheep and Lambs Farm Slaughter and Death Loss States and United States: 206 and 207... 0 Wool Production States and United States: 206 and 207... Wool Price and Value States and United States: 206 and 207... 2 Goats and Kids Inventory by Class United States: January, 207 and 208... 3 All Goats and Kids Inventory by Class United States: January... 3 Angora Goats and Kids Inventory by Class United States: January, 207 and 208... 4 Milk Goats and Kids Inventory by Class United States: January, 207 and 208... 4 Meat and Other Goats and Kids Inventory by Class United States: January, 207 and 208... 4 Angora Goats and Kids Inventory States and United States: January, 207 and 208... 5 Mohair Production, Price, and Value States and United States: 206 and 207... 5 Milk Goats and Kids Inventory States and United States: January, 207 and 208... 6 Meat and Other Goats and Kids Inventory States and United States: January, 207 and 208... 7 Statistical Methodology... 8 Reliability of January Sheep and Lambs Estimates... 9 Information Contacts... 9 Sheep and Goats (January 208) 3
Sheep and Lambs Inventory by Class United States: January, 207 and 208 Class 207 208 All sheep and lambs... 208 as percent of 207 (,000 head) (,000 head) (percent) 5,250.0 5,2 Breeding sheep and lambs... 3,87 3,8 Replacement lambs under one year old... 660.0 6 Ewes - one year old and older... 3,0 3,00 Rams - one year old and older... Market sheep and lambs...,37,400.0 All Sheep and Lambs Inventory United States: January Thousand head 7,000 6,000 Total Breeding Market 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000,000 2004 2006 2008 200 202 204 206 208 Wool Production, Price, and Value United States: 206 and 207 Year 206... 207... Sheep shorn Weight per fleece Shorn wool production Price per pound Value (,000 head) (pounds) (,000 pounds) (dollars) (,000 dollars) 3,585 3,440 Includes shearing at commercial feeding yards. 7.3 7.2 26,050 24,700.45.47 37,72 36,424 4 Sheep and Goats (January 208)
Sheep and Lambs Inventory by Class States and United States: January, 207 and 208 State Arizona... California... Colorado... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Michigan... All sheep and lambs Total breeding Total market 207 208 208 as percent of 207 207 208 207 208 (,000 head) (,000 head) (percent) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) 600.0 4 250.0 5 7 6 4 8 5 4 2 5 6 6 50.0 80.0 96 06 92 94 04 94 9 3 200.0 8 8 3.0 80.0 4 3 5 2 2 6 2 0.0 2 3 2 250.0 50.0 50.0.0 2 Minnesota... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New England... New Mexico... New York... North Carolina... North Dakota... 90.0 2 8 6 9 80.0 6 90.0 2 80.0 9 8 98 96 97 06 83 06 200.0 5 8 6 5 90.0.0 6 5 3 80.0 4 3 0.0 40.0 Ohio... Oklahoma... Oregon... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Tennessee... Texas... Utah... Virginia... Washington... 4 9 250.0 27 80.0 4 5 6 9 260.0 750.0 27 7 3 97 03 04 06 94 94 9 2 7 9 5 2 3.0 4 7 200.0 600.0 250.0 5 3 0.0 5 40.0 2 60.0 50.0 0.0 West Virginia... Wisconsin... Wyoming... 3 7 360.0 3 7 3 03 96 2 6 27 2 6 260.0 8 8 Other States 2... 4 98 3 United States... 5,250.0 5,2 3,87 New England includes Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. 2 3,8,37,400.0 Sheep and Goats (January 208) 5
Breeding Sheep and Lambs Inventory by Class States and United States: January, 207 and 208 State Arizona... California... Colorado... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Michigan... Ewes Breeding sheep Rams Replacement lambs Total breeding sheep and lambs 207 208 207 208 207 208 207 208 (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) 6 27 60.0 3 3.0 3 4 6 260.0 5 3 3 3 3 0.0 0.0 2 3 9 3 200.0 8 8 3.0 80.0 4 3 5 Minnesota... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New England... New Mexico... New York... North Carolina... North Dakota... 7 5 5 2 5 4 7 50.0 5 3 3 0.0 3 200.0 5 8 6 5 90.0.0 6 5 3 80.0 4 Ohio... Oklahoma... Oregon... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Tennessee... Texas... Utah... Virginia... Washington... 2 0.0 5 2 440.0 20 4 2 7 9 60.0 2 46 200.0 2 3 3.0 3.0 4.0 4 9 2 7 9 5 2 3.0 4 7 200.0 600.0 250.0 5 3 West Virginia... Wisconsin... Wyoming... 2 4 2 2 4.0.0 2 6 27 2 6 260.0 Other States 2... 8 8 2 United States... 3,0 3,00 660.0 New England includes Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. 2 6 3,87 3,8 6 Sheep and Goats (January 208)
Lamb Crop States and United States: 206 and 207 State Arizona... California... Colorado... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Michigan... Ewes year and older January Lambs per ewes January Lamb crop 206 207 206 207 206 207 207 as percent of 206 (,000 head) (,000 head) (number) (number) (,000 head) (,000 head) (percent) 26 8 3.0 3 4 6 27 60.0 3 3.0 3 4 63 92 98 0 8 2 25 22 5 9 60 85 6 2 9 23 2 9 7 2 80.0 60.0 40.0 4 50.0 23 8 3 4 9 96 03 97 93 08 92 98 92 98 Minnesota... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New England 2... New Mexico... New York... North Carolina... North Dakota... 60.0 5 40.0 5 50.0 4 7 5 5 2 5 4 29 23 9 8 05 6 8 20 6 25 27 9 2 79 2 76 4 7 90.0 7 90.0 6 4 2 4 60.0 90.0 90.0 3 2 5 4 08 8 96 97 96 Ohio... Oklahoma... Oregon... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Tennessee... Texas... Utah... Virginia... Washington... 7 2 0.0 5 4 50.0 2 0.0 5 2 440.0 20 4 2 2 4 20 0 2 20 76 07 6 6 26 4 4 4 23 2 82 2 20 07 8 6.0 3 340.0 2 5 3 8 6 90.0 3 360.0 2 5 03 97 97 06 83 West Virginia... Wisconsin... Wyoming... 2 4 2 4 2 7 22 4 7 9 04 2 60.0 2 2 5 23 96 96 Other States 3... 9 8 8 9 7 7 03 United States... 3,0 3,0 Lamb crop is defined as lambs born in the Eastern States and lambs docked or branded in the Western States. 2 New England includes Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. 3 05 05 3,250.0 3,200.0 98 Sheep and Goats (January 208) 7
Market Sheep and Lambs Inventory by Weight Group States and United States: January, 207 State Arizona... California... Colorado... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Michigan... Under 65 pounds 65-84 pounds Market lambs 85-05 pounds Over 05 pounds Total Market sheep Total market sheep and lambs (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) 8.5 4.5.0 5.0.0.5.5 80.0.0.0 0.5 2 260.0 2 6 5 9.5 2 0.0.0.0.0.0 0.5 2 2 6 2 0.0 2 Minnesota... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New England... New Mexico... New York... North Carolina... North Dakota... 2.3.0 2.8 2..0.5.4.0 8.5.0 2.7.0 0.5 3.5.8.0 0.4 3 2.0.0.0.0.0.0.0 3 0.0 Ohio... Oklahoma... Oregon... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Tennessee... Texas... Utah... Virginia... Washington... 6.5 0.0 80.0.0.3.0 5.5 0.4 0.0.0.0 7.5.0 0.3.0.0 2 9.5 4.0 0.5.0 0.0.0.0 0.0 5 40.0 West Virginia... Wisconsin... Wyoming....0.5 4 0.5 2 8 -.0 8 Other States 2... 4.8 8.3 6.4 3 3 United States... 350.0 8 300.0 46 - Represents zero. New England includes Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. 2,300.0 7,37 8 Sheep and Goats (January 208)
Market Sheep and Lambs Inventory by Weight Group States and United States: January, 208 State Arizona... California... Colorado... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Michigan... Under 65 pounds 65-84 pounds Market lambs 85-05 pounds Over 05 pounds Total Market sheep Total market sheep and lambs (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) 0.0 0 3.5 8.5 5.2 2.0.7 2.8 6 0.0.0.0 2.8.5 6 5.5.0 0.5 3 2 24 4 4 2 0.0 0.0.0.0.0 3 2 250.0 50.0 50.0.0 2 Minnesota... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New England... New Mexico... New York... North Carolina... North Dakota....0 3..0 2.2 3..9.0.4.0 2.4.0 0.6.0 4.6.4.0 0.3 3 2.0.0.0.0.0.0 40.0 Ohio... Oklahoma... Oregon... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Tennessee... Texas... Utah... Virginia... Washington... 4.5 8 7.5.5.5 4.5.5 0.0 0.6 0.0.5.0 2.0 2 0.4.0 2.0 4 5 40.0.0.0.0.0 0.0.0.0 2 60.0 50.0 0.0 West Virginia... Wisconsin... Wyoming....0.0.0 3.0.0.0.0 8 Other States 2... 3.9 4.7 7. 4.3 United States... 3 20 47 New England includes Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. 2,3 80.0,400.0 Sheep and Goats (January 208) 9
Sheep and Lambs Farm Slaughter and Death Loss States and United States: 206 and 207 State Arizona... California... Colorado... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Michigan... Farm slaughter Sheep Deaths Lambs 206 207 206 207 206 207 (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) 4.3 2.7 2.6 2. 3.3.5 2.3 0.9 4.6 2.8 2.6 2. 3.2.5 2.3. 7.5.0 2.3 5.5 5.5 Minnesota... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New England 2... New Mexico... New York... North Carolina... North Dakota... 3..0.9 0.5.4 5.4 2.3 0.4 0.5 3...9 0.7.4 5.5 2.3 0.6 0.7 6.5.0 3.5.5 5.5 3.5.0.0 3.7.4.0 0.0 8.5 0.0 0.0 Ohio... Oklahoma... Oregon... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Tennessee... Texas... Utah... Virginia... Washington... 4..5.2. 6. 2.6 6. 4..5.2. 6. 2.6 6. 3.0 3.5 6.0 5.5 West Virginia... Wisconsin... Wyoming... 0.9.5.0.5 9.5 0.0 Other States 3... 6.5 6.4.5.6 United States... 94.8 96. 2 Excludes custom slaughter for farmers at commercial establishments. 2 New England includes Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. 3 2 37 36 0 Sheep and Goats (January 208)
Wool Production States and United States: 206 and 207 State Arizona... California... Colorado... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Michigan... Sheep shorn Weight per fleece Production 206 207 206 207 206 207 (,000 head) (,000 head) (pounds) (pounds) (,000 pounds) (,000 pounds).0 4 30.0 3 6.0 6 90.0 400.0 80.0 3 40.0.0 60.0 6.4 6.7 7.5 8.2 6. 6.3 5.5 6.6 6.4 6.8 6.3 6.8 8.9 6. 6.3 5.6 6.6 6.8 60 2,800 2,300,600 200 220 900 285 70 405 60 2,500 2,,600 200 225 780 285 75 360 Minnesota... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New England... New Mexico... New York... North Carolina... North Dakota... 2 200.0 6 4 8 5 5 4.0 6 4 6 6.2 8.8 6.7 7.9 5.8 7.3 6.3 7. 9.3 6.8 7.6 6.3 5.8 790 260,800 450 420 200 700 30 35 430 700 265,750 440 430 20 65 300 35 435 Ohio... Oklahoma... Oregon... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Tennessee... Texas... Utah... Virginia... Washington... 7 4 2 260.0 2 80.0 4 23 240.0 2 5.9 5.5 6.3 6.9 7.6 5.6 6.9 9.4 5.6 8. 6. 5.6 6.2 6.7 7.6 5.5 6.7 9.4 5.7 8.4 470 05 900 30,750,800 2,300 40 250 490 800 35,780 05,600 2,300 20 260 West Virginia... Wisconsin... Wyoming... 280.0 50.0 2 6.7 8.6 5.8 6.6 8. 340 2,400 05 330 2,200 Other States 2... 50.0 6. 300 280 United States... 3,58 3,440.0 New England includes Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. 2 7.3 7.2 26,050 24,700 Sheep and Goats (January 208)
Wool Price and Value States and United States: 206 and 207 [United States value may not add due to rounding] State Arizona... California... Colorado... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Michigan... Price per pound Value 206 207 206 207 (dollars) (dollars) (,000 dollars) (,000 dollars).00.50.70.59 0.79 0.50 0.56 0.89 0.90 0.7 0.90.55.80.70 0.70 0.60 0.52 0.85 0.90 0.60 60 4,200 3,90 2,544 58 0 504 254 63 288 549 3,875 3,780 2,720 40 35 406 242 68 26 Minnesota... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New England 2... New Mexico... New York... North Carolina... North Dakota... 0.62 0.88.90 0.94 0 0.85.50 0.70.50.3 0.60 0.86.90 0.79 0 0.90.60 0.90.0.09 490 229 3,420 423 840 70,050 27 53 486 420 228 3,325 348 860 89 984 270 39 474 Ohio... Oklahoma... Oregon... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Tennessee... Texas... Utah... Virginia... Washington... 0.53 0.80.38 0.60.43 0.90.75.80.25 0.50 0.80.65 0.60.49 0.90.63.80.45.90 249 84,242 86 2,503 90 3,50 4,40 75 525 245 80,320 89 2,652 2,608 4,40 74 494 West Virginia... Wisconsin... Wyoming....25 0.70.90.45 0.65 0 25 238 4,560 52 25 4,400 Other States 3....45.40 435 392 United States... Production multiplied by marketing year average price. United States value is the summation of State values. 2 New England includes Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. 3.45.47 37,72 36,424 2 Sheep and Goats (January 208)
Goats and Kids Inventory by Class United States: January, 207 and 208 Class 207 208 208 as percent of 207 (head) (head) (percent) All goats and kids... 2,640,000 2,620,000 All, breeding goats... Replacement kids - under one year... Does - one year old and older... Bucks - one year old and older... 2,7,000 393,000,64,000 64,000 2,6,000 394,000,604,000 63,000 All, market goats and kids... 469,000 459,000 98 Kid crop...,64,000,637,000 Kid crop refers to kids born the previous year. All Goats and Kids Inventory by Class United States: January Thousand head 3,500 3,000 Angora Milk Meat All 2,500 2,000,500,000 500 0 204 205 206 207 208 Sheep and Goats (January 208) 3
Angora Goats and Kids Inventory by Class United States: January, 207 and 208 Class 207 208 Angora goats and kids... 208 as percent of 207 (head) (head) (percent) 52,000 42,000 93 Angora, breeding goats... Replacement kids - under one year... Does - one year old and older... Bucks - one year old and older... 3,000 20,000 04,000 7,000 23,000 9,000 98,000 6,000 94 94 86 Angora, market goats and kids... 2,000 9,000 90 Kid crop... Kid crop refers to kids born the previous year. 76,000 72,000 Milk Goats and Kids Inventory by Class United States: January, 207 and 208 Class 207 208 Milk goats and kids... 208 as percent of 207 (head) (head) (percent) 373,000 380,000 Milk, breeding goats... Replacement kids - under one year... Does - one year old and older... Bucks - one year old and older... 334,000 7,000 239,000 24,000 340,000 72,000 243,000 25,000 0 04 Milk, market goats and kids... 39,000 40,000 03 Kid crop... Kid crop refers to kids born the previous year. 260,000 265,000 Meat and Other Goats and Kids Inventory by Class United States: January, 207 and 208 Class 207 208 Meat and other goats and kids... 208 as percent of 207 (head) (head) (percent) 2,5,000 2,098,000 Meat and other, breeding goats... Replacement kids - under one year... Does - one year old and older... Bucks - one year old and older...,706,000 302,000,27,000 33,000,698,000 303,000,263,000 32,000 Meat and other, market goats and kids... 409,000 400,000 98 Kid crop... Kid crop refers to kids born the previous year.,305,000,300,000 4 Sheep and Goats (January 208)
Angora Goats and Kids Inventory States and United States: January, 207 and 208 State 207 208 Arizona... California... New Mexico... Texas... 208 as percent of 207 (head) (head) (percent) 35,000 3,400 0,500 80,000 33,000 3,500 9,500 75,000 94 03 90 94 Other States... 23, 2,000 9 United States... 52,000 42,000 93 Mohair Production, Price, and Value States and United States: 206 and 207 [United States value may not add due to rounding] State Arizona... California... New Mexico... Texas... Goats clipped Average clip per goat Production Price per pound Value 206 207 206 207 206 207 206 207 206 207 (head) (head) (pounds) (pounds) (,000 pounds) (,000 pounds) (dollars) (dollars) (,000 dollars) (,000 dollars) 30,000 2,000 8,000 80,000 28,000 2,000 7,000 77,000 4.2 3.8 6.4 3.8 4.3 6. 25 0 30 50 05 0 30 470.40 0.20 0.20 0.40 6.60 75 60 36 3,060 26 60 42 3, Other States 2.. 2,000 9,000 5.8 25 0 5 2.65 39 292 United States... 4,000 33,000 5.7 Production multiplied by marketing year average price. United States value is summation of State values. 2 5.5 800 725 4.56 0 3,650 3,622 Sheep and Goats (January 208) 5
Milk Goats and Kids Inventory States and United States: January, 207 and 208 State 207 208 Alabama... Arkansas... California... Colorado... Florida... Georgia... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... 208 as percent of 207 (head) (head) (percent) 3,900 4,500 4,000 9,000 0,000 3,500 4,200 6,000,000 30,500 3,500 4,000 40,000 9,000 0,000 3,800 4,500 6,000,000 3,000 90 89 98 09 07 Kansas... Kentucky... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... New England... New York... North Carolina... Ohio... 4,700 5,500 2,500 2,000 0,300 3,700 4,200 3,700 6,400 0,000 4,400 6,000,500 4,000 0,500 3,500 4,600 3,000 7,000 0,500 94 09 92 7 03 09 05 Oklahoma... Oregon... Pennsylvania... South Carolina... Tennessee... Texas... Virginia... Washington... Wisconsin... 6,000 2,600 5,000 3,000 7,000 22,000 6,000 7,500 44,000 7,000 3,000 5,000 3,500 7,500 26,000 5,500 7,000 47,000 7 03 7 07 8 92 93 07 Other States 2... 33,300 30,700 92 United States... 373,000 New England includes Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. 2 380,000 6 Sheep and Goats (January 208)
Meat and Other Goats and Kids Inventory States and United States: January, 207 and 208 State 207 208 Alabama... Arizona... Arkansas... California... Colorado... Florida... Georgia... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... 208 as percent of 207 (head) (head) (percent) 45,000 27,000 36,000 87,000 25,000 44,000 67,000 8,000 33,000 32,000 47,000 27,000 33,000 80,000 23,000 45,000 70,000 9,000 36,000 35,000 04 92 92 92 04 06 09 09 Kansas... Kentucky... Louisiana... Minnesota... Mississippi... Missouri... New York... North Carolina... Ohio... Oklahoma... 46,000 56,000 8,000 22,000 9,000 75,000 7,000 50,000 42,000 92,000 4,000 57,000 6,000 24,000 9,000 7,500 5,500 47,000 44,000 82,000 89 89 09 9 94 05 89 Oregon... Pennsylvania... South Carolina... Tennessee... Texas... Virginia... Washington... West Virginia... 27,000 37,000 32,000 0,000 790,000 45,000 20,000 2,000 29,000 38,000 33,500 04,000 7,000 4,000 2,000 2,500 07 03 05 0 9 05 Other States... 82,000 83,000 0 United States... 2,5,000 2,098,000 Sheep and Goats (January 208) 7
Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: A random sample of United States producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all sheep and goat producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. About 2,800 operators were contacted during the first half of January by mail, telephone and face-to-face personal interview and 69 percent of the reports were usable. Regardless of when operators responded, they were asked to report inventories as of January. Estimating Procedures: These sheep and goat estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness and with estimates from past years. A projected balance sheet for calendar year 207 was also used. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds estimates of births and imports, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared with the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve the current estimate. Previous year estimates are subject to revision when current estimates are made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture s five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations raising sheep and goats are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors, such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected sheep items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between the first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for sheep and lambs inventory estimates over the past 0 years is 0.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 5.23 million head by more than 0.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 0 that the difference will not exceed.4 percent. The Root Mean Square Error for sheep shorn over the past 0 years is.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 3.44 million head by more than.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 0 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent. Also shown in the table is a 0-year record showing the range between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate. Using estimates for All Sheep and Lambs as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 0 years have averaged 32,000 head, ranging from 0 to 05,000 head. The initial inventory estimate of All Sheep and Lambs has been below the latest estimate 4 times and above the latest estimate 4 times in the last 0 years. For Sheep and Lambs Shorn, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 0 years have averaged 24,000 head, ranging from 0 to 40,000 head. The initial inventory estimate of Sheep and Lambs Shorn has been below the latest estimate 0 times and above 6 times in the last 0 years. 8 Sheep and Goats (January 208)
Reliability of January Sheep and Lambs Estimates [Based on data for the past ten years] Item Root mean square error 90 percent confidence level Difference between first and latest estimate Average Smallest Largest Below latest Years Above latest (percent) (percent) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (number) (number) All sheep and lambs... 0.8.4 32 0 05 4 4 Breeding sheep... 0.7.3 20 0 74 3 5 Lamb crop... 2.6 4.8 56 0 65 6 Sheep shorn....2 2.3 24 0 40 0 6 (percent) (percent) (,000 pounds) (,000 pounds) (,000 pounds) (number) (number) Wool production....0.9 40 0 870 7 Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen Livestock Slaughter... (202) 720-3240 Donnie Fike Dairy Products... (202) 690-3236 Heidi Gleich Cattle, Cattle on Feed... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller Milk Production and Milk Cows... (202) 720-3278 Seth Riggins Hogs and Pigs... (202) 720-306 Vacant Sheep and Goats... (202) 720-0585 Sheep and Goats (January 208) 9
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