European Parliament June 2013 Living with wolves in EU: challenges and strategies in wolf management across Europe

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1 European Parliament June 2013 Living with wolves in EU: challenges and strategies in wolf management across Europe LUIGI BOITANI, Chair Large Carnivore Initiative for Europe University of Rome

2 LCIE, an IUCN/SSC Specialist Group on the European Large Carnivores Bear Wolf Eurasian lynx Wolverine Iberian lynx To maintain and restore, in coexistence with people, viable populations of large carnivores as an integral part of ecosystems and landscapes across Europe

3 Wolf extermination in Europe 1770 (range in 1960s ) 1927

4 Wolf distribution in Europe 2006

5 2013 Karelian Wolf Scandinavian distribution in Europe Central European Lowlands Carpathian NW Iberian Alpine Sierra Morena Italian Peninsula Dinaric Balkan

6 Main wolf populations in Europe 2013 Scandinavian Karelian Central European Lowlands Carpathian NW Iberian Alpine Sierra Morena Italian Peninsula Dinaric Balkan

7 European wolf populations Wolf populations Trend Iberia Decrease? Sierra Morena 50 1 pack Decrease Western-Central Alps packs (>160) Increase Italian peninsula Stable Dinaric-Balkan Stable? Carpathian Stable Baltic/(Belorussia-Russia) 1000-(5000) Stable? Germany/Western Poland Increase Finland-Russian Karelia ? Decrease Scandinavia Increase

8 Wolf number/trend in Europe 2012 POPULATION Last size estimate 2005 Scandinavian Sweden: (+24 cross-border) Norway: 21 TOTAL: Most recent estimate (2010, 2011 or 2012) Sweden: (including cross border individuals) Norway: TOTAL: Trend Increase Karelian Finland: Finland: Decrease Baltic Estonia: 110 Latvia: ~300 Lithuania: 355 Poland: 200 ~1000 Central EU Lowlands Germany: 6 Poland: 13 TOTAL: 19 Carpathian Slovakia: Romania: 2500 Poland: 290 Czech Republic: ~10 Hungary: Dinaric- Balkan Slovenia: Croatia: Bosnia: 600 Bulgaria: 2,000-3,000 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia : Serbia: Greece: 650 Albania: TOTAL: 5000 Estonia: 230±30 Latvia: 300±100 Lithuania: 300±100 Poland: ~ Germany: 14 packs Poland: 17 packs TOTAL: ~170 Slovakia: 1,823 (but likely inaccurate) Romania: Poland: Czech Republic: 2-4 Slovenia: 43 (CI 39-50) Croatia: Bosnia: 650 Bulgaria: 1,000 (but official estimate is 2,026) The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia : 267 Serbia: 800±50 Greece: no updated data Albania: (likely overestimate) TOTAL: Stable to increasing Increase Likely stable, but trend assessment hindered by methodological problems Likely stable, but trend assessment hindered by methodological problems

9 Wolf number/trend in Europe 2012 POPULATION Last size estimate 2005 Italian Peninsula TOTAL: Alpine France: Italy: no info Swiss: 3 TOTAL: ~ NW Iberian Spain: ~2000 Portugal: ~ TOTAL: ~ Most recent estimate (2010, 2011 or 2012) TOTAL: France: 200+ Italy: 70 Swiss: 8 TOTAL: 32 packs (>250) No recent estimates of total population size. Only for some regions: Basque Country, Catalona, Castilla-La-Mancha, Madrid. TOTAL: no recent update Sierra Morena TOTAL: pack detected in 2010, none in 2011 (by wolf howling) TOTAL: no pack Trend Stable Increase Possible decrease, but trend assessment hindered by lack of updated population estimates. Spain: recent estimates only from small part of range Portugal: decrease of breeding packs from recent surveys conducted in specific areas (Trásos-Montes area, South Douro river area) Decrease or population already extinct

10 Wolf densities in Croatia (2004) N + = + + = - - = Wolf population density ( N / 100 k m 2 ) Croatia Land Sea Island + W E S K i l o m e t e r s

11 Wolves killed in Croatia No. of dead individuals *Round average - width 5 No - of de ad wo lve s Year

12 Wolves in France 2010

13 Wolves in France 2010

14 Wolf packs in the Italian Western Alps

15 Wolf numbers in the Italian Western Alps ( ) N branchi # packs Branchi IT-FR Branchi Torino Branchi Cuneo # wolves 60 N Lupi solitari Regione 50 N Lupi VG N Lupi Orsiera N Lupi VC N Lupi N Lupi Bardonecchia N Lupi Gran Bosco N Lupi V.Gesso N Lupi V.Varaita N Lupi Val Maira N Lupi Val Grana N Lupi Bassa V.Tanaro 10 N Lupi Alta V.Tanaro N Lupi V.Casotto N Lupi V.Stura Bassa N Lupi V.Stura Alta N Lupi V.Pesio Inizio Inverno Fine Inverno

16 Habitat suitability for wolves in the Alps

17 Wolf in Germany Turin 24. May : 1 pack 2009: 7 packs, 3 pairs, 5 singles confirmed wolf presence (single wolves / pairs) area with confirmed reproduction

18 Wolf litters in Finland Dispersal

19 The obsession of numbers Quality of numbers depends on methods and context Numbers are of limited use without an estimate of error Numbers are useless to estimate impact on prey To get reliable numbers costs a fortune so why bother counting animals?? Numbers are good only to set quotas (but only if you have also many other demographic parameters!!!)

20 The obsession of numbers: a critical difference Population size Populations trend census methods index of abundance

21 Wolf trends in Europe

22 Conservation status and legal means 2008 Red List of IUCN (vulnerable) CITES App. II (potentially endangered) 1979 Bern Convention (strictly protected)* 1992 EU Habitat Directive (fully protected)* National laws (* exceptions in Spain, Greece, Finland, )

23 Wolf recovery depends on a combination of factors Which are the factors involved? the wolf itself (biological adaptability, resilience), change in landuse patterns increase of wild prey conservation efforts

24 Dispersal of M15 March 2004 February days km

25 Wolf dispersal in the Italian Alps

26 A flexible and variable diet

27 Can wolf recovery in Europe be considered a management success? Increases in range and numbers of wolves already occurred in recent history (postwar periods) but were followed by intensive eradication efforts

28 Can wolf recovery in Europe be considered a management success? Problem #1: fragmentation of management policies Enforcement of the Bern Convention relies on the contracting parties; individual countries may make reservations to the Convention Wolf management at national/sub-national level great diversity of management philosophy and action: full/partial protection, game species, zoning, problem wolf removal, etc.

29 Transboundary cooperation in the Alps Wolf and Lynx Wolf Alpine Group (WAG) and SCALP

30 Not all borders are international the case of federal states! e.g. wolf range in Spain

31 Can wolf recovery in Europe be considered a management success? Problem #2: law enforcement Law is poorly enforced in almost all countries where the wolf is fully protected and poaching is common Laissez-faire management in some countries (Mediterranean); illegal killing replaces active management: benign neglect management system, is it a solution?

32 Can wolf recovery in Europe be considered a management success? Problem #3: Wolf-livestock interactions persisting (increasing) wolf-livestock conflicts controversial (negative) attitudes ways to deal with the problem are different: - compensation programs - livestock supporting systems (i.e., subsidies) - kind and distribution of livestock differ throughout Europe - ecological and socio-economic conditions are different

33 LC-livestock conflicts

34 Attacks in France Number of attacks to flocks (wolves - France)

35 Wolf impact on livestock in Europe (annual estimate, 2012) Bear Lynx Wolf mil heads reindeer - 5 mil mil incentives heads reindeer - 8 mil heads 1/2 in Norway ¾ in Norway + prevention costs (e.g. 7 mil in France)

36 Livestock predation can be a very serious problem to marginal economies

37 Traditional conflict prevention methods

38 Prevention of predation: electric fences

39 Livestock predation management: 4 basic types of action 1) Prevention of predation 2) Mitigation of damages 3) Control (of predators) 4) Research on all + Monitoring and evaluation, of course

40 Livestock depredation and compensation programs in Italy originally meant to alleviate social conflict not to reduce depredations! currently not effective in reducing the conflict, nor in preventing illegal wolf control In general: Compensation programs (CP): - no comprehensive strategy to reduce the conflict - no incentives to adopt preventive measures - no conditions for reimbursement - complexity of reimbursement procedure

41 There is no single recipe to manage the wolf-human interface Every local situation has a different management solutions (often more than one) Attempts of applying management solutions developed elsewhere are often bound to failure

42 Can wolf recovery in Europe be considered a management success? Problem #4: Wolf-human relationship hunting and poaching tolerance and prejudices positions highly polarized coexistence often has an impact on: habitat quality and food availability small numbers, low densities and demographic fluctuations fragmentation and shape of the range

43 Can wolf recovery in Europe be considered a management success? Problem #5: Large scale (and un-fragmented) factors affecting wolf management Positive: EU policies on Species protection Protected areas Negative: EU policies on human health: milk and meat processing agriculture: set-aside, rural landscape livestock: economic subsidies to heads and market support

44 Livestock is largely subsidized

45 Free-ranging dogs and hybridization

46 Can wolf recovery in Europe be considered a management success? Broad conclusions: It is hardly a success. It is rather a lucky coincidence of biological and historical factors All major conservation issues are not satisfactorily solved (often not even approached) The current positive trend can easily be reversed

47 The way forward Any chance of success? Little, if implementation is not guided by management plans Some, if implementation is at least by wolf population (Guidelines for population level management plans, LCIE 2007)

48 European Union Habitats Directive Bern Convention Council of Europe Despite the existence of two pan European bodies management scales for both conservation planning and assessment have remained at national (or sub-national) scales.

49 Management scale We need to work towards a large scale and more biological approach to management. Requires coordinating the management of all administrative units that biological populations stretch across. This is what we call the population approach and it always requires some form of transboundary cooperation Intra-national borders between provinces, counties, states, protected areas and non-protected areas.. Inter-national borders between countries and between international bodies (e.g. EU and non EU neighbours).

50 Main wolf populations in Europe 2012 Scandinavian Karelian Central European Lowlands Carpathian NW Iberian Alpine Sierra Morena Italian Peninsula Dinaric Balkan

51 Guidelines for Population Level Management Plans for Large Carnivores in Europe Large Carnivore Initiative for Europe (John D. C. Linnell, Luigi Boitani, Valeria Salvatori, Manuela von Arx)

52 WOLF transboundary population management Scandinavian Karelian Baltic A No cooperation at all or very small cooperation Central European Lowlands Carpathian B Some occasional technical cooperation NW Iberian Alpine Dinaric Balkan C Regular technical and/or some management cooperation D Joint management plan for the transboundary population Sierra Morena Italian Peninsula

53 What future for wolves in Europe? Not just how many wolves, BUT, also What level of wolf-human conflict can Europe tolerate? Where?

54 Wolf-livestock conflicts An Economic carrying capacity defined by the cost of wolf-livestock conflicts replace natural ecological carrying capacity for wolves in many (eco)-systems with human presence. This may imply limiting the potential ecological role of wolves!!!

55 LCIE mission: To maintain and restore, in coexistence with people, viable populations of large carnivores as an integral part of the ecosystems and landscapes across Europe (

56 Population level management (More) large carnivores in wider ranges Good science to inform political decisions Management of biological populations Hunting and lethal control can be acceptable to maintain coexistence Conservation with people s support Freedom within frames

57 A renewed strategy of tolerance

58 Resources and documents Status, management and distribution of large carnivores bear, lynx, wolf & wolverine in Europe. Kazcensky et al. (Eds) Large carnivore conservation and management in Europe: the contribution of EC co-funded LIFE projects. V. Salvatori Towards a population level approach for the management of large carnivores in Europe. Challenges and opportunities. JC Blanco (Ed) From conflict to coexistence? Insights from multi-disciplinary research into the relationships between people, large carnivores and institutions. JC Linnell