Lower Snake Spring Chinook Existing Populations The Lower Snake Spring Chinook SMU consists of eight populations, seven of which are still in existence (Table 73). Table 73. existence status for the Lower Snake Spring Chinook SMU. Exist Population Description Yes Wenaha Wenaha River basin Yes Wallowa Wallowa River basin, excluding Minam River basin Yes Minam Minam River basin Yes Catherine Catherine Creek and Indian Creek basins No Lookingglass Lookingglass Creek basin (Grande Ronde tributary). Yes Upper Grande Ronde Grande Ronde basin upstream of Willow Creek, but excluding Catherine Creek Yes Imnaha Imnaha River basin excluding Big Sheep Creek Yes Big Sheep Big Sheep Creek basin Habitat Use Distribution The criterion was evaluated based on current and historically accessible areas. Several populations show miles inaccessible. It must be recognized that these estimates are derived at the 1:1, scale and thus will not capture habitat lost in many smaller (1:24,) streams resulting from barriers such as culverts. Habitat lost in smaller streams will vary by population, but is not likely to account for 5% of any population, and thus does not alter assessment outcomes derived using data at the 1:1, scale. Data presented in this report on accessibility and inaccessibility of habitat should be viewed as general approximations of reality and not as a definitive analysis on habitat availability/accessibility. These issues will be more thoroughly addressed through the conservation planning process. Table 74. Habitat accessibility data used in evaluating interim criteria for the Lower Snake Spring Chinook SMU. Population Accessible (miles) Inaccessible (miles) Percent Accessible Wenaha 56 1% Wallowa 11 8 92% Minam 55 1% Catherine 54 1% Lookingglass Extinct population Upper Grande Ronde 13 1% Imnaha 11 1% Big Sheep 49 1% Abundance The abundance criterion for all populations were evaluated based on redd densities from spawning ground surveys in index reaches (Tranquilli et al. 23; pers. comm., Pat Keniry, 1/5/5). Redd densities were adjusted for each population based on the proportion of spawners estimated to be of hatchery origin. Abundance and productivity for this SMU were evaluated based upon full seeding levels because 25% of the 3-year average natural abundance was not an adequate flag of low spawner returns. Construction of the Snake River dams caused Snake spring Chinook levels to drop drastically in the 197s, and returns in the 198s and 199s were critically low. Full seeding levels were Lower Snake Spring Chinook 19
represented by the 75 th percentile of escapements for the period beginning the first year estimates were available (1949-1964) through 1974 (R. Carmichael, personal communication 24). This period encompasses return estimates prior to declines associated with completion of the lower Snake River dams. Hatchery to wild ratios from 1986 to 24 were provided by ODFW (pers. comm., Pat Keniry, 1/5/5). Those data were based on finclip observations on the spawning grounds, scale analysis, and findings from CWT recoveries. For most of the years where data was available, the data to look at percentages of hatchery adults was from carcass recoveries during spawning surveys. Estimates based on carcass recoveries are considered conservative. These recoveries may overestimate the percentages of hatchery fish due to the timing of the surveys later in the season when later spawning hatchery fish are predominant. Annual hatchery fractions prior to 1986 were derived from provisional estimates compiled by ODFW (pers. comm., Jeff Rodgers, 1/13/4, data compiled by E. Tinus and C. Petrosky for NOAA Fisheries). Table 75. Abundance data (redds/mile) used in evaluating interim criteria for the Lower Snake Spring Chinook SMU. Full Seeding 25% of Full Abundance by Return Year # Years >25% Population Level Seeding 2 21 22 23 24 Full Seeding Wenaha 36.2 9.1 8.8 13.1 1.4 11.5 12.5 4 Wallowa 15.5 3.9 2.6 2.3 2.8 1.1 1.1 Minam 1.8 2.7 6.3 9.7 14.3 9.9 1.2 5 Catherine 2.9 5.2.3 2.6 3..7.6 Lookingglass Extinct population Upper Grande Ronde 14.5 3.6 1.3.7 2..9 1.3 Imnaha 35.9 9. 2.9 8.5 8.7 8.7 2.7 Big Sheep a 8.8 2.2..7 2.8 1.4 1. 1 a. Redd densities were not adjusted by the proportion of naturally spawning hatchery fish. Productivity Productivity was estimated using spawner abundance estimates, hatchery composition, and annual age composition. Abundance and hatchery composition data were obtained from sources described above. Age composition data through the 22 return year were provided by ODFW (pers. comm., Jeff Rodgers, 1/13/4, data compiled by E. Tinus and C. Petrosky for NOAA Fisheries). Data from 23 were from non-finclipped fish sampled during spawner surveys and were obtained from Pat Keniry, ODFW (pers. comm., 3/15/4). The 24 age composition data were not yet available so the run reconstruction used the average age composition for the previous five years. Table 76. Productivity estimates used in evaluating interim criteria for the Lower Snake Spring Chinook SMU. Recent Complete Brood Years Productivity (R/S) Population of Below Full Seeding Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Years > 1.2 Wenaha 1995-1999 1. 2.4 2.9 4.4 8.8 4 Wallowa 1995-1999 4.7 2.8 1.3 5..2 4 Minam 1995-1999 1.4 1.4 2.6 5.1 1.8 5 Catherine 1995-1999 1.8 1.2 1.5 3.8.2 4 Lookingglass Extinct population Upper Grande Ronde 1995-1999.1.9.3.6 -- a 1 Imnaha 1995-1999.6.9 1. 2.9.5 1 Big Sheep Insufficient data high hatchery fraction Fail a. There were no parents observed in index reaches for the 1999 brood year, though recruits returned four and five years later. Could not divide by. Lower Snake Spring Chinook 191
Reproductive Independence Data used to estimate the number of natural spawners that were of hatchery origin were described in the Abundance section above. When estimating annual contributions of hatchery fish in years with less than ten scale samples, the percent hatchery spawners was assumed to be the same as the average of the preceding and following year with sufficient data. Exemptions to this method include the Upper Grande Ronde, Minam, and Wenaha populations. The specifics of those exemptions are described in the Population Details section. Table 77. Reproductive independence estimates used in evaluating interim criteria for the Lower Snake spring Chinook SMU. Bold and italicized values indicate that sample size in that year was insufficient for reliable estimate. See methods above for explanation of value derivation. Percent of Spawning Fish of Hatchery Origin Years Population 2 21 22 23 24 <1% Wenaha 4% 11% 4% % 2% 4 Wallowa 3% 19% 52% 47% 69% 1 Minam 1% 13% 2% 2% % 4 Catherine 4% 9% 58% 66% 84% 2 Lookinglass Creek Extinct population Upper Grande Ronde % 2% 2% 13% 94% 3 Imnaha 65% 55% 76% 69% 8% Big Sheep Insufficient data hatchery adults outplanted Fail a a. See Population Details for specifics on failure designation. Hybridization Hybridization has not been identified as an issue for Snake spring Chinook. Population Details Wenaha In several years, sample sizes were insufficient to accurately estimate the percentage of hatchery origin fish on the spawning ground. Examination of years with sufficient data showed that between 1994 and 1996 the proportion of hatchery fish on the spawning ground substantially decreased from the previous ten years. From 1986 to 1995, the average hatchery fraction on the spawning grounds was 74%, following 1995 it averaged only 6%. In years with insufficient data prior to 1995, we assumed 74% of spawners were of hatchery origin and following 1995 we assumed 6% of spawners were of hatchery origin. Wallowa No hatchery composition data were available for this population prior to 1986. Based on the data of Tinus and Petrosky for other populations in this SMU, we assumed that spawners were 1% natural origin prior to 1986. Pat Keniry, ODFW, provided age composition data from 1987-23 based on scale and length analysis. In years where fewer than 2 fish were sampled, we assumed the age composition was the same as the aggregate composition from 1987-23. We also applied the aggregate composition to returns prior to 1987. Minam In several years, sample sizes were insufficient to accurately estimate the percentage of hatchery origin fish on the spawning grounds. Examination of years with sufficient data showed that between 1993 and 1996 the proportion of hatchery fish on the spawning grounds substantially decreased from the previous nine years. From 1986 to 1994, the average hatchery fraction on the spawning grounds was 62%, following 1995 it averaged only 4%. We assumed that in 1994 and Lower Snake Spring Chinook 192
prior years with insufficient observation that 62% of spawners were of hatchery origin, and following 1994, 4% of spawners were of hatchery origin. Upper Grande Ronde Examining fractions of hatchery fish within the naturally-spawning population showed a trend similar to that described above for the Wenaha and Minam populations. From 1986 to 1995, the average percentage of fish on the spawning grounds that were of hatchery origin was 76%, and from 1995-23 the average was 2%. In years with insufficient sample size to estimate the proportion of hatchery spawners on the spawning grounds 76% of spawners were assumed to be of hatchery origin if it was prior to 1995, and 2% for any year between 1996 and 23. Imnaha Information on the contribution of hatchery fish to natural spawning from 1949-22 was provided by ODFW (pers. comm., Jeff Rodgers, 1/13/4, data compiled by E. Tinus and C. Petrosky for NOAA Fisheries). The value for 23 was based on the hatchery to wild fraction of fish observed passing the Imnaha River weir (pers. comm., Pat Keniry, 3/17/4). Big Sheep A long term consistent set of reproductive independence data were not available for this population. However, surplus hatchery adults from the Imnaha weir have been outplanted into the population in recent years, and releases of hatchery presmolts have been made into the subbasin. District biologists believe that greater than 5% of the natural spawning population has been made up of hatchery spawners in recent years. In 22-24 spawning surveys have provided information on finmarked and non-finmarked carcasses observed on the spawning ground. In 22, 18% of 11 fish were hatchery origin. In 23, 3 unclipped fish were observed and six outplanted hatchery fish from the Imnaha were observed. 24 surveys showed no unmarked fish and eight marked outplants from the Imnaha. These observations support the conclusion that the population fails the independence criterion. The productivity criterion was failed because of the high amount of hatchery fish in the natural spawning population. Assessment Conclusions This SMU includes eight populations in tributaries between the mouth of the Snake River and Hells Canyon Dam. Failure to meet three of six interim criteria led to the conclusion that the near-term sustainability of the SMU is at risk. The SMU includes a mixture of populations at varying levels of health depending on the quality of spawning and rearing habitats. All populations have been constrained by Snake and Columbia dam passage and migration conditions. Significant hatchery programs have occurred in Lookingglass Creek (Lower Grande Ronde), the Upper Grande Ronde, Catherine Creek, Lostine River, and the Imnaha River basin. Exist Distribution Abundance Productivity Repr. Ind. Hybridization Percent of Existing Populations Meeting Criteria 2 4 6 8 1 Figure 2. Assessment outcome for each of the six interim criteria with respect to the 8% threshold identified by the NFCP. Lower Snake Spring Chinook 193
5 Wenaha - Snake Spring Chinook Wild Abundance (Redds/mile) 4 3 2 1 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 23 1% 1. Percent Hatchery Spawner 8% 6% 4% 2% % 1974 1978 1982 1986 199 1994 1998 22 Recruits/Spawner 8. 6. 4. 2.. 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 Brood Year The Wenaha population passed each of the six interim criteria. Abundance in the Wenaha was represented by spawning surveys in index reaches. The abundance graph above reflects the results of those spawning surveys adjusted for hatchery-to-wild ratios on the spawning grounds. Abundance was consistently below the criteria until 21. Productivity has generally been less than 1.2. Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Lower Snake Spring Chinook 194
Wallowa Snake Spring Chinook The Wallowa population passed the distribution, productivity, and hybridization criteria, but failed both abundance and reproductive independence. Abundance in the Wallowa was represented by spawning surveys in index reaches. The abundance graph below reflects the results of those spawning surveys adjusted for hatcheryto-wild ratios on the spawning grounds. Returns have been below the criterion threshold since 1985. Wild Abundance (Redds/mile) 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 195 1956 1962 1968 1974 198 1986 1992 1998 24 Percent Hatchery Spawner 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 Recruits/Spawner 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 Brood Year Pass Pass Fail Pass Fail Pass Lower Snake Spring Chinook 195
Minam Snake Spring Chinook The Minam population passed each of the six interim criteria. Abundance in the Minam was represented by spawning surveys in index reaches. The abundance graph below reflects the results of those spawning surveys adjusted for hatchery-to-wild ratios on the spawning grounds. Wild Abundance (Redds/mile) 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1954 196 1966 1972 1978 1984 199 1996 22 Percent Hatchery Spawner 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 1974 1978 1982 1986 199 1994 1998 22 Recruits/Spawner 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 Brood Year Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Lower Snake Spring Chinook 196
Catherine Creek - Snake Spring Chinook 35 Wild Abundance (Redds/mile) 3 25 2 15 1 5 1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 21 Percent Hatchery Spawner 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 1974 1978 1982 1986 199 1994 1998 22 Recruits/Spawner 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 196 1964 1968 1972 1976 198 1984 1988 1992 1996 Brood Year The Catherine Creek population failed the abundance and independence criteria but passed the remaining interim criteria. Abundance in Catherine Creek was represented by spawning surveys in index reaches. The abundance graph to the left reflects the results of those spawning surveys adjusted for hatchery-to-wild ratios on the spawning grounds. Abundance has been below the criterion threshold since 1983. Pass Pass Fail Pass Fail Pass Lower Snake Spring Chinook 197
Lookinglass Snake Spring Chinook The native Lookingglass population is extinct. The weir at Lookingglass Hatchery is operated to deliberately limit access to upstream habitat by spring Chinook for disease management purposes. A total 27% of the historical habitat within the basin is below the Lookinglass Hatchery weir. Significant numbers of hatchery fish return to the Lookingglass Hatchery on Lookingglass Creek. Fail -- -- -- -- -- Lower Snake Spring Chinook 198
Upper Grande Ronde Snake Spring Chinook 25 Wild Abundance (Redds/mile) 2 15 1 5 1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 21 Percent Hatchery Spawner 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 1974 1978 1982 1986 199 1994 1998 22 Recruits/Spawner 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. 1964 1968 1972 1976 198 1984 1988 1992 1996 Brood Year The Upper Grande Ronde population passed three of the interim criteria for existing populations, but failed both the abundance and productivity criteria. Abundance in the upper Grande Ronde was represented by spawning surveys in index reaches. The abundance graph below reflects the results of those spawning surveys adjusted for hatchery-to-wild ratios on the spawning grounds. Pass Pass Fail Fail Pass Pass Lower Snake Spring Chinook 199
Imnaha Snake Spring Chinook The Imnaha population failed the abundance, productivity, and reproductive independence critera. Abundance in the Imnaha was represented by spawning surveys in index reaches. The abundance graph below reflects the results of those spawning surveys adjusted for hatchery-to-wild ratios on the spawning grounds. Hatchery fractions typically have been greater than 5% since 199. High hatchery fractions in the Imnaha result from supplementation objectives of the hatchery program. 8 Wild Abundance (Redds/mile) 6 4 2 1949 1955 1961 1967 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997 23 Percent Hatchery Spawner 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 1974 1978 1982 1986 199 1994 1998 22 Recruits/Spawner 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 Brood Year Pass Pass Fail Fail Fail Pass Lower Snake Spring Chinook 2
Big Sheep - Snake Spring Chinook The Big Sheep population failed the abundance and reproductive independence and productivity criteria, and passed the remaining criteria. Abundance in the Big Sheep was represented by spawning surveys in index reaches. Hatchery-to-wild ratios in the Big Sheep have not been well documented. However, surplus hatchery adults from the Imnaha weir have been outplanted into the population in recent years, and releases of hatchery presmolts have been made into the subbasin. District biologists believe that greater than 5% of the natural spawning population has been made up of hatchery spawners in recent years. Limited recoveries of marked and unmarked carcasses during spawning surveys over the last three years support the conclusion that hatchery fractions are high. Abundance (Redds/mile) 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 24 Pass Pass Fail Fail Fail Pass Lower Snake Spring Chinook 21